Long War Wild Card? Not Really

Long War: The anti-Islamic U-tube video, Innocence of The Muslims, has ignited massive violence and unrest across the Muslim world. It seems to be a wild card, a freak occurrence beyond the control or planning of the good guys. This is not really the case since at any one time there are hundreds of anti-Islamic videos, poems, cartoons, and so forth floating around the web. The bad guys are simply riding trend lines that are well established and predictable.

What we need to do is understand how this latest Long War flare-up fits into the big picture. The first thing to jump out is the assassination by AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) of a US ambassador and other personnel in Libya. AQIM had cells in place inside Libya to take advantage of any opportunity like this video at a moments notice. AQIM controls about 2/3 of Mali, an area bigger than France. AQIM has its own country and is more than a regional power, but a global one. We already knew all that but we have further proof now.

Team Obama is now debating whether or not the CIA should extend its drone program down this side of Africa into Libya and beyond, whether it should take on AQIM or not. In time the US will of course go hammer and tongs after AQIM, but not for a while because we have Obama cowardliness surfacing before the election. I remind you of my prediction that the CIA drone program will someday engulf most of Africa.

The offending video was financed by Egyptian Coptic Christians. This shows that the LW is taking on a more religious tone as the bad guys move down the coasts of Africa toward South Africa, which is a militantly Christian nation with massive military potential and firepower. The more religious the LW gets the hotter and more violent it will get and the risk of big conventional wars increases. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

This means certain  energy stocks might do well and in time certain defense stocks will too once America gets past the fiscal cliff.