North Korean Nuke

Cold War II: North Korea has successfully tested a miniaturized nuclear warhead. This took analysts by surprise. Previously North Korea has struggled with detonating primitive Hiroshima type A-bombs. This is a bit of big game-changer but not that momentous. North Korea will in the near future be able to target nuclear missiles on Japan and the Western United States. Beyond the capability this will give North Korea itself we can surmise that Iran will eventually get nuclear warheads that it can use with its already robust ballistic missiles, threatening Israel. The only way the US and Japan can counter this new threat is to expand their respective Aegis class anti-missile warship fleets. Despite the frenzy of military cuts we are experiencing right now the Aegis fleet will in time be expanded because public opinion will force the issue and Aegis technology will neutralize the bad guys' nascent nuclear arsenals.

Long War: The Syrian rebels have just captured the largest hydroelectric facility in the country. They just captured 24 fighter jets from Assad. They are mounting a powerful offensive against Assad on his home turf in Damascus. They are cutting off Assad's supply lines. The rebels are slowly advancing on all fronts. The credit for most of this goes to Qatari Intelligence, no doubt working hand in glove with the CIA. The endgame is probably still a year away but the rebels will win. Most conventional LW wars turn into guerrilla wars after the good guys win. This will probably happen with Syria because Iran will be working day and night to support an Assad guerrilla movement. Qatar will have to stay involved in Syria and battle Iran for the foreseeable future.

In Thailand, starting about three weeks ago, we saw an explosion of jihadist violence. The good guys were knocked back on their heels but have recently regrouped and are now taking the wood to the rebels, stopping at least one big terror strike in its track and wiping out all the bad guys in the process.

Hanging over all LW battlefields is the fate of the CIA leadership and the nomination of Brennan to Director. If Brennan is canned it will get hairy in jihadist land.