Long War

Turkey has moved missile batteries, anti-aircraft guns, and other military assets to its border with Syria. The Turkish Prime Minister said yesterday that his country will "support the liberation of Syria" from Assad's dictatorship. At that point Turkey was a heartbeat away from declaring war on Syria. I remind you that Turkey is roughly ten times more powerful than Syria and would win easily in a few months. Turkey would then have to occupy Syria for several years just as America had to occupy Iraq after a short conventional war. Long War occupations involve messy guerilla wars.

Syria has massed 170 tanks around a non-descript rebel held town that is right next to the buffer zone inside Syria that Turkey is drawing red lines under. Turkey is saying that Syria cannot engage in military activity within a buffer zone near the Syrian/Turkish border, or else. Syria does not need 170 tanks to retake the non-descript rebel town. It looks as though Syria is responding to the Turkish military build-up along the border with its own build-up.

With these two militaries building forces along their mutual border, and the Turkish PM all but declaring war, it did indeed look like a war was in the offing. At the height of all this tension, Russia said (in obtuse diplomatic language) that Assad should go. This would have been a huge breakthrough since Russia and Iran are Syria's only real allies. But then the Turkish PM backed off in his bellicosity and tensions ebbed. Russia then changed its mind and threw support back to Assad.

In Yemen, Al-Qaeda has been blasted out of the towns, cities, and villages that it once held. A gigantic whack-a-mole is taking place, where bad guys are leaving Yemen for other locales. At first it looked like the bad guys were mostly going to Somalia to join Al-Shabab. But the Somali Army stepped on Al-Shabab hard and conquered (liberated) a bad guy village three days ago. Yemeni officials are now saying most of the Yemeni bad guys are going to Oman, an Arab country sharing a border with Yemen. Oman has had almost no jihadist activity up till now so its security forces are weak, a good place to set up shop.

In Mali, Al-Qaeda has blasted the Tuareg rebels (good guys) out of all major towns in northern Mali. AQIM and its affilates have been massively reinforced by jihadist fighters from all over the globe including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mali is very important for the bad guys and they are putting a lot of effort into this fire zone.

There are six major LW wars taking place right now: Afghanistan, Pakistan Tribal Lands, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, and Mali. The good guys are stretched thin and there doesn't seem to be much help for the Tuareg rebels in Mali.

Black Opps

Long War: The White House says it abhors the violence on both sides of the Syrian Civil War. Both sides should just stop fighting is official US policy.

The CIA is telling the press corp a different story than the White House. It admits to taking sides and to the fact that it is training the Free Syria Army. The CIA goes on to say the training is only in communication technology. Almost sorrowfully the CIA further admits that it is also building supply lines for the FSA and training the rebels in logistics. When the CIA admits to that kind of backing for a rebel army, then it is safe to assume that what it is actually doing is ten times greater than what it admits in public. This is why the FSA is knocking on the doors of the Presidential palace in Damascus.

Al Qaeda in Mali attacked a Toureg village and conquered it, turning a Toureg town into an Al-Qaeda town. A war has started between the Toureg rebels and Al-Qaeda, which is a good thing, before AQIM had no enemies shooting at them. It is not good that Al-Qaeda struck the first blow but this war is young and we will have to see what the Toureg do as far as a counter-offensive. If they could take their town back that would be positive.

It is obvious that the CIA is once again stretched thin. It should however be able to tap into resources with the African Union as far as Mali is concerned. As you will recall the AU is getting ready to train 3,000 soldiers for the express purpose of attacking Al-Qaeda in Mali. The AU claims that it cannot attack the bad guys in Mali without UN approval and funding. I think if the funding were to materialize the issue of UN approval would go away since there is a shooting war going on within rebel held Mali and Petraeus would find a way to use the AU soldiers under these circumstances, i.e. Al-Qaeda could win the war if he did nothing.

In the 1950s the CIA ran hundreds of secret private sector companies that were highly profitable. It would us those profits to run covert opps without Congressional approval. Also in the 50s it could raise huge sums by shaking down governments, gangsters, and business. I wonder how it is raising money for black opps today?

Super Warriors

Long War: I blew it yesterday with my instant analysis of the Syrian military leadership defection to Turkey. I said the defectors helped shoot down the Turkish F4 jet. In reality the defectors were probably selling or giving weapons to the rebels. The general who defected was in charge of munition storage. He would have access to military supplies and probably was funneling ammo to the good guys. He probably figured that the heat would be on for any turncoat Syrian officer who was taking money from the CIA and helping the rebels. He and 199 other people (biggest defection yet) all skipped town and landed up in Turkey. So a valuable asset in country has been lost.

The US general in charge of Africa Command says that AQIM, Al-Shabab, and Bokom Haram have melded into a single entity, the co-operation is that close. They are shuttling fighters from one battlefield to another, sharing hardware, making bombs together, and sharing money. The three Islamic militias mentioned above constitute 90% of the jihadist firepower in Africa. And this new jihadist super-organization evolving in Africa has the country of Mali right smack dab in the middle of their stomping grounds. AQIM owns about half of Mali. So AQIM is the new power in Africa.

On that note, AQIM's partner in Mali, the Toureg rebels, have turned on the jihadists at least to some degree because Toureg rebels have been firing on AQIM positions in Mali. A low level war seems to be emerging between the non-jihadist Toureg rebels and AQIM in Mali. The Touregs and AQIM were partners when they took over 2/3 of Mali but now they are enemies. I count this as the CIA fingerprint of the day.

In Syria, Turkey has changed its rules of engagement vis a vis Syria. Now any Syrian war vehicle approaching the Turkish border in an aggressive manner can be fired upon by the Turkish Army. The old rules of engagement said a Syrian war vehicle would have had to penetrate Turkey's border before being fired upon. So under current rules Turkey can shoot Syrian tanks and planes even if the vehicles are still in Syria. This means that if the CIA has another rogue cell of treasonous officers in the Syrian Army, then it will have a much easier time goading Turkey into declaring war on Syria because of this rule change.

Also in Syria, the FSA is tearing into the Syrian Army like an enraged grizzly. We are seeing evidence of super warriors on the battlefield. Syrian tanks are being devoured by itty-bitty little hand held rocket launchers because somebody can wield weapons like this in a super warrior fashion, i.e. popping up from a concealed position that had been established a week ago and stuffing anti-tank missiles up the exhaust pipes of an entire armored platoon, you know super warrior stuff. What is another word for super-warrior? SEALS.

Screaming Fingerprints

Long War: For nearly five decades there was close to a 100% corelation between the fortunes of America in the Cold War and the global stock market. If the US was winning the Cold War stocks went up. When the US was losing stocks went down. Not so with the Long War. It only has a tight corelation with the stock market when Long War conflict is obvioulsy affecting the price of oil. Long War combat that is far away from oil fields and doesn't directly involve Iran isn't (for now) having a very big impact on stock prices.

That will change. Stocks markets will not ignore major Long War developments forever, so we need to keep the eye on the ball and understand what's happening in the global war zone.

Turkey has called a meeting of the NATO war council. Turkey is saying Syria shot down a Turkish F4 fighter over international waters. The downed jet is under thousands of feet of water so Syria can't touch it and probably Turkey can't either. Probably only the US can locate and recover the downed jet. So the US could prove one way or the other if the jet was shot down in international waters.

If the F4 didn't penetrate Syrian air space, then Turkey can press NATO into taking military action against Syria. Turkey itself is more likely to take military action depending on how the US handles the recovery of the downed jet.

Yesterday several top Syrian military officers defected to Turkey. It is likely that these officers had something to do with ordering the F4 shot down and they are getting out of Dodge.

The defecting officers are strong evidence that the CIA had something (or everything) to do with Syria's insane desicion to try and goad Turkey into declaring war on Syria.

Whack-a-Mole and Donut Crumbs

Long War: The African Union has not eliminated Al-Shabab in Somalia. The bad guys still control a few villages even though the position they once held of dominating the entire country has been shattered. Eliminating those few remaining Al-Shabab villages seemed as though it would be a mere mopping up operation.

The mopping up has gotten tougher as fighters from Yemen are being chased out of country by a ferocious good guy offensive and landing in Somalia, well-armed, pissed off and ready to fight. Al-Shabab is offering a home to the rats fleeing the last battles of the Yemen War. Clearly resources will have to be channeled to the AU offensive in Somalia because the whack-a-mole effect is bolstering the bad guys there.

But in Yemen its doesn't look so good for the bad guys. The Yemeni Army is now opening up access to oil producing regions that Al-Qaeda had blocked off. Soon oil revenue will start flowing back into the Yemeni government and the Yemeni Army. This will allow the Yemeni offensive to continue. The next target will be the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in northern Yemen. But Al-Qaeda is not dead yet in Yemen, even though it has lost all the towns and cities it once controlled. From hilltop hideaways the bad guys have mounted a desperate campaign to kill top Yemeni generals. In fact last week they assassinated the number one general. There is a lot of fighting ahead for this war torn nation.

But Al-Qaeda is crumbling in Yemen and this is triggering a big whack-a-mole effect, where bad guys flee one battlefield to pop up in another. Bad guys will eventually be flowing into Mali from Somalia and Yemen as the good guys keep winning their respective wars. This means the Mali War (which is still a couple years away from starting) will be bigger than most people think. Naturally Petareus will not be caught by surprise.

The Syrian Air Force shot down a Turkish jet. It is likely that the Turkish jet was not even in Syrian air space. Turkey is ten times stronger than Syria. Turkey is already the host country for the rebel Free Syria Army, giving the FSA bases and a safe haven to fight from. In other words, Turkey is already halfway declaring war on Syria as it is. If the upper levels of Syria's leadership deliberately provoked Turkey by shooting down that fighter jet, then the Syrian leadership is 100% insane. But this is not the case, they are not insane. This means a Syrian Air Force officer or several officers are insane. But this probably isn't true either. So what are we left with to explain the downed jet?

How about a couple of Syrian Air Force officers are undergoing plastic surgery and are getting ready to open donut shops in San Diego? How about this jet getting shot down is another example of CIA fingerprints, very sticky and crusted with donut crumbs?

