Keep Fighting If You Are Winning

Long War: Reports that Al-Qaeda had set up shop in the Libyan town of Durna has sent reporters scrambling to find the truth. They got hold of the former Gitmo detainee who was supposed to be the Emir of the new Islamic Emirate and this guy said the whole story is false. He seems pretty eager not to be locked up in Gitmo again. On the other hand, Durna has been used as a staging ground for jihadist fighters in the past. Libya is locked in the grip of a savage civil war and we won't know the truth until the dust settles. We do, however, know exactly what is happening in Afghanistan and ultimately this battlefront is more important than any other in the Long War.
The Afghan winter has been very mild, so mild that there has been no lull in the fighting, which is highly unusual. Around Kandahar and Helmand province the Taliban leadership has been essentially gutted. Over the past 4 months there have been over 2000 Special Forces night raids against Taliban chieftains. Two chieftains are killed or captured every week and 120 weapon caches are seized every week. With their leaders slain, large numbers of Taliban fighting units are routinely surrendering every week. The Taliban is splintering under this onslaught. The Haqqani network is faring better and has vowed to fight to the death. With this reversal in the Taliban's fortune, southern Afghanistan's economy is coming back to life as farmers go back to the plow, schools start to reopen, and even small industrial operations spring to life.
American and NATO success in Afghanistan does indeed pose an enormous danger to AQIM in North Africa. They know that American voters can become quite bellicose if they think their team is winning. If these voters believe that Iraq and Afghanistan can be put in the win column, then there will be a reluctant acceptance of American troops landing on the beaches of Libya.