Obama Screws Up

Long War: Pres. Obama's big speech on the so-called Arab Spring (or Rage Rebellion) included this sentence: "If you take the risk that reform entails, you will have the full support of the United States."

That translates to: If your rebel movement can make as much headway as the Free Libya movement did, then the US will impose a No-Fly Zone over your country and provide covert (CIA) support to your cause. His speech went on to say that heavy US support would not be forthcoming in the Gulf, where all the authoritarian governments are US allies.

This leaves three countries where Obama implies the US might provide the same level of anti-government support that it does to Libya: Syria, Yemen, and North Sudan. Obama is essentially declaring war on these three countries. Except the President doesn't mean what he said in any way, shape, or form. Maybe adding this line was a mistake. A ton of changes were made to the speech at the last second. In any case, the dictators of Yemen and North Sudan can't take any chances that Obama is just kidding so they both went on the offensive over the weekend.

North Sudan invaded and seized the disputed town of Abyei, the centerpiece to the multi-decade Sudanese conflict. This is likely to restart the Sudanese Civil War (SCW). If this happens it will be a huge setback in the Long War. If the SCW does indeed start back up and the Libya Civil War is still going on, then there could be an alliance between N. Sudan leader Bashir and Gaddafi. The US and NATO would then be forced to back South Sudan and the Libya war would widen. Liberals in Europe and America would go insane at the prospects of the NATO mission widening in North Africa.

Also in response to Obama's speech the government of Yemen seems to have taken US, British and Allied Arab diplomats hostage. I'm getting this hot off the wire so maybe it isn't as bad as all that. Still, it doesn't sound good.

Obama's speech is proving to be a huge mistake.