War In Mali

Long War: As you will recall I blogged a few days ago about the African Union being willing to wage war against Al-Qaeda (AQIM) in Mali. At the time I said the AU wanted $200 million to crush the bad guys in Mali and we would likely see CIA fingerprints in funding efforts for this proposed war.

Over the weekend the AU announced that the task force destined to launch an invasion into the AQIM stronghold in Mali has a name. It is called the Mali Intervention Force (MIF). Three AU member countries countries are raising forces for the MIF: Nigeria, Niger, and Senegal. Apparently about 3,000 troops have been hived off from these national armies and will soon be given to the nascent MIF, at that point mission planning will get underway. All this makes me think that the CIA has scrounged up enough money to get the project started, maybe $10-20 million if I had to guess.

The AU says that the MIF will not attack AQIM in Mali without UN Security Council approval. Russia and China probably won't allow MIF to go to war in Mali until the Syrian War has come to more of a tipping point and on its way to being resolved one way or the other. It will take a while to get Syria resolved so UN approval will be slow in coming for the proposed Mali War.

But we've seen Petraeus jump over hurdles like this before. If he has an army on the border of Mali and a clear funding source, then he will use that army with UN permission or without.

Boko Haram is an Al-Qaeda franchisee in Nigeria. It is separate from AQIM but obviously a close ally. Boko Haram launched big terror strikes in Nigeria when the existence of MIF was announced. If these terror strikes continue Nigeria is going to want to get MIF fighting in Mali sooner rather than later plus do something more about Boko Haram.

We can see that the Mali War will spread right away into Nigeria and probably other countries as well. I get the feeling that this war will be bigger than most geopolitical analysts are currently projecting.

Fingerprints

Long War: The CIA is not perfect. It told Hillary Clinton that Russia was sending a shipload of attack helicopters to Syria. In reality the shipload of attack helicopters are old choppers that Syria has owned for a long time and Russia rebuilt to be just like new. This sounds like a trivial distinction but it is actually a big blunder. Besides rebuilt helicopters and a bunch of other weapons, Russia is sending troops to the war torn nation (scary). The CIA blunder on the choppers makes it harder for the US State Department to scream bloody murder over the fact that Russia is sending troops in country. The number of Russian troops being sent is very small and there is almost no chance they will see combat supporting Assad, nevertheless this is a pretty ballsy move on the part of the Russians. They are crossing swords with the CIA, so they better watch their ass or it will get handed back to them on a platter.

Yes, we can point to a blunder, but overall the CIA is kicking nine yards of ass. Overnight the Yemeni Army flattened another Al-Qaeda fortress city. The internet is filled with images of liberated villagers dancing in the streets after being freed from the tyranny of the human monsters called Al-Qaeda. It looks like the aftermath of the US Army liberating Paris from the Nazis, powerful good propaganda.

The Yemeni Army is massing around the town of Azzan. This will be the last big battle of the conventional phase of this war. It might be the biggest battle yet. Over the last few weeks the Yemeni Army has killed about 50 Al-Qaeda soldiers and fighters a day. It is a relentless Al-Qaeda killing machine, spitting out dead bad guys like an assembly line.

In the rest of the Long War that is controlled by the CIA we continue to see fingerprints, coming at us in a fast and furious pace. There seems to be a sort of CIA blitz going on. It does indeed look like somebody took the muzzle off the attack dog. In fact it seems as though somebody took the muzzle off the attack dog and then whispered in its ear: "I'm sorry for muzzling you. Please make up for lost time by attacking every global jihadist problem with everything you've got." It seems like somebody wants to get reelected.

Here is the fingerprint of the day: Right before the big vote this weekend, the Egyptian military dissolved the Egyptian Parliament, which is filled with Islamic radicals and semi-radicals. The military then said it will be the legislative body running the country until the results of the election come in. The military is implying that if it doesn't like the results of the election, it might toss out the results. It would do this if the elections resulted in too many Salafist or hard line radical Islamic politicians being voted in.

The Muslim Brotherhood just got kicked in the teeth. The Brotherhood is hardly complaining. It is telling voters to go out and vote and to not worry that the military has placed itself back into a dominate political role. If this structure stays intact it means that Egypt's democracy will be like the one Turkey had for so many decades, i.e. a democracy where the military can void any election if jihadist politicians win too big a piece of the pie, a democracy where Al-Qaeda cannot take over by way of the ballot box.

Always remember, Hitler came to power in Germany through a series of elections, the early elections were fair and square, even the later ones held the possibility of Hitler losing despite his efforts to rig them.

No Muslim country has become a functioning democracy without the Turkish structure, that is without the military reserving the right to boot radical Islamic politicians out of office. It is like saying 1930s Germany will allow free elections except Nazis cannot win. Sounds like a pretty @#$%& good idea.

Egypt is the cultural center of the Arab world. As Egypt goes so goes the entire Arab world. This election is very important. We need CIA fingerprints. We want CIA fingerprints. We pray for CIA fingerprints.

A Profitable Donut Shop For You. How Nice

Long War: The Yemeni Army has become an Al-Qaeda killing machine. Over the past few days it has blasted AQAP's army out of the key cities of Zinjibar and Jaar. As I write Navy SEALs are directing the good guys in a huge battle against the Al-Qaeda fortress city of Shaqra. The Yemeni Defense minister says this city will fall within hours. AQAP is reverting to apocalyptic language in the aftermath of its military defeats, warning the good guys of savage retribution if they don't stop beating the crap out of them. Stop! Stop beating the shit out of me or the wrath of Allah will fall upon you and all of Yemen will go up in flames!

For the first time the western media is saying that the vast destruction being meted out by the Yemeni Air Force is really coming from CIA drones. OMG! I only wrote that in this blog three weeks ago. Yo, western media, get a clue.

Yesterday the Free Syria Army captured a key military base that is within rocket range of Assad's Presidential palace. The good guys held this base for a couple hours and used that time productively by firing rockets into Assad's palace; no doubt scaring the living daylights out of the anti-American dictator. With his very life in danger, Assad has no choice but to pull out all the stops and wage a war of genocide against the Sunni majority that comprises the revolution. In that vein, the dictator has ordered shipments of helicopter gunships from Russia. These gunships are in transit and will soon be massacring civilians.

The rebel capture of the Syrian military base yesterday was possible because Syrian soldiers inside the base were bribed, turned traitor, and then allowed the rebels to have control of the base for a short time. It is possible the Syrian soldiers who were bribed will soon undergo plastic surgery and eventually will own a profitable donut shop in Palm Beach Florida. This is a very obvious example of CIA fingerprints. Actually more than just fingerprints but a blazing Langley searchlight.

Have you noticed that suicide attacks on the part of good guy Free Syria Army have stopped? This indicates that Al-Qaeda's effort to take over the rebel movement has faltered. Somehow the good guys seem to have purged bad guys from the FSA. Again, CIA fingerprints.

Assad seems to know that he is up against a very powerful adversary. Alawite (bad guy) villages are attacking Sunni villages in such a way that a new country (a pro-Iranian Alawite country) is slowly emerging along the Syrian coast. The creation of a so-called rump state along the coast means that Assad is willing to surrender most of his country in the hope if retaining a hardcore cadre of devoted followers in order to wage a very long term campaign. Assad would only do this if he were very afraid and very desperate. Assad is afraid because he is facing a mind that is cunning and totally without mercy, a mind willing to break all the rules of warfare, a mind willing to exert all the power of the CIA in a single laser-like focus, the mind of CIA Director Petraeus, the baddest mamba jamba on the planet. Do not piss him off or you will lose your tin pot dictatorship, not to mention your life.

Obama is Petraeus Puppet

Long War: The African Union just asked the UN Security Council for permission to go to war against the recently created Al-Qaeda nation-state in northern Mali. Bear in mind the African Union Army defeated the conventional forces of Al-Shbab in Somalia, and is in the process of turning that Al-Qaeda franchisee from owner of a jihadist nation-state to a band of homeless terrorists. So the AU Army can defeat Al-Qaeda in Mali if it is given permission and funding.

The AU Army doesn't fight for free. It gets paid to kill bad guys. It wants $200 million to take out the bad guys in Mali. There is no ready source for these funds although France is making timid noise about stepping up to the plate. It is up to the CIA to find the $200 million. If it has to blackmail a French politician, for example, then it must do so. By carefully combing media sources, hints of CIA funding activity directed at the AU Army can be surmised in the days ahead.

Obvious CIA fingerprints are blazing like searchlights in the sudden upsurge in the Free Syria Army's lethal capacity. The good guys, the Syrian rebels that make up the FSA have gone from 90 lbs. weaklings to 300 lbs. karate black belts in a few short weeks, ever since the Iranian anti-nuclear peace talks broke down.

In one day alone last week the FSA killed 80 bad guys (Asssad Syrian soldiers). Last week the FSA destroyed at least 20 bad guy battle tanks. Assad has refused to use helicopter gunships until now because using Syrian air assets in this war invites a Libya style NATO no-fly zone and/or a CIA drone campaign, either one of which could mean Assad loses the war just as Gaddafi lost. So he really doesn't want to mow civilians and rebels down with helicopters. But the FSA has grown so powerful Assad has no choice but to use choppers. Either that or his ground army will have to start retreating under the potential onslaught.

In addition to all of the above we are seeing overall global CIA drone activity increasing dramatically in recent days and we have Administration officials telling Pakistan to pound sand over drone restrictions in the Pak tribal lands. Somebody has taken the muzzle off the attack dog. Somebody has just told CIA Director Petraeus to do whatever he wants.

A couple weeks ago Team Obama held a press conference where the President claimed he personally okayed every target for every drone fired missile everywhere on the planet, like he was running the CIA drone program on an operational basis.

We will hear more of the same from Obama as the election campaign gets under way. There will be top Al-Qaeda leaders killed with drones. Maybe Assad will get killed by a drone. And Obama will make it sound like he personally killed Assad or the Al-Qaeda leader. And the CIA will go along with that. Whether Obama or Romney wins the election will make no difference, Petraeus will manipulate and twist whoever sits in the White House to satisfy his (and the CIA's) objectives.

The creator of the CIA was named Wild Bill Sullivan. When the CIA was reassembled in 1948, Truman made sure that it was exactly like the organization that Wild Bill built, with only one difference, there would be no Wild Bill leading the CIA. Wild Bill was retired because he would instantly have turned Truman into a puppet by digging up dirt on Administration officials.

