Monday, August 13, 2012

Moral Superiority Part II

Syrian Civil War: The FSA rebels (good guys) have downed a Syrian fighter jet with a manpad missile. So the CIA is almost certainly giving the rebels surface to air missiles. If this is true, then the media will eventually sleuth out that the missiles are being paid for by Qatar, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia. This doesn't mean that the missiles aren't being green lighted by Langley, just that tracks are being laid to disguise the ultimate source.

The rebels say that Al-Qaeda is indeed fighting on their side but Jihadist brigades are isolated from other brigades and are in effect quarantined from the bulk of the FSA to avoid infection, in an almost medical fashion. The idea is that once Assad is overthrown there will be a second war against Al-Qaeda and this quarantine structure will make it possible to win that war. The FSA needs Al-Qaeda fighters because they are the best of the best and bring crucial skills to the battlefield. Of course this is dancing with the devil and of course it is a dangerous game to play. The Long War is a dangerous game to play and without good bad guys we would be in worse shape than we already are.

Hillary Clinton and Turkey's top leaders are talking about opening a no-fly-zone over Syria. If this were to happen, then Assad would be defeated within a few months. It is 100% the right thing to do. The Jordanian Army has already clashed with Assad's Syrian Army once, the longer this war drags on the wider it will become until it starts consuming oil fields and pushes the global economy into a recession. It is impossible to overstate how positive an American-Turkish no-fly-zone would be. Hillary then has to somehow infuse Obama with a set. This is a big challenge because Obama runs scared before elections.

Assad's army has backed off on trying to take the key Salaheddine district with a massive infantry assault. He is once again standing back and pounding it with heavy weapons. Assad has taken about 90% of Salaheddine and about 50% of Aleppo as a whole. I remind you that the Battle of Aleppo is the most important Long War battle by a huge margin right now. It is everything.

Assad seemingly cannot put soldiers up one for one against the rebels for any length of time because the rebels are willing to die for their cause and Assad's soldiers are not. The rebels have gigantic moral superiority. Assad advantage is the possession of fighter jets, helicopters, artillery, armored personal carriers, and tanks; none of which the rebels have. But setting up a no-fly-zone or giving the rebels advanced manpad missiles will help eliminate Assad's advantage. Small portable missiles are problematic because Al-Qaeda is fighting on the rebels side. A no-fly-zone is the best answer then, but it is the most unlikely politically because only Hillary has a set in the Obama Administration. So you need the CIA and Special Forces in there with missiles.

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