Charts: If the US budget crisis is resolved we will want to buy stocks by using chart analysis. Over the years the KOSPI (Korea) index has led the indexes of Singapore and Taiwan. In other words, Korea moves first and the others follow. YTD Korea is up 8% and Taiwan is down 2%. EWT is the ticker symbol for Taiwan.
Fundamentals: In a whining tone, President Obama gave a speech last night where he begged America to support his vision of pretending to cut the budget after the elections are over. Then House Speaker Boehner gave a speech with a grim face outlining a plan for painful cuts before the election and then more cuts after the election. Boehner promises more unpleasant debate starting now and continuing for years. His plan will make the election about budget cuts. Boehner represents "The Man." You know, the guy starry-eyed left wing college students sell out to when they start making money. In day to day life The Man tells young people to cut up their credit cards and pay cash. If you don't have the cash, go without. The Man is no fun.
Long War: Red-faced, the Pentagon is saying billions of dollars in US Afghan military support contracts have flowed straight into the pockets of the Taliban. America's allies in Afghanistan are corrupt and lazy because aid money and contracts have been thrown around the same way pork barrel spending sloshes around in the US.
In Libya, the Free Libya Army is acquiring a few mine clearing vehicles but 90% of the mine clearing is done by small groups of soldiers poking into sand dunes with sticks while braving withering fire from Gaddafi's Army. These soldiers don't even wear body armor. The FLA doesn't get billion dollar pork barrel contracts from Uncle Sam, just training, leadership, and some limited material support. Yet the FLA is winning while the Afghan Army flounders. You can call this approach The Man or tough love or old school CIA; either way this is the approach that works.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
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