J. Edgar Hoover successfully employed this method when he ran the FBI, but J. Edgar was a piker compared to Wild Bill. Petraeus may prove over time to be better than either J. Edgar or Wild Bill. That is, if we are lucky.

Broad Overview of Long War

The Long War can be divided into two parts: A) the battle zones controlled by the CIA and B) the battle zones controlled by the Pentagon. So we should look at them separately in our broad overview.

A) CIA's War: Somalia, Yemen, Libya, and Tribal Pakistan are battle zones that are seeing good guys winning. Mali is a battle zone where the bad guys are winning. Nigeria is a stalemate between good and bad.

It is impossible to know what the CIA is doing inside Iran until the shit hits the fan and Iran is somehow clobbered, such as the Stuxnet computer virus which disabled parts of Iranian nuclear weapons program. Since then CIA viruses have attacked oil pumping equipment. Probably there are new viruses attacking Iranian infrastructure that we don't know about.

We are seeing Israel jerk around like its being pulled by a string as far as settler policy in Palestinian territory. First Israel is cutting back settlement. Then it says it is expanding settlement. This has the feel of the CIA somehow attacking and pressuring Israel but there is no visible sign of what these attacks might be.

B) Pentagon's War: The summer fighting season in Afghanistan is turning out to be more ferocious than expected. Yesterday 40 civilians were killed in Taliban attacks and NATO counter strikes. This is the nastiest start to the summer fighting season for several years. However, last year the Taliban opened with a showy start featuring conventional pitched battles, and it then fizzled out to an only average fighting season. So we might be seeing a bit of a Roman candle effect with the big showy start this year.

The Taliban needs to take ground away from NATO for there to be a major reversal to the situation in Afghanistan. Which hasn't happened yet. The big picture is what happens when NATO leaves in less than two years.

Obviously Afghanistan will then move from B to A, from Pentagon responsibility to CIA responsibility. On that score the CIA last week announced that it is pulling almost all of its assets out of Iraq. It didn't say that these assets are going straight into Afghanistan but you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see it was hinting this would be the case.

Al-Qaeda Cannot Speak

Long War: Over the last few days the CIA has completed a drone blitz in the northern tribal regions of Pakistan. Langley had gone a long time with very little drone activity, then suddenly the skies over North and South Waziristan are filled with flying robotic wolf packs and the air screams of Hellfire missiles. And then the blitz is gone as quickly as it materialized. Dozens of Al-Qaeda chieftains were killed but the media is telling us that of special importance is the death of Al-Qaeda's second highest ranking leader, Al-Libi. More to the point, Al-Libi was the most media savvy leader within Al-Qaeda. Ever since Petraeus took over the CIA there has been an intense focus on using drones to kill media savvy bad guy leaders. Petraeus is reaching into Al-Qaeda and removing its voice box, its ability to communicate with the outside world. The CIA is rendering Al-Qaeda mute.

The CIA is somehow doing the same thing to the western media. In Yemen we don't know how well the Yemeni Army is doing except for this clue: the Houthi rebels in the far north of the country are trying to negotiate a peace deal with the Yemeni government. The Houthis are allies of Iran and have always batted the Yemeni government around like a cat playing with a mouse. But now they are scared of the mouse and want to sue for peace. This indicates that the Yemeni Army is chock-a-block full of Navy SEALs and Green Berets and has become a jihadist killing machine that the Houthis want to have no part of.

The CIA successes we are seeing in recent days involve manipulating the media and internet to allow the good guys to win the war of headlines in both the West and in the Islamic world. I am struck by the similarities between the mind of CIA Director Petraeus and the late North Vietnamese Dictator Ho Chi Minh. I've always considered Ho Chi Minh to be the greatest military mind in all of history. After North Vietnam had finished executing the Tet Offensive the entire Viet Cong Army was destroyed and the conventional North Vietnamese Army could have been knocked over with a feather. All America had to do was fight hard for just a few more months and the war would have been won. According to traditional military doctrine the Tet Offensive was a huge disaster.

But it was launched while Walter Cronkite was in country. In fact it was launched because Walter Cronkite was in country. Ho Chi Minh's goal was to get Walter Cronkite to tell the American people that Nixon was a liar and there was no light at the end of the tunnel. Cronkite did just that and the entire USA believed him. Ho Chi Minh essentially wrote Cronkite's news script. Ho Chi Minh reached into the mind of the American voter and got him/her to surrender. Ho Chi Minh understood the western media and western voters much better than anybody else on the planet at that time. He was a kind of super-genius.

CIA Director Petraeus is also a genius of that caliber.

Long War Africa

Fundamentals: The market is waiting for the Greek elections for its next major move. We will know the results in a few weeks.

Long War: Three months ago the CIA and Special Forces launched a campaign against the Lord's Resistance Army in central Africa. LRA is the most powerful and dangerous of the radical Christian militias in Africa. This CIA semi-covert operation has already killed the number two leader of LRA. If radical Christianity is eliminated in central Africa, then Christian villages under siege by radical Islam will have to turn to the good guys for protection, not call in radicals to battle radicals.

You will recall in yesterday's blog I suggested that the CIA was grooming Italian Intelligence to take center stage in Libya with its very own drone fleet. Ethiopia is a pro-American powerhouse in Africa and a former Italian colony. Ethiopia and Italy should be able to work together in coming African Long War conflicts.

The Sudan vs South Sudan conflict also seems to be enjoying serious Langley influence to keep the situation stable.

A lot of energy is being poured into Africa.

The battlefield for Africa is being carefully shaped. There is long term planning going on that befits a hundred-year long war. In the medium term it seems that the master planners anticipate AQAP's fall in Yemen and a whack-a-mole effect that sees streams of bad guys pouring into Africa. The whack-a-mole effect is not desirable but it is inevitable. So it is smart to plan ahead for it.

I Am An Italian Drone. I Am Now 100% CIA Compatible

Long War: The White House announced a strange new policy today. Italy's fleet of Reaper drones is to be weaponized with Hellfire missiles and upgraded in a host of other ways to make Italian drones identical in all respects to fully functioning CIA Reaper drones.

The official reasons given for this action are pretty thin. We are told that Italy's CIA compatible drones will be used to protect Italian troops in Afghanistan even though these troops never see combat. And then we are told that selling Italy Hellfire missiles for their drones will help America's balance of payments deficit by about .000001%.

Why does Italy even have non-weaponized Reaper drones in the first place? Again the official answers are unsatisfying. The current fleet of Italian Reapers are supposedly good for reconnaissance even though there are a bunch of other drones designed specifically for recon that are much better. Reaper drones are the most deadly drone platform in the world and having non-weaponized Reapers is like having an M1A1 main battle tank without a cannon and then saying this bizarre tank will sneak behind enemy lines and snoop about so it doesn't need a cannon. Pure nonsense.

And we also learned today that oil majors are getting contracts to begin exploring once again in Libya. Suddenly big oil companies are for one reason or another feeling very safe and secure in the former Italian colony of Libya. Italy has always maintained a very tight relationship with its former colony. At one point Italian oil companies did most of the exploration and development of the Libyan oil industry. Italy would certainly like to return to its old role of supervising and helping Libya advance economically.

Do you see a connection between these two news items? Do you see CIA fingerprints?

AQAP Fights Like Cornered Rats

Fundamentals: Opinion polls show that the hard left is gaining ground in the coming Greek election. This is very bad. So let's not ruin our weekend and even worry about the Euro-nightmare. Instead, let's focus on the Long War.

Long War: Abyan Province in southern Yemen is the Kingdom of Al-Qaeda, the true headquarters of the global jihadist network, and the fountain from which all evil flows. The largest city in Abyan is Zinjibar, Al-Qaeda's capital. The second must important city is Ja'ar. The number two city most fall before a thrust can be made into the heart of the beast, Zinjibar.

The Yemeni Army is pushing into Ja'ar. Over the last two days 60 Al-Qaeda soldiers have been killed and 40 good guys have been killed. Among the dead bad guys are numerous Gulf Arabs (non-Yemenis). These non-Yemenis are fighters pulled from every corner of Al-Qaeda's global empire, in a savage attempt to hold the big cities of Abyan province. So everybody can stop pretending that AQAP is an Al-Qaeda offshoot. AQAP is Al-Qaeda.

You will notice that the good guy kill ratios are declining. This is because the fighting is getting closer to the heart of the beast and the evil ones are fighting like cornered rats.

You will also notice that lately I am describing Al-Qaeda as pure evil, abandoning my usual detachment. To be honest I am doing so in an effort to be more accurate. Here's an example of why I am shifting my language: Recently in Afghanistan the Taliban has stepped up its efforts at poisoning and killing little school girls whose parents have the temerity to try to get an education for their daughters. Wells are poisoned, poison gas bombs are thrown into girls' class rooms, and so forth. So let's tear away the false veil of objectivity and speak the plain truth. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban are the personification of raw evil. Any analysis that does not speak to this point is flawed.

And while we are at it, let's admit that the CIA is the primary fountain of morality and justice on this troubled planet.

Full Court Press Against Al-Qaeda

Charts: The market is in a rally attempt. I was wrong yesterday when I said the rally attempt had failed. Yesterday's blog was written at midday when the NASDAQ was down 1.7%. After I published yesterday's blog there was an upside reversal, which reaffirmed the rally attempt. So we are not in a correction or a rally. We need a follow through day for a technical rally to begin.

Long War: The Western media is reporting that the anti-nuclear peace talks between Iran and 5 plus 1 are faltering. This isn't true. The two sides are circling each other like scorpions in a bottle, but neither side has lashed out with its stinger. A new round of talks has been scheduled in a month in Moscow. To gauge if any progress has been made we need to listen to what Iran has to say, not the Western media. By this criteria, progress is being made.

America is supporting the Yemeni Army in its massive offensive against AQAP on several different fronts. The State Deparment is admitting to a huge internet hacking scheme which has turned Al-Qaeda websites into pro-American propoganda tools.

Elements of the deposed Yemeni dictator, Saleh, have been supporting Al-Qaeda. The US Treasury is installing economic sanctions against individuals loyal to Saleh. Treasury must be working with the CIA to do this, and the same can be said for the State Department. Clearly we are seeing another example of Director Petraeus reaching out to other parts of the US government and bending them to the will of the CIA.

