Through The Lens of The Long War II

Long War: Through QE2, the Empire (America) tried to tax its provinces by debasing its currency; exactly as its predecessor (ancient Rome) did so many times. The only way a tax like this can stick is if the Empire keeps winning its wars. Is the tax hike sticking? Is America forcing its debt down the world's throat? The S&P downgrade of America's debt was followed by the biggest one day combat loss ever in Afghanistan. Not only did 31 Navy SEALs die as a Taliban RPG took out a transport helicopter, there were 4 other combat deaths that day from separate firefights. Even though financial writers will make no connection between the combat losses in Afghanistan and the debt downgrade, the markets are making a connection, which is amplifying the ongoing stock market correction. Several country stock markets have already been pushed deep into bear territory.

But also over the weekend the CIA backed African Union Army and pro-American Islamic militias seized control of 90% of Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, dealing Al-Qaeda backed Al-Shabab a nearly mortal blow.

And the Libya rebels have seized a key town which opens up the invasion route to Tripoli, even as they battle Gaddafi/Al-Qaeda sleeper cells that have been activated within the rebel heartland. Overall, a good situation in Libya but clearly not enough CIA presence if bad guy sleeper cells exist inside good guy territory.

So CIA-only Long War hotspots are doing okay.

The recent economic weakness is very good for Al-Qaeda, just as the Great Depression was very good for European Fascism. With oil prices falling, Mideastern economies will only get worse and the ranks of the bad guys will swell. With a nearly infinite pool of jihadist fighters to draw upon, the Long War is morphing into a structure that can not be dealt with by conventional Western military forces.

But the demands on the CIA are many times greater than its capacity and the US Congress is still interfering in Company business, exhibiting an isolationist streak that can only be described as toxic. One example: the rebels in Syria need to be supported by the CIA and they need to win. If Assad wins, then Iran's power is vastly multiplied. Iran is already attacking Iraq by supporting Shiite insurgents. If Iraq were surrounded by both a hostile Iran and Syria, the attacks would soon come from two directions and a conventional invasion would not be far off and the price of oil would reach $300 a barrel.

There are only two ways this dire situation can be rectified: Either Congress increases the CIA's budget by ten times or it absolutely untethers the CIA from all control, a complete free hand in all Company affairs. A sign of this latter possibility would be if DEA agents were pulled out of Afghanistan and somehow media attention is curtailed from the CIA's take over of the world's heroin trade as it tears this cash cow away from the Taliban.