Geopolitics: The UN was negotiating a peace deal with the Afghan Taliban when the CIA and ISI arrested the Taliban’s lead negotiator, #2 Chieftain Mullah Baradar, supposedly destroying the chance for a diplomatic end to the Long War. Darn. Along the same lines, last week CIA drones killed several leaders of the North Waziristan Taliban. The NW Taliban has been actively negotiating a peace treaty with Afghan President Karzai, probably a deal was close before the drones hit Taliban houses and cars with 3 separate salvos of Hellfire missiles. The peace deal literally went up in flames. A Pattern is clear, whenever one of the Talibans makes serious progress in crafting a peace treaty with one of America’s weak-kneed junior partners, the CIA arrests or kills the bad guy leaders trying to hammer out a peace treaty. In all probability the mere act of negotiating exposes the bad guy leaders to danger since the UN or Karzai’s government is easily infiltrated by the CIA and ISI. Going forward, UN diplomats or Karzai’s diplomats will probably also be in danger if they try to negotiate a peace deal with a Taliban chieftain because CIA Director Panetta has publically said he is willing to strike bad guys in urban areas at any time. And yet Gen. McChrystal says he is open to peace talks with the Taliban. This is just spin from McChrystal.
By destroying peace deals, the CIA is controlling public opinion in America. If American voters learned of a peace treaty between Karzai and the Taliban, they would demand US troops come home immediately. Of course any peace treaty wouldn’t be worth the paper it’s written on and US troops would have to return someday in bigger numbers. This is exactly what happened to Pakistan in the Swat Valley and elsewhere.
The Long War is not going well in the Caucus Mountains of Russia. The heart of the Caucus Islamic insurgency, Chechnya, is relatively stable but the rebellion is spreading outward. The hardest hit region is Dagestan. The number of police officers killed by bad guys in Dagestan doubled between 2008 and 2009. In a vicious cycle, the bad guys wreck the local economy and then enjoy a rush of recruits from jobless young men, which allows them to wreck the economy even more. This is one of the reasons why the Russian stock market has a very low P/E ratio.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
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