What is at stake in this battle? The black flag of Al-Qaeda flies over the southern Yemeni port city of Aden. This port is located along a sea lane that carries a large percentage of the West's oil. Al-Qaeda wants to stop this oil from flowing and thereby crippling the world economy. So a lot is at stake.

Meanwhile, on the battlefield in southern Yemen, 35 Al-Qaeda soldiers were killed today by the Yemeni Army and a key town was captured.

If AQAP is crushed by the Yemeni Army in southern Yemen, then the good guys will attack the Houthi rebels in the north. The Houthis are puppets of Iran. If the Houthis in turn are crushed, then Iran will be more likely to cave-in at the peace talks with 5 plus 1. This will bring down the price of oil and perhaps prevent a global double-dip recession. You can see that the battle in Yemen is the most important in the world and why all parts of the American government are engaged in a full court press.

Do You Have a Puke Bucket?

Charts: The NYSE Composite is below its 200-day moving average, edging into bear market territory. Many emerging markets are now deep into bear market territory. At midday on May 23 the S&P 500 is barely holding above 1292, a key technical level that needs to hold or we are all in for a world of hurt. The two day rally attempt has failed and the market is back into a correction.

Dave's Investment Corner: Growth stocks are getting pulverized. The hour for value stocks may be arriving. Consider this ETF... DEF, this is an index of the 100 strongest companies in the US stock market on the basis of cash flow and dividend increases plus low valuations. And these are not cyclical companies, but defensive hence the ticker symbol. You should buy value on dips, but not just any dip, rather a dip so harsh you feel sick, like you're going to puke. If you actually do puke that is a good sign. You should have a puke bucket next to your desk, I just got one and I'm ready for action.

Long War: The Yemeni Army suffered a terrible blow the other day with the death of 100 soldiers by a suicide bomber. They have picked themselves up and resumed attacking Al-Qaeda, knocking the evil ones partially out of their capitol city. The Yemeni Army is now pissed off. Kill ratios have zoomed up to about 20-1. They are fighting like Americans now.

Saudi Arabia is giving about $3 billion to the Yemeni government. A wedge is being driven into the heart of the beast.

So far Iran is rolling over in the anti-nuclear peace talks with 5 plus 1. You can be sure the CIA led war against AQAP has got their attention.

Israel Temper Tantrum

Charts: The S&P 500 hit 1292, the October peak, found support and bounced up sharply off that level on Monday in weak volume. It is a good thing that the index was able to respond to a technical support level, this at least broke the waterfall pattern. The weak volume is bad. Today the index finished almost flat after giving up a medium size gain in the middle of the day. This is a negative reversal, not good. The market is in a rally attempt, not a technical rally. This rally attempt is a little iffy because of the weak volume and the negative reversal.

Fundamentals: Opinion polls show Greek voters are evenly divided between pro-austerity parties and anti-austerity parties. This is an improvement because anti-austerity (hard left) parties had been surging before the upcoming election (only weeks away). The hard left is saying Greece cannot be forced out of the Euro-zone because there is no treaty mechanism to do that. This is how Greece will leave the Euro-zone if the hard left wins the next election: There will be a run on Greek banks (already happening to a small degree). Then Greek banks will run out of euros. The ECB will stop pumping euros into these banks because the government is breaking the deal allowing for ECB funding. Without euros the Greek government will have to print its own currency. At that point it has left the Euro-zone. In the long run (several months to several years) this will be a good thing. In the short to medium term it will hammer stocks very badly. So there is a 50/50 chance this will happen based on opinion polls.

Long War: A group of bad guys let off a suicide bomb in the middle of a (good guy) Yemeni military parade, killing 100 good guy soldiers. Al-Qaeda did not claim responsibility right away. So AQAP most likely did not set off this bomb. Probably anti-regime forces loyal to the old dictator Saleh are the bad guys. It is tough that the good guys in Yemen are facing a new enemy as they battle Al-Qaeda.

Israel is aggressively expanding settlements in the occupied territories. Furthermore these new settlements are strategically located to really screw the Palestinians. Israel is throwing a temper tantrum with this action. Why is it acting like a big spoiled baby? Because it is being prevented from attacking Iran by the US. So this is good.

As a consequence the Iran anti-nuclear peace talks with the US-led group of big powers called 5 plus 1 are off to a good start. This is pressuring the price of oil which is good of course.

Angela Merkel Needs to Stand Tall

Charts: The S&P 500 is experiencing a waterfall chart pattern, the most damaging of all patterns. A waterfall shows no respect for support levels, punching down through them without even pausing. It doesn't care that the market is oversold and should at least exhibit a dead cat bounce. A waterfall is like the Terminator killing robot in Scharzenegger movies. You can't reason with it. You can't negotiate with it. There is no pity. There is no love.

Fundamentals: The hard left in Greece is telling voters that Germany, the EU and the ECB are bluffing. The left claims Germany will keep bail out funds flowing even if Greece abandons its austerity program even though Germany is saying the opposite. This week the ECB cut off funding to Greek banks. Earlier the EFSF (one of two EU bail out funds) pulled back over a billion dollars worth of funding. So Germany and the EU are already pulling the plug on Greece, not just talking about it. This might change the outcome of the coming Greek election. If Greek voters think German chancellor Merkel is not bluffing, they might get scared straight.

Long War: The Obama administration has a theory, the veil of secrecy should be pulled off the CIA's drone program. It is broadcasting in advance plans to expand the drone campaign to Nigeria, Somalia, and other parts of Africa. The CIA is openly opposed to this White House proposal. Obama always starts screwing up foreign policy when he is suffering in the polls and his re-election prospects get shaky. He is very smart but lacks courage. This is his biggest weakness.

The war in Yemen is going very well. As the Yemeni Army advances, rolling back Al-Qaeda, citizens in the former occupied villages and lands are rising up and joining the fight against the evil ones. See? See what happens if you just leave the CIA the %#@& alone?

Underwear Triumphs Over All

Fundamentals: The Euro-crisis is so bad that it is out weighing good news from the Long War.

Long War: The beating heart of the dark beast is southern Yemen, where there are more Al-Qaeda jihadists than all of Pakistan and Afghanistan combined, where the evil ones have carved out a fetid kingdom and built a fully functioning modern army.

A huge offensive was launched against AQAP five days ago. The Yemeni Army has thrown 20,000 troops into a wrecking machine that includes at least another 10,000 allied tribal militiamen, trained by the CIA. The Green Berets are leading this juggernaut. CIA and Special Forces drones are filling the sky with hellfire missiles, too numerous to count, in obvious close air support, in fact directed by Green Beret commanders fighting and leading on the front lines. US Navy warships are also supporting the offensive with withering fire from positions close off shore.

Local Yemeni media reports that over 100 bad guys have been killed so far. The good guys are achieving 4-1 kill ratios. In previous battles AQAP had the favorable kill ratios, thank God this has reversed since this one statistic usually determines the winner of a battle. AQAP is getting knocked back from long held territory. A knife is being thrust into the dark beast's beating heart, splling acid blood on the desert sand.

And the western press is almost completely ignoring this battle. There are US boots on the ground, fighting without Congressional permission. The US Navy is in a war. The press is giving the most important battle in the world a big yawn. It's hard for me to believe but the big yawn seems to be a result of the Yemeni underwear bomb story. Today there is a press account circulating about the size and shape of the explosive underwear that the CIA acquired from its double agent. This deadly underwear is so tailored that it would pass any normal pat down, so the story goes. I guess there is only so much copy allowed in a given media publication concerning Yemen and fitted explosive underwear takes precedence over the most important battle of our time.

The Iranian leadership is not yawning. As the anti-nuclear peace talks ramp up, Iran is making all sorts of conciliatory noise. You can be sure that the combination of America up to its neck in a regional war and no media publications covering this fact is terrifying to bad guys around the world. Muzzling the media is a specialty of CIA Director Petraeus. I am in awe of his genius. How could he know that explosive underwear trumps US Navy frigates shelling bad guys?

Green Beret in Yemen

Fundamentals: Greece says that it cannot form a unity government, therefore there will be new elections in June. The hard left is certain to win. This means Greece is almost certain to default on its debt. The entire Euro-zone is now at risk.

Long War: Press reports tell us that at least 70 US Army Special Forces troops are in Yemen, directing the Yemeni Army in a gigantic battle against Al-Qaeda. This is probably understated and there are likely many more Special Forces in country. I say this because we have news of US Navy warships moving into position off the Yemeni coast.

As I've pointed out, Al-Qaeda has an army in Yemen with main battle tanks and all the fixings. This army is being chewed up by the combined US/Yemeni Army. Combined Special Forces and CIA drone strikes are now too numerous to count and the pretense of not providing close air support seems to have been shredded. No Republican would dare criticize Obama for getting involved so heavily and overtly in this war right after AQAP was caught red-handed trying to blow up an American airliner.

I invite you to reconsider and rethink the media accounts of the CIA's foiling of this latest underwear bomb attempt. It is a strange coincidence that this whole incident occurred right before the media got wind that the US has boots on the ground in Yemen. Certainly there really was an underwear bomb attempt on the part of AQAP. But the whole thing is just way to useful to the CIA to be sheer chance.

The Syrian Civil War has spread into Lebanon. This is bad. The only thing that the CIA can do in this war is to somehow help the Free Syrian Army (FSA) purge its ranks of Al-Qaeda fighters and operatives. One way we will know if this is happening would be if suicide bomb attacks against Assad's forces diminish. When and if that happens, then the FSA has to fight and defeat Assad's army. This will take years. I have been saying that the CIA is doing nothing along these lines in Syria. Maybe I'm wrong. If I am wrong, then Iran would know that its ally (Syria) is in Langley's cross hairs. So another clue that the CIA actually is making progress purging Al-Qaeda fighters from the FSA would be if Iran bellies up to the bar in the peace talks with 5 plus 1 that are scheduled to restart in the near future. And indeed Iran made placating statements about the peace talks earlier in the week. This isn't enough to say there is CIA progress in Syria, but it is a hopeful sign. This Long War battlefield is ambiguous.

