Geopolitics: Russia’s sloppy invasion of Georgia last year and its subsequent problems in holding the tiny slivers of Georgian territory that it occupies have exposed the Slavic giant’s military weakness. This in turn has reignited a nasty Islamic insurgency centered on Chechnya, a Russian republic that borders Georgia. Increasingly Chechen police and government officials are being attacked by jihadists and the nascent insurgency is slowly spreading to neighboring Russian republics throughout the north Caucus region. Chechnya was where Al Qaeda first cut its teeth, its first big battleground outside of Afghanistan. So it has deep roots in the region. The modern meaning of the term “Jihad” arose during the original Chechen War in the 90s. The Russian Army at that time probably killed over 100,000 Muslims, the vast majority innocent civilians that died under the rain of idiotic carpet bombing and mindless rocket barrages, sowing the seeds of a deep and abiding hatred.
The flare-up of this Russian Islamic hotspot is part of a larger picture. In the past few weeks there has been an Islamic flare-up in the southern Philippines, led by the Jihadist group Abu Sayyaf, who has begun a wicked bombing campaign on the outer islands that experts say resembles the work of Jemaah Islamiah (the group that just bombed two Indonesian hotels a few days ago). So the recent Indonesian suicide bombings probably originated in the Philippines and the campaign is seemingly spreading throughout Southeast Asia like a cancer. Abu Sayyaf cut its teeth in the 80s in Afghanistan fighting Soviet Russia and is directly linked to Al Qaeda as is Jemaah Islamiah. Even today the Taliban in Afghanistan claim that any Afghani opposing it is a communist.
The goal of all these Al Qaeda linked groups is to create a “Caliphate,” that is to carve an Islamic dictatorship out of existing countries. And then use the newly created Caliphate as a base for further expansion. America’s job is to prevent this from happening on every part of the planet that is threatened. Regional stock markets will react to the success or failure of the superpower and its allies in this grand endeavor.
On Friday the moderate and powerful Iranian cleric, Rafsanjani, gave a national sermon blasting Ahmadinejad and more subtly, the Ayatollah. This triggered more clashes between Iranian dissenters and government security forces, probably resulting in extensive bloodshed although the media is muzzled so hard there a body count is impossible. This is a bullish turn of events because the Iranian theocracy is suffering a thousand little cuts not one big body slam, raising the possibility of a “velvet revolution.” America must do whatever it can to look like it is not helping Rafsanjani.
Hillary is getting involved in the embryonic peace talks between Pakistan and India, although she is denying any involvement. If these talks succeed and Pakistan can move several hundred soldiers off the Indian frontier and into combat against the bad guys it would be incredibly good news. 7/18/09