Is Dave Wrong About China?

Long War: The New York Times reports that the Taliban have control over the main road linking Tajikistan with northern Afghanistan. Much of the Afghan war now revolves around US Special Forces night raids in the north, targeting bad guy leaders. Obviously bad guys are flowing up out of Kandahar and into the "Stans," former Soviet Republics north of Afghanistan. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) is a Taliban ally that has been fighting in Afghanistan and tribal Pakistan for years but has strong roots in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. IMU is beginning to rear its ugly head.
There have been at least 4 CIA drone strikes in North Waziristan so far in 2011 with about 20 bad guys killed. The rats are jumping off the sinking ship, but there is another ship that they are jumping on to. At some point US Special Forces and the CIA will need to make land and drone strikes in the Stans. From 1992-1997 there was an Islamist civil war in Tajikistan (100,000 dead) and nobody there wants to go through that again. So it will be a diplomatic nightmare to get permission to push the LAD (Land and Drone campaign) north.
Long War violence seems to be ratcheting up away from the two epicenters of the global conflict (Kandahar and Yemen). Al Qaeda in Egypt successfully executed a big terror strike. Al Qaeda in Turkey tried and failed to do the same. AQIM (Al Qaeda North Africa) is also gaining strength, possibly reaching out to bad guys in Nigeria.

Cold War II: I have said that China is like the ancient Persian Empire to America's Rome. Some analysts liken China's military rise to late 19th century Germany's. Others say that the current bit of Sino bellicosity is a tempest in a teacup, fueled by an impending leadership change in Beijing that will transpire over the next couple years. The new younger leaders will be more free market oriented and less militaristic. The old guard knows this and wants to tack the Asian giant hard to the right before these softies take over. By this logic Cold War II will simmer down in a few years.
Buttressing this argument is the fact that no great expansionist power in history has ever had more economic links and interests with its enemies than China vs. the US and its allies. If Cold War II became a hot war, China's economy would be crushed, unless the war were so big as to mobilize the masses.
The most worrisome aspect about China's new found aggression is that reunification with Taiwan is gathering tremendous momentum. All China has to do is cool it and the reunification will become inevitable. If China can get the one island that it really wants why does it then say it also wants this other island and that other island? Once the six-party talks start the picture will become more clear. If the talks go well then Cold War II will get put on the back burner.