Grexit = Greek Exit from Euro-zone

Charts: Today the S&P 500 moved in and out of the key support level of 1340 about seven times. At the end of the day it punched through support and finished under this key level. What we saw then was hammering action as the bears repeatedly tested support and finally shattered it. This is not good.

Fundamentals: Greece is unable to form a government after its recent election so there will be another one in June. Polling data shows hard left parties are picking up support. The hard left in Greece is telling voters that Germany is bluffing when it says bail out money will be withdrawn if austerity measures and free market reforms are reversed. In this fantasy land Greece can go back to its old ways of living high on Germany's dime. Spain, Italy, Portugal, and the rest must step up to the plate and recommit to austerity and free market reform. If this happens convincingly, then Greece can get booted out of the Euro-zone without tearing the global economy apart. If it doesn't shake down this way, then all hell will break loose because the entire Euro-zone will be at risk.

Long War: Since the days right after 9/11 until only a few months ago America's strategy in the Long War was to try to win in a year or two, pack up its bags and go home. This is why in the early 2000s recruits for the Iraqi Army were not vetted for Al-Qaeda membership and given only a couple weeks worth of training. Back then America was just trying to shove warm bodies as rapidly as possible onto the battlefield in a blind, panicky attempt to cobble together something that sort of looked like victory and then declare peace. This policy was foolish beyond belief. One of the results is that today the Syria rebel movement is being taken over by Al-Qaeda in Iraq. There seems to be no push right now to stop AQII from having its way with the Syrian rebels because Yemen is the priority. Under the circumstances this is the right thing to do.

The CIA is not trying to win the Long War right now. At last we have the right policy. The groundwork is being laid for eventual victory many decades in the future. The global battlefield is being shaped in the Islamic world and in the halls of power in Washington DC. America is neither winning nor losing the Long War right now.

You Only Have One Friend

Charts: Last week the S&P 500 hit 1340, found support and traded out of the danger zone. The NASDAQ is finding support at 2900. If either of these support levels are breached it will probably get very ugly. The market is in a correction and you should be as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs. I am.

Fundamentals: We are staring in the face of Greece defaulting. That in itself cannot hurt the world economy. Greek bonds are owned by the ECB, Greek banks, and well protected hedge funds; everybody else has got out of Dodge a long time ago. The danger is not Greece per se but contagion to Spain and then the rest of Europe. Yield on the Spanish ten year note is over 6%, above the danger zone. This is why the long tailed cat analogy is apt. We must look to our only friend for succor.

Long War: The Yemeni Army is kicking the crap out of AQAP's army, destroying about a dozen AQAP main battle tanks on Sunday and killing 30 AQAP soldiers. Media reports tell us that CIA drones are operating in wolf packs for the first time in Yemen and are killing bad guys everywhere in southern Yemen except in and around the pitched battle between the Yemeni Army and AQAP. We are also told the Yemeni Air Force is enjoying unusual good luck in clobbering the bad guys. The CIA does not have permission to provide close air support to the Yemeni Army. We know that Petraeus asked for permission to do this, so he thought it was essential to provide drone close air support a few weeks ago. If we are to believe the media reports, then Petraeus was wrong. There is no need for drone close air support because the Yemeni Air Force is suddenly so awesome it doesn't need any help. Yeah right. CIA drones are probably protecting the Yemeni Army like a mother hen with a batch of chicks.

As an aside to the above story: The mere fact that Al-Qaeda has main battle tanks is chilling. It's not supposed to work that way. And you can see why Yemen is now the heart of the beast. The Syrian Civil War is important but Yemen is even more important.

Congress is in a twitter about a leak within the CIA revealing all the details of the CIA double agent who foiled the recent AQAP underwear bomb attempt on an American airliner. For instance, we know that the double agent was a Saudi who held British citizenship. We know his favorite color was red and he liked to take long walks on the beach (okay I made the last two items up, you get the point). Congress is outraged that somebody in the CIA leaked all this to the general public. Congress is going to spend a lot of energy with hearings and investigations to tighten up the loosey-goosey culture in Langley. And there might be hearings about why Congress wasn't informed about the operation in the first place. Petraeus is slowly twisting Congress into a knot. When he is done with them they won't know how to spell CIA.

Specific Stocks: Luxury watchmaker Fossil reported weakness in Asia and Europe. Coach is exposed to these same markets. Coach reported before Fossil and said it is seeing weakness in Europe but strength in Asia. The market is acting like Coach is just as weak in Asia as Fossil. I don't think this is true but I sold Coach after the Fossil report because I don't want to fight the tape.

For several days after the Fossil report Lulu Lemon was getting hammered, as if it faced the same problems as Fossil. But Lulu Lemon has almost no exposure to Europe or Asia. More recently LULU has stabilized and seems to be forming a basing pattern. Coach hasn't done this. In the long run Coach is an awesome company and it can be held for the long run, but you can also get retail exposure without much overseas risk with XRT, the index of American retailers.

You should buy growth stocks when they are just beginning to break out of a basing pattern and when the market is in a rally, not a correction.

Shaping the Battlefield in Washington DC

Charts: We are in the middle of a harsh correction and the S&P 500 has been punching down through support levels. 1340 is the March intraday low. If 1340 holds with strong support we might be okay. If the broad index plunges through 1340 in big volume with a bad advance/decline line, then it might get really hairy.

Fundamentals: Mark Twain said that history doesn't repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes. The past is a rough guide for the future. The Euro-zone crisis is just like the Asian Contagion of the late 1990s. Back then a sovereign debt crisis started on the periphery of Asia in Thailand. The crisis then moved into stronger Asian countries like South Korea. These two Asian countries are like Greece and France in the current crisis.

The IMF bailed out each new Asian country as the crisis spread domino fashion. The bail outs only made the crisis worse. Finally Russia was hit. After fumbling about Russia refused to be bailed out. This slammed global financial markets but it was the end game for the crisis and markets recovered in a few months. If Russia had been bailed out, then the crisis would have kept getting worse.

Greece is probably going to default on its debt and exit the Euro-zone, taking the path of Zimbabwe, printing money (after creating a new Greek drachma) to give salary increases to civil servants, lower state pension age requirements, etc. The resulting hyperinflation will be so disastrous that the other PIIGS will probably be scared straight. This could spell the end game of the current crisis.

Even if this rosy scenario plays out in the best possible manner, it will still be very rough for the stock market over the next few months. The wild card is, of course, the price of oil. If it drops far enough, we might catch a break because China could then loosen monetary policy and kick start global growth. So, as always, we only have one friend: the CIA.

Long War: The CIA is telling the whole world about the double agent it placed in AQAP who foiled an Al-Qaeda airliner bomb plot. It is practically shouting about this hugely successful mission, which also resulted in drone strikes in Yemen which killed top Al-Qaeda leaders. Congressional watchdog committees were not informed about this clandestine operation beforehand as required by law. Congress is complaining about being kept in the dark. The fight between the CIA and Congress is very public. The American public is not stupid and can see the wisdom of keeping the blabbermouth morons in Congress in the dark about future CIA clandestine operations.

Petraeus is kicking the Congressional watchdogs in the gut real hard, setting the stage for keeping them in the dark about all future operations. Slowly, bit by bit, the CIA is going rogue (a good thing).

Remember my blog about Petraeus reaching out and grabbing assets from Army Intelligence (DIA)? Along those same lines, new rules are being crafted for US Special Forces, giving Special Forces commanders greater operational freedom, taking them out of the control of the Joint Chiefs and the old guard at the Pentagon. This looks like another Petraeus asset grab. He is very grabby and likes to pull resources away from other parts of the US military/intelligence community, stuffing them into the CIA. You may have also read that the AQAP double agent was from Saudi Intelligence. It seems that Petraeus is expanding his power base into allied Islamic Intelligence Agencies.

Charts and fundamentals are very bad. The only thing standing in the way of Armageddon is the genius of the CIA Director. It is as if we are in an Indiana Jones movie where the hero is running across a collapsing rope bridge. Will he make it to the other side in time before the bridge collapses? Maybe. It depends on how brilliant Petraeus really is.

You Do The Math

Fundamentals: We are told by the press that austerity doesn't work in the Euro-periphery, it only makes things worse. Latvia and Ireland are the only two Euro-periphery countries to actually implement austerity and serious free market reform. In 2009 GDP in Latvia contracted a startling 18%. This put the fear of God in the Latvians and they embraced the free market with both hands. Last year growth in Latvia was a robust 5%, among the strongest in the world. Ireland has one of the stronger economies in Europe. It is growing right now, it isn't growing very fast but it is growing while most of Europe is in recession. Ireland and Latvia did not have any riots or huge general strikes. Italy has had only a few riots, less than the other Euro-zone basket cases, and it has the next strongest economy among these so-called PIIGS countries. Italy has also had more free market reform than any PIIGS except Latvia and Ireland. There is a direct one to one relationship between free market reform in indebted Euro-zone countries and economic growth.

Editor's Note: Latvia is in the Euro-zone. It doesn't use the euro but it does peg its currency to the euro, which amounts to the same thing. So Greece has no excuse.

Long War: Netanyahu was eager to call for an early election. His only possible opponent is a woman named Shelly, who has no experience in the military and is weaker on defense than any other Israeli politician in history. Polls show most Israelis do not want an air strike on Iran. But they fear Shelly will make such a weak PM they would vote for Netanyahu even if it meant an unpopular war. Calling the early election seemed like a brilliant idea on Netanyahu's part.

Out of the blue, Netanyahu cancelled the early election and announced that he is instead forging an new coalition of political parties that will allow him to attack Iran. Except he is the only one talking about attacking Iran. His new coalition partners aren't saying anything like that.

So somebody just bitch slapped Netanyahu, the strongest and most hawkish Israeli PM ever. Who do you think is it was? The media would say Shelly was the one doing the bitch slapping. Shelly, the weakest politician in Israel's history. Give me a break.

Pound Sand

Fundamentals: Socialists have won elections in France and Greece. They vow to eliminate austerity. But what can they do? The socialists will go to private investors in the bond market and say, "Loan us money so we can raise the retirement age on our state pensions." Private investors will refuse. So the socialists will make the same request to the ECB. The ECB will say, "Pound sand!" Then the socialists can either go back to their voters and actually implement austerity and free market reform or they can leave the Euro-zone. Leaving the Euro-zone will mean instant hyper-inflation a la Zimbabwe.

