Will Obama Pull in His Horns?

Libya War: Last week NATO jets vaporized a rebel armored column just as it was about to punch a hole through Gaddafi's line outside the key oil city of Brega. Capitalizing on this gift, Gaddafi's army smashed the rebels back across 50 miles of open desert and pushed them into the city of Ajdabiyah, the last line of defense before the rebel capitol city Benghazi. While this was going on a British military spokesman said Britain did not know the rebels had tanks, hence the friendly fire incident. If we are to take this statement at face value it means that NATO does not have spotters on the ground or any intelligence assets at all; the CIA operatives that were on the ground in Libya have either left or they are not communicating with NATO.

Early Saturday the rebels flew a MIG-23 at Gaddafi's juggernaut and NATO intercepted the good guy warplane, forcing it back behind rebel lines (!). NATO then primly said the No-Fly Zone applies to both the rebels and Gaddafi. At that point any rational observer is tearing his hair out and screaming curses at NATO. But then the Atlantic alliance launched a blitz against Gaddafi and quickly destroyed 25 bad guy tanks and scores of ammo bunkers. This stopped the imminent collapse of rebel positions in Ajdabiyah and Misrata, which would have spelled the end to the war with Gaddafi triumphant.

The African Union has a delegation in Tripoli right now and these good guys are negotiating with Gaddafi. This coming Wednesday the Libya Contact Group is meeting with the government of Qatar to discuss the Libya War. It is possible that Qattar and/or the AU will provide troops to help the rebels. The Qattari Army/AU could push Gaddafi back with relative ease but this happening is not a forgone conclusion. We need to understand what motivates Qatar.

Qatar sits on top the largest natural gas field in the world. Qatar has roughly 13% of the planet's natural gas reserves. Iran also sits on top the same gigantic gas field and periodically rumbles about wanting the whole field to itself. For this reason Qatar fears Iran the way Singapore fears China. Both of these tiny countries try to infuse America with backbone to counter the regional monsters they fear so badly. If America were to totally pull in its horns and curl into an isolationist ball, then both Singapore and Qatar would have no choice but to strike alliances with China and Iran respectively. So Qatar will not come to the rescue in Libya if it thinks America is rolling over 100%.

The Rest of The Long War: When America or NATO assert themselves in the Libya War, the rest of the Long War calms down. And when the great powers get weak-kneed, the whole Long War boils over. We are in a weak-kneed phase and briefly this is what we are seeing... Moderate Islamic clerics are being assassinated in the Caucasus region of Russia. The Taliban is attacking the Pak Army along the tribal belt in much greater numbers than usual. Rage rebels across the Mideast are in a fury, with plenty of bloodshed. Hamas is launching a full-fledged war against Israel, although fighting died down Sunday. To save space let's go into detail in just one hot spot: Iraq.

North of Baghdad, on the Iran/Iraq border, the CIA maintains a big camp of anti-Iranian rebels called MEK. These guerrilla fighters act as a sword of Damocles dangling over the Iranians, a permanent threat that helps keep the bad guys in line. Last week the Iraqi Army attacked the MEK camp and killed scores of good guy fighters. The Iraqi Army is now blockading the MEK camp and America is protesting this action. This is a direct attack on a CIA asset and a move toward Iraq allying with Iran. At the same time the pro-Iranian Iraqi Shiite cleric, Sadr, is threatening to reform his Mahdi army and restart the insurgency against the American occupation. Sadr's threat is probably the reason why Iraqi PM Maliki attacked the MEK camp. Maliki was throwing a bone to Sadr, hoping to avoid another round of sectarian civil war.

If America were to withdraw tomorrow from Iraq, then the Kurds and Arabs in northern Iraq would probably go to war against each other overnight. In that case huge oil fields would probably be set ablaze, oil would screech up to $200 a barrel and the world would plunge into another recession. Not to mention all the other Long War hot spots that are currently boiling over would explode.

The Big Picture: Obama suffered a terrible blow over the weekend when Congress agreed to $38 billion in spending cuts. Now there is momentum for more cuts and Obama-Care is in danger. The hard left is already furious at Obama for what he has done so far in fighting the Long War. If Obama were to take the wood to Gaddafi, then America's left wing would grow apathetic and wouldn't fight hard to protect Obama-Care. Without the left fighting hard to preserve it, Obama-Care will get repealed. Obama does not want to be remembered as a great Democrat warrior who clobbered the bad guys but failed to expand social programs, like Harry Truman.

The Good News: Nigeria just had its cleanest election ever. There was a time when the stock market wanted to see American right wing puppet dictatorships flourish. That boat has sailed. Now we are in an era where either democracy makes inroads or everything falls to hell in a hand basket. On that note, the French Army is fighting hard against anti-democratic forces in the Ivory Coast. If France prevails there it will be good news.