Geopolitics: The title of most dangerous bad guy on the planet now goes to Doku Umarov, leader of the Chechen Islamic revolution in Russia’s North Caucasus region. Umarov ordered the twin suicide bombings in Moscow 2 days ago and today 11 people (including several police officers) were killed in Dagestan, a N. Caucasus region boiling with a low level but steadily increasing Islamic insurgency. The number of deaths at the hands of insurgents in Dagestan has doubled year over year and is set to double again this year.
This is what Umarov is saying on his website: “As you all know on March 29 in Moscow, two special operations were carried out to destroy the infidels and send a greeting to the FSB.” FSB is the new name for KGB.
The Chechen insurgency was originally motivated by nationalism and the desire for a separate (non-Russian) nation based on ethnicity. Under Umarov’s leadership the movement is now based purely on radical Islam, the desire for a Taliban style government that encompasses the N. Caucasus region. Umarov talks constantly of establishing a “Caliphate.” I think he is successfully trying to lock in his leadership role in front of a gigantic influx of bad guys from the Afpak region. And here’s why:
Combing the Pak media for Tuesday’s body count is frustrating because so many bad guys are getting killed nobody can accurately count them. Pak Air Force jets, Pak Army helicopters and artillery killed about 60 bad guys on Tuesday. Pakistan’s tribal lands have become a bad guy meat grinder.
The long term danger is that the good guys declare victory at some point in Afpak and ignore the deteriorating situation in the peripheral battle zones of the Long War. The short term danger is the bad guys attack Russia's energy pipelines into Europe, cutting off supplies, and triggering huge price increases worldwide.
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