So long as the stock market sees the above scenario playing out with no major countries taking the Zimbabwe option, we might be okay.

Long War: This is what I think Petraeus is doing: He is shaping the global battlefield in preparation for future action. He is not trying to win the Long War in the near future, but rather move chess pieces around so that in a few years there can be a push to start rolling back the bad guys.

This shaping exercise seems to involve massive effort in one or two key spots and letting things slide elsewhere. For instance, we saw the big national and super-national armies of Kenya, Ethiopia, and the African Union pour everything they had into a mighty campaign to destroy the conventional fighting capabilities of Al-Shabab in North Africa. But there hasn't been much effort to rein in AQIM in Mali and Nigeria, where the bad guys are spreading unchecked. However they are spreading away from the center of the Long War, expanding out into the periphery, the edge of northern and central Africa. So the African part of the Long War is not smaller, it just has a different (better) shape.

Now we see massive effort poured into Yemen. Only yesterday an Al-Qaeda leader with a $5 million bounty on his head was killed by CIA drones. We are told this bad guy was plotting an attack on America. Along with massive drone action we are seeing huge battles in Yemen similar to the huge battles that dislodged Al-Shabab in Somalia.

At the same time the drone campaign has ramped up again in the Pak tribal lands.

Pressure is being applied at just two places. This will change the shape of the global battlefield which forms a gigantic arc starting with the ex-Soviet countries in central Asia through the Mideast and down into Africa. This evolving "new shape" seems to involve punching holes in the arc, cutting it up into little arcs.

Correction begins

Charts: The S&P 500 smashed downward through its 50-day moving average today. Chartists will say that the market is now in a correction. While they are probably right we should be alert to the possibility that the market is entering a period of sideways movement. There are some ugly chart indicators smacking us in the face but there is one bright spot: correlation between stocks has dissipated. It is a stock pickers market but a very challenging one.

Fundamentals: Lately I've been talking about the super productivity of corporate America. Today the Journal ran an article that says productivity has peaked and is starting to come down. This means, once again, we have only one hope: that our good friends at Langley can straighten out the Long War and bring oil prices down. Which means we could move into consumer stocks even more than we already have.

Long War: There are more Al-Qaeda operatives in Yemen than in Afghanistan and Pakistan combined. Yemen is the true heart of the evil beast. The CIA has nearly finished purging the Yemeni Army of bad guys. Pro-American Yemeni President Hadi is establishing control over his armed forces and the war is being taken to the bad guys. The Western Press is reporting that Yemeni warplanes are making strike after strike. But it seems more likely that these air strikes are CIA drones firing Raytheon Hellfire missiles. This is probably happening while the Yemeni Air Force has an airplane or two loitering about, providing a plausible explanation for the aerial assault to the Western press. I am encouraged by the press management style of the new CIA Director.

AQAP is unable to spread out of Yemen and into Africa by way of Somalia because the CIA has destroyed Al-Shabab's conventional force structure and reduced the Somali bad guys to terrorists who have limited ability to seize and hold ground. This means AQAP and AQIM cannot combine forces through a kind of land/sea bridge. So there is good long term strategic planning and execution. AQIM is, however, spreading out in Africa and has its own kingdom now in Mali.

In Iran the Ayatollah seems to be gaining power over Ahmadinejad. This is bad.

Coincidence? I Don't Think So

Charts: In 2011 the S&P 500 closed almost exactly flat after a roller coaster ride of savage volatility. The only other time we had a chart pattern like that was in 1948 when the broad index closed almost exactly flat after the same sort of roller coaster ride. The 1950s saw one of the greatest bull markets in history. The 50s were the golden age of the CIA. Never before or since has Langley had such earth shaking power.

Fundamentals: The most recent GDP data shows the US economy growing at a very weak 2.2%. Strip out inventory distortions and growth was only 1.5%. But corporate profit as a percent of GDP continues to hit new all time highs. In the 1930s corporate profit as a percent of GDP was also very high. Why? Because the loose monetary policies of the 1920s made corporate America fat, happy and stupid. When the Great Depression hit there was plenty of room to tighten up. In the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s we also had overly loose monetary policy. When the Great Recession hit there were over 2 1/2 decades of fat, happy, and stupid to work off. Corporations keep getting more efficient and profitable because they are hacking off an enormous backlog of fat, happy and stupid business practices.

Long War: Israeli PM Netanyahu is being publicly attacked by the former head of Mossad, the former head of Israeli Internal Security, the former PM, the current top ranking Israeli military officer, and (not publicly) the current head of Mossad. All these powerful Israelis are saying the Israeli Air Force must not bomb Iran. It is a true revolt and more than the PM can counter.

Netanyahu is so weakened politically that he is calling for early elections, where the issue will be whether or not to attack Iran. The voters will probably boot him out and if so there will be no Israeli attack on Iran. And the world will be saved from a disastrous war that would clobber the stock market besides killing hundreds of thousands of people.

Do you think five of the most powerful Israelis spontaneously decided to rise up against the PM out of the blue? Do you think the anti-Israeli CIA actions that I talked about in my last couple blogs are a coincidence to this Netanyahu backlash? Do you think it is a coincidence that the CIA is now run by the most anti-Israeli director to have ever existed? Do you think it is a coincidence that Director Petraeus has demonstrated an ability to reach out and transform internal politics/ tribal structures within Middle Eastern countries?

The Long War is not WW II. And Vietnam was not WW II. Massive conventional firepower, the shock and awe we saw at the start of the first Gulf War, is not the answer to Long War battles. The answer is spooks not nukes.

CIA Director Petraeus

Long War: When he was an Army general, Petraeus left bigger fingerprints than he does now. Therefore it is easier to analyze this part of his career and gain an insight into what he is doing now. Consider the Sunni Awakening Movement in Iraq.

The Baker report had just come out and the Joint Chiefs in the Pentagon were ready to pull the plug in Iraq and create a Vietnam defeat that would have been catastrophic for long term world peace and the global economy. Against this backdrop President Bush and Gen. Petraeus built a parallel Joint Chiefs organization inside the White house and launched the Awakening Movement strategy against the will of the Pentagon.

Petraeus reached into the bowels of Iraq's Sunni tribal structure, using Egyptian Intelligence as his instrument of persuasion. He convinced the Sunni tribal chieftains to declare war on Al-Qaeda. He guided that war from the White house just like Ollie North did for Reagan. He won that war within a war.

Now consider his ability as a US Army general in Iraq to muzzle the press. We won't go into details as to how he did it but the press was muzzled and this played a big role in turning the Iraq War around.

Okay, how does that help us today? Yemeni tribesmen are rising up, banding into effective militias, and attacking Al-Qaeda in increasing numbers. The pattern is similar to the Sunni Awakening Movement. The Yemeni press is reporting about 50 times more CIA drone strikes in Yemen that the Western press is reporting. Again to save space we will state that the Yemeni Press is more accurate than the Western press without going into details. This smells like a Petraeus press muzzling maneuver.

Looking For Fingerprints

Long War: Suicide bomber attacks against Assad's Syrian Army are occuring in a steady drumbeat. These terror strikes come straight from Al-Qaeda. Bad guys are attacking bad guys. The Free Syria Army is unable to hive off the jihadist elements within its own ranks. These elements are responsible for the slow destruction of the ceasefire. The ceasefire will probably collapse and the UN will pull out its personnel.

If the Syria Civil War returns to full strength then it is not only imperative the Free Syria Army win, it is also imperative that its Al-Qaeda link be severed. Giving the Syrian rebels the weapons, training, and leadership necessary to win will go a long way to blowing Al-Qaeda out of the tub. The reason why there is a jihadist link at all is because the Free Syria Army is not getting enough help from the Western alliance.

Official American policy on Syria is to apply sanctions to Assad's regime and no covert action will be taken. Our job, as always, is to look for fingerprints in Syria, to see how the CIA is violating offcial American policy.

Ah-ha! Do I spot one? Turkey is building large permanent refugee camps for displaced Syrians inside its borders, well away from the combat; as if Turkey is hunkering down for a long guerrilla war.

Do You See Fingerprints?

Charts: The market is in a technical rally. The charts are saying the correction is over. Sometimes charts are wrong.

Fundamentals: Corporate profits as a percent of GDP are at an all time high. The were at about this level in the 1930s. So these are the two periods where corporate profits could grow without the economy growing very much. Productivity increases are not yet peaking. Corporate America keeps getting more efficient. This is also one of the reasons why employment is not increasing.

Long War: The CIA just got bigger. CIA Director Petraeus reached out, grabbed the US Army's intelligence arm (which is called DIA), and said: "You are now part of the CIA." The media is reporting this story as the DIA is being reorganized to resemble the CIA's Clandestine Services division. Yeah right. Meet your new boss. You army maggots are going to learn the CIA way or its the highway. Next Petraeus will grab US Army Special Forces.

Petraeus got the White house to liberalize rules of engagement for drone warfare in Yemen. Petraeus asked for but did not get the right to use drones in close air support of pro-American Yemeni troops. He will probably use the drones for close air support anyway, regardless of whether or not he has permission, because Yemen is the Wild West.

The highest ranking Israeli military officer is saying Iran is not making a nuclear weapon and has no actual weapons program, only an uranium enrichment program. This directly contradicts Israeli PM Netanyahu and is actually close to insubordination, throwing Israel's top leadership into extreme conflict because the PM couldn't order an air strike against Iran if his ranking military officers disagree that such a strike is necessary. We must ask the obvious question: Does this incident look like it has CIA fingerprints on it? You tell me.

CIA vs Israel?

Charts: On Friday the S&P 500 closed exactly at its 50-day moving average. Since the correction started a couple weeks ago the broad index had been swinging rapidly over and under the 50-day line. By settling exactly on the battlefield number the charts were saying the next big move would be technically significant. Today we had a monster down day. The charts then are saying weakness breeds weakness and more loses are likely.

