Thursday, December 15, 2011

Let's Talk Turkey

Long War: Assad's Syrian Army (bad guys) lost about 40 soldiers this week to the rebel FSA (good guys), this was highest number of losses yet in the Syrian Civil War for the bad guys. The rebels initiated four separate battles over the week, knocking Assad's army back hard each time with coordinated rocket propelled grenade attacks. There are now Syrian towns where Assad's soldiers cannot go. It seems the rebels are starting to hold and control territory. The Syrian rebels are proving that they might be able to beat Assad if NATO were to create a No-Fly Zone over the desert country. France floated a trial balloon for a NFZ when it spoke of opening a humanitarian corridor to besieged civilians through military force.
Of course Turkey is a NATO member and might be talking to France through back channels. Either way it is becoming increasingly clear that Turkey is not only allowing the rebels to build camps and training facilities on Turkish territory, the Turks are also supplying, training, and in fact leading the FSA.
The evidence for this is the sudden flow of cash to the rebels, flow of weapons, and the overall success they are enjoying - a level of success that speaks to outside help. Another piece of evidence is that Turkey is tightening the noose on Syria through trade sanctions that go beyond Turkish companies. Turkey was able to crush a trade deal between India and Syria two days ago.
For the sake of argument let's suppose that in a year or two Assad's government is overthrown just as Gaddafi was overthrown. This eventuality would almost guarantee that a larger war with Iran would be inevitable. And that war would be spearheaded by Turkey with the US playing a supporting role, as it did in Libya.
The most important aspect of Turkey's vision of Islamic government and society in the 21st century is that the former leader of the Ottoman Empire is a ferociously free market entity. Turkey's economy is growing as fast or faster than any other country on Earth.

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