Surge in Long War Violence

Long War: Equity markets are (for now) ignoring the overall bad situation in the LW. The price of oil, however, continues to trade at elevated levels and this is due mostly to the recent big surge in LW violence.

North Sudan is locked into a relatively large war in the disputed province of South Kordofan and a small war in Blue Nile. North Sudan is not at war with South Sudan, but rather with tribes allied to South Sudan in the two disputed provinces. The US is restraining South Sudan and trying to get Ethiopia to install peacekeepers in the disputed provinces. It looks as though North Sudan is using the peace talks with Ethiopia as a delaying tactic to keep pounding S. Kordofan. South Sudan will only put up with this for so long and appeasement never works. The possibility of full-scale war between North and South Sudan is at least 50/50.

The nearly century old Sudanese conflict pits African Muslims against African Christians and has its roots all the way back to the crusades. Nigeria has seen a huge increase in Muslim on Christian terror strikes in the past couple weeks. This is directly linked to violence in Sudan. Nigerian oil infrastructure has not been hit yet by Islamic radicals, but this would be the next step if Sudan descended into full-scale war. Nigeria is a major oil supplier.

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has seized control over the Yemeni province of Abyan. As I write the Yemeni Air Force is bombing AQAP positions in Abyan cities. The truncated Yemeni government of deposed pro-American dictator Saleh says it needs help against AQAP soon or it will be directly threatened by AQAP.

The CIA and US Army Special Forces have mounted a robust drone campaign in Yemen and this campaign has recently expanded to Somalia because AQAP has also expanded into Somalia, reaching out to Al-Shabab.

There is good news, the Pakistan Army has mounted a large offensive, involving thousands of soldiers, against a tribal land bordering North Waziristan. This would be the logical staging ground for a full-scale assault on North Waziristan.

In Iraq, US soldiers are in combat once again. Not against Al-Qaeda but Shiite militias funded by Iran. This is in conjunction with the success of the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels who have carved out an independent country in northern Yemen. The US Army and USMC will leave Iraq vulnerable to intimidation from Iran once they leave in a few months.

The overall Long War situation can be described as entering a transition period between the Pentagon in charge and the CIA in charge. The transition period though has a lag built into it, the Pentagon is retreating faster than the overly stretched CIA can advance, leaving a gap. This gap is causing the current surge in LW violence.