Fundamentals: Southern Europe is contracting faster than expected. The multi-trillion dollar bail-out funds owned by the EU and IMF are probably going to be tapped by Spain. The markets are beginning to fear that Germany won't allow another bail-out of a Periphery country. The markets are most likely wrong and Germany will allow Spain to get bailed-out, but not without a lot of kicking and screaming. Germany's kicking and screaming might be enough to cause global economic damage.

Long War: Egypt is saying it will break its fuel contract with Israel. Pipeline deliveries will shut down shortly. Jihadist bombers in the Sinai had over the past year shut down 50% of the pipelines leading from Egypt to Israel already. Whether the gas was flowing or not, breaking this contract is a big deal because this commercial contract is actually part of the Camp David Accords and forms the backbone of the peace treaty that ended the Arab-Israeli wars.

The above news item, on the surface, seems to be very bad news. And almost certainly the surface level analysis is right and this probably really is bad news. An alternate analysis occurs to me that would put it in a different light. Even though the alternative is probably wrong let me throw it out for grins.

We know from his public statements as a US Army general that CIA Director Petraeus is very hostile to Israel, more hardcore on this position than any other US general. It seems strange that the CIA is allowing terrorists in the Sinai in the first place. With its ability to marshal the resources of Egyptian intelligence it had always been able to clear the Sinai of anti-Israeli terrorists, until recently.

And the way the Egyptian gas contract was broken was strange. Egyptian gas company executives made the call, not anybody actually in the Egyptian government.

And then two months ago the Iranian government claims that it captured a large number of Israeli assassins, hinting that it was part of the ring of assassins who had killed so many Iranian nuclear scientists. And then the Iranians shut up publicly about their big haul, like they maybe actually had something and realized they needed to keep their mouths shut.

I keep getting this weird feeling that Petraeus is sticking it to Israel.

Bumpy Ride Ahead

Charts: The S&P 500's 50-day moving average is 1378. The broad index closed below the 50-day line today. The market is therefore in a correction.

Fundamentals: The European Central Bank pumped $1.3 trillion into European private banks at the beginning of the year with the understanding they would buy Euro-periphery government bonds, which they did. That $1.3 trillion is now gone and the Euro debt problem is once again out of control. The ECB has to pump another trillion dollars worth of cheap loans into its banks or all hell will break loose. The ECB will only act once hell starts breaking loose, not before. Buckle up, its going to be a bumpy ride.

Long War: The UN has hammered out an extensive monitoring mission with Assad's government in Syria. Now the UN is talking with the rebels to get them to sign on. The rebels have to start policing themselves and purge Al-Qaeda militants from their ranks for the ceasefire to keep holding. I'm not going to guess whether that is possible or not. Al-Qaeda attacks within Syria seem to be going down. The ceasefire is holding by the skin of its teeth.

The new rebel government in Mali is not tackling the Kingdom of Al-Qaeda that has sprung up in its backyard, despite promising the Western alliance that it would do so. It is intolerable for Al-Qaeda to build sovereign nation-states and not face withering attacks. A CIA drone campaign will someday have to be launched in Mali.

All these major Long War issues are CIA problems, in other words there is nothing the Pentagon can do about them. I keep thinking there isn't enough CIA to go around. And then I remember how CIA Director Petraeus launched the Sunni Awakening Movement in Iraq, the most brilliant military campaign in the Long War so far. So there is a sort of race between Petraeus' brilliance and the lack of resources he has been given.

Al-Qaeda in Syria

Long War: It is always bad news when a key Long War turning point receives attention from voters in Europe and America. Al-Qaeda is always better at manipulating public opinion than the leaders of NATO countries. The western press is rabidly covering the ceasefire violations on the part of the Syrian Army but not giving context and analysis. In media accounts civilian and rebel Free Syrian Army deaths are being trumpeted but not the terror strikes that are being inflicted on Assad's Syrian Army and are triggering the violence.

There are bad guys intermingled with good guys in the Syrian rebel movement and it seems like Al-Qaeda is trying to break the ceasefire by sending individual bombers into Assad's ranks. Al-Qaeda is goading Assad's soldiers into firing into rebel strongholds.

NATO leaders are apparently aware of this dynamic and are pushing forward with a full UN monitoring mission, saying that the ceasefire is holding although fighting is slowly ramping back up. Also, we see that Russia is saying it will hold back weapons sales to Syria. Russia supplies Assad with 90% of his weapons. China too is putting pressure on Assad. All UN Security Council members therefore are putting their weight behind the ceasefire. This is further proof that Al-Qaeda is the main international power trying to scuttle the ceasefire because it is the only common enemy that can unite Russia and China to a US position.

Israel is certainly not involved in any militant activity in Syria, but it is interesting to note that it would like to see the Iranian peace talks collapse and by extension the Syrian ceasefire breaking as well. So Al-Qaeda and Israel would like to see the same thing. The extreme left and the extreme right always end up looking like each other.

Israel Has Big Problems

Long War: Israel is opening up private Palestinian land for settlement in the West Bank, probably scuttling the latest round of Israeli/Palestinian peace talks. Then Israel says it still might bomb Iran even though peace talks with the American led 5 plus 1 group of big powers are ongoing. The market is taking some notice of Israel's bellicosity and we aren't seeing as big a drop in oil prices as we should after Iran caved in day one of the big talks.
By kicking Obama so hard in the gut, Israel is taking an enormous gamble that not only will Romney win the election, but that he will switch over from Obama's anti-Israeli policies to mindless pro-Israeli policies. Romney would have to fire CIA Director Petraeus to make that switch.
We have to understand what Israel (under its current leadership) wants out of the current Iranian crisis. Israel does not want a peace treaty between 5 plus 1 and Iran to materialize. What Israel wants is for America to destroy Iran in a large conventional war. The Israeli Air Force, by itself, can do very little harm to the Iranian nuclear development program. All the Israeli Air Force is good for is starting a war that the American Air Force would then have to win.
Netanyahu may be underestimating Obama, or overestimating himself. Either way, he is pretty whacked out right now. The reason? A UN general resolution is gathering steam that will recognize an independent Palestinian state. When it passes the UN General Assembly, Israel is going to have to decide once and for all if it wants a two state solution or another war.

Syria is Everything

Charts: The S&P 500 is still mired in a correction and the 50-day line continues to throw up resistance. Apple dropped 4% today, reflecting overall weak leadership.

Fundamentals: The earning season is off to a good start, 76% of S&P 500 companies have beat analysts estimates so far.

Long War: The Walter Cronkite effect is in full swing. This is when the media portrays Long War victories as defeats, hearkening back to the Vietnam era of spin distortion. The Afghan Taliban and its allies mounted the largest attack on the capital city of Kabul in years. Yes, they paralyzed the city for a while but the bad guys were totally routed. 35 dead bad guys vs. 10 dead good guys. Almost no civilian casualties. When the Parliament building was attacked the politicians inside grabbed AK47s, got on the rooftop, and started killing Taliban and Haqqani fighters (studly). Afghan Special Forces easily outflanked the bad guys in an 18 hour long battle with very little NATO help.

A few days ago I said the good guys were losing in Yemen, but that battle has turned around and now Al-Qaeda is losing. America seems to have successfully isolated the bad part of the Yemeni Army and the good Yemeni Army is in full combat mode.

Sudan and South Sudan are inching toward a total war but Egypt is throwing a full court press on the diplomatic front and seems to be making headway. It seems to me heavy CIA activity nowadays comes in the guise of pro-US Arab powers taking action. Something is holding the two armies back, but this is a dangerous LW flashpoint.

The ceasefire in Syria is holding even though western media reports say that it is not (Walter Cronkite effect). Al jeezera reports that there are two confirmed deaths in the last day of fighting in Syria. Before the ceasefire there were 100 deaths a day, not two. UN monitors are currently taking up positions. This is what a successful ceasefire in the Mideast looks like. Syria is the epicenter of the Long War right now. The ceasefire holding is good news.

Iran Caves. Everything Depends on Syria

Long War: Iran buckled at the anti-nuclear talks over the weekend. The media is portraying the talks as mildly positive to horrible. Israel is saying the talks are a disaster. The Republicans will throw their weight behind Israel and play obstructionist. The market may react negatively because of media spin. The truth is Iran caved.

The lead Iranian negotiator quoted Ayatollah Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons during the talks. A version of the fatwa was turned into a flag and hung over the one-day talks. Iran was willing to bring up the subject of restrictions on uranium enrichment at 20%. So Iran is starting this massive diplomatic process by saying it is a sin to make nuclear weapons. And it also says it will at least keep talking about restrictions on enrichment. Without unrestricted enrichment Iran cannot make nuclear weapons. Those are big concessions for day one.

The media will say that this round of talks is over and another round will begin in one month in Iraq. That isn't true, the talks will be ongoing from now until the formal and public meeting in Baghdad in four weeks. Everything could fall apart by then and maybe nothing will come of the weekend's positive news, but it is encouraging.

If Iran were to truly cave and agree to stop uranium enrichment at 5%, then the oil sanctions against Iran would come down. There are tankers full of Iranian oil sitting in the Gulf. Iranian oil production is still running at high capacity. Oil prices would then crash and the global economy would get a shot in the arm.

Obviously this is a pretty rosy scenario. It looks good right now but Iran would probably turn hard line overnight if the ceasefire in Syria doesn't hold. Therefore that is the forward looking indicator for the Iran crisis: The ceasefire holding in Syria.

Correction Continues

Charts: The S&P 500 plunged back down through its 50-day moving average today. This means the correction is ongoing. Volatility is back to record highs, which is bearish. The huge rally that began in the fall first saw coiling behavior from the index, or we could call this a wedge pattern. Generally speaking whichever way a wedge breaks to after it has narrowed to a sharp point is the direction the market will go in the medium term (some months). Right now copper has formed a lengthy wedge pattern and seems to be breaking to the downside. Copper is more than just a metal, it is an important technical indicator. So it is bad that it has broken down out of its wedge.

Fundamentals: China's GDP growth, while still high at about 8%, has slowed sharply. This is why the market sold off today. However the Chinese GDP report also showed that Chinese loans grew sharply, setting up the Great Dragon for economic growth later in the year when the result of all those loans will be felt on the street. What this means is that we are back to the price of oil being the key factor for the global economy. If oil comes down, then that sharp uptick in Chinese loans will spell further growth for the world economy. And the price of oil is contingent on the anti-nuclear talks with Iran and 5 plus 1 that just started in Turkey.

Long War: Stay tuned over the weekend for my analysis of the Iranian talks.

Bad News is Good

Charts: The S&P 500 smashed upward through its 50-day moving average. The 50-day line was the battleground technical indicator for this correction. If the index finds support there and/or trades above that line, then the correction is over.

Fundamentals: You, me and all equity investors hunger for QE like a wino craves alcohol. Yesterday the ECB hinted it was ready for QE2 and the Fed hinted it was ready for QE3. Today economic data came in weak, among other weak data points jobless claims ticked up. If the data is bad, then the winos (you and me) get a big fat bottle of Mad Dog 20/20. Yippee!

Long War: There is a good Yemeni Army (anti-jihadist) and a bad Yemeni Army (pro-jihadist). The two are somewhat separate but to a degree still intermingled. When the good Yemeni Army goes to battle with Al-Qaeda it finds military planes have been sabotaged by soldiers from within its own ranks. America and the CIA have been working heroically to hive off the bad from the good within the Yemeni Army. It seems to be working. Yemeni war planes are flying again and are taking out tanks that the bad Yemeni Army gave to Al-Qaeda. The weight of the renewed aerial assault is now taking its toil on the jihadis. CIA drones are active and working in concert with the good Yemenis.

The new leader of Mali says he will begin a war soon against AQIM and try to destroy the Kingdom of Al-Qaeda that has sprung up in his back yard. The rebel groups that worked with AQIM to seize half the country (an area bigger than France) have disavowed their jihadist partner and promised various levels of support or neutrality in the coming war. CIA fingerprints in all this are glaringly obvious. Why would rebel leaders sell out their partner AQIM? Clearly they are being threatened in a convincing manner.

The Syrian Army is honoring a UN ceasefire accord as talks begin with Iran and the US led group called 5 plus 1, so Iran is reining Assad in, at least for now. Ahmadinejad wants to play ball with 5 plus 1 and the Ayatollah does not. The Ayatollah is not necessarily more powerful than Ahmadinejad within Iran. The best way to gauge Ahmadinejad's strength is to listen to what he says when he is hauled in front of the Iranian Parliament. Last time this happened he mocked the members of Parliament for having fake college degrees (which I guess many of them have). Licking its wounds after this tongue lashing, Parliament passed a new law supposedly giving it the power to easily impeach the PM Ahmadinejad. If it tries and fails to impeach him, the Ayatollah is in big trouble. Have you noticed how assassination attempts from Mossad and CIA have stopped? The good guys are trying to help the PM.

A Perfect Storm

Charts: The S&P 500 smashed downward through its 50-day moving today. Selling accelerated once this key technical level was breached. Volatility has skyrocketed. Yields on Spanish and Italian debt are screaming upward, threatening the Euro-zone.

Fundamentals: The Euro-debt problem was smoothed over in recent months when the ECB injected $1.3 trillion into European banks. That was the Euro-zone's QE1. The market is now demanding a Euro-zone QE2. Of course this is solving a debt problem with more debt. The only way this will work is if the extra debt buys time for free market reforms to be implemented. Right now the Euro-zone has austerity fatigue and free market reforms are linked to austerity. Amazingly, America also has austerity fatigue, even though the US has not implemented any austerity measures.

Long War: The situation in Mali has gotten worse. AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) has carved out a kingdom for itself in the strife torn African nation. The AU army will have to start and win a new war to eliminate this new jihadist nation-state. The AU depends on American funding to wage war. This is a problem. Under the best scenario it will take years to win this new war if it ever occurs. Give peace a chance is not an option, not when you are dealing with Al-Qaeda.

AQAP (Al-Qaeda Arabian Peninsula) continues to defeat the Yemeni Army in open warfare and continues to sport high kill ratios. The Yemeni Army is split into two camps: pro-Al-Qaeda and anti-Al-Qaeda. Probably for this reason we are seeing tanks and other heavy weapons move from the Yemeni Army arsenal to Al-Qaeda. Thus we should not call AQAP's military force a militia, but a true army. There is massive American involvement in Yemen.

A lot of effort was put into defeating Al-Shabab in Somalia last year. This created a strategic buffer separating AQAP and AQIM. We are seeing AQIM move into Nigeria to strengthen its affiliate Boko Haram. And indeed Boko Haram is tearing apart its host country. Probably AQIM will try to move into Somalia once it has firmed up its gains in the other parts of North Africa. If Al-Shabab were to re-emerge it would be very bad.

The Long War has two halves: Iran and Al-Qaeda. The Syrian War is part of the Iranian conflict. And that part of the LW is not going very well.

We are in a period where the good guys are losing the LW. This is a century long conflict, so the tides of war will ebb and flow.

Correction

Charts: The market has gone from rally to correction. This is the first correction of 2012. There is no way to know if this correction will force the market down a mere 3-5% or if it will morph into a full-fledged bear.

In previous blogs I have said a brand new bull market was born in October 2011. For a while the charts were saying a new bull market had emerged. A few weeks ago the charts started signaling a different message. The downturn in 2011 was a correction, not a bear market. The current bull market is 3 years old. It is prone to 17-20%corrections. There have been two that big so far.

It is also prone to powerful rallies in paper thin volume. The most recent rally was like that. And this is one of the technical indicators that tells us we are in the same old bull market. Others include large caps outperforming small caps and identical leadership before and after the 2011 downturn. Example: Apple and Priceline.

The most important technical indicator right now is Spanish bond yields.

Fundamentals: Bond vigilantes are tearing into Spain, recreating the same problems we faced with Greece. America's latest jobs report was horrible. Economic data from China is mixed. The root of all these problems is high oil prices. We could see central banks here and everywhere loosening monetary policy to juice the world economy. This might jolt stocks upward but it would also put upward pressure on oil prices if there isn't a Long War breakthrough with Iran. This might not lead to generalized inflation. It might not even be that great for oil companies if consumption goes down.

Long War: Al Qaeda is winning in Yemen. The Yemeni Army is by and large losing when it enters battle with Al Qaeda. America is stepping up its efforts there and seems to be making brutal leadership changes inside the Yemeni government. Despite the bad news the fact that the US is apparently able to sack Yemeni leaders is encouraging. Drone strikes are increasing and will eventually start hurting the bad guys. Still, I get the Willies when the bad guys have higher kill ratios than the good guys.

The government of Mali was overthrown recently. AQIM (Al Qaeda North Africa) is a major player in the new Mali and has already grabbed several villages for itself and its affiliates. France is sending Special Forces there. The African Union is in the early stages of mobilizing against the new Mali. Bear in mind the AU Army has pretty much defeated Al-Shabab in Somalia and Al-Shabab was very tough, equal to AQIM. It is possible the new Mali won't want to screw with the AU and will break ranks with AQIM.

Sudan and South Sudan are on the verge of full-fledged war, although peace talks are ongoing and total war has not yet broken out. At one point Sudan leader Bashir worked with the CIA and it probably has some hooks in him.

The big LW battlefield is Syria. If Assad is overthrown it would mean Iran's overseas military empire is doomed, this would break Iran's power to jack oil prices, which is everything to us. There is supposed to be a UN mandated ceasefire in a few days. The US says the rebels will be armed if Assad breaks the ceasefire. This would mark the start of a whole new war and obviously the good guys have to win.

I'm sure you've noticed that every one of these hotspots has no chance of ever seeing USMC boots on the ground. They are all owned 100% by the CIA. Is Langley overstretched?

In a previous blog I mentioned that the CIA and NSA are obligated by the Camp David Accord to monitor and react to all militant activity in Egypt's Sinai peninsula. Entrenched jihadist militias are now routinely launching rockets from Sinai into Israel. Oil pipelines leading from Egypt into Israel have been bombed 48 times. So Langley has abandoned an old (but very important) outpost. Obviously then it is overstretched.

But then CIA Director Petraeus is the greatest military mind since George Patton.

All Eyes on Iran

Charts: The price action for the S&P 500 isn't that bad despite the current sell-off but the volume pattern is not good. Over the past couple weeks we have seen big volume on down days and weaker volume on up days, a sign that hedge funds are bailing out. Most chartists then would say we have either entered a correction or the rally is under significant pressure. At the beginning of a correction all we can ever say is that it could turn into a bear market or it could be mild and represent a buying opportunity.

Fundamentals: The Euro-zone crisis is flaring up and the price of oil is elevated. We can point to other problems too, like the slow down in China, but all economic sins come from the original sin: the threat of Israel bombing Iran and the subsequent increase in energy costs. This is the source of all global economic weakness. So, oh joy, we need to focus on the Long War.

Long War: In Yemen, Al-Qaeda at last has an army, not a militia. When the American backed Yemeni Army attacks the Kingdom of Al-Qaeda in southern Yemen it is routinely defeated by the Al-Qaeda army and kill ratios are about 2-1 favoring the bad guys. This has never happened before in the Long War. The CIA now has a very robust drone campaign in Yemen that is as big as the campaign in the Pak tribal lands. Getting very little attention is the fact that Iran has carved out a puppet state in northern Yemen.

The US says Saudi Arabia and Qatar will start arming the Free Syrian Army if Assad doesn't roll over and surrender at once. Assad will not roll over. What the US is actually saying is it will soon unleash the CIA in Syria. First of all, it is disconcerting that the CIA is currently leashed in this, the most important, LW battlefield. What's up with that? Syria is of course the primary puppet government of Iran and if the good guys can't take out Assad, we're screwed.

In Iran itself, Ahmadinejad is locked in a political struggle with the Ayatollah. If the US and its allies are able to keep making the sanctions against Iran bite and if they can start dismantling Iran's puppets, then Ahmadinejad will allow UN weapons inspectors into his country and essentially capitulate to Western demands on nuclear weapons development. The Ayatollah will see his country go up in flames rather than play ball with the West. So Ahmadinejad is now a good bad guy. And winning the war in Syria is key to everything: undermining the Ayatollah, putting Ahmadinejad in charge of Iran, starting peace talks which makes it impossible for Israel to attack Iran, which will knock down the price of oil, which will take pressure off the Euro-zone, which will cause Italian and Spansih bond yields to go down, which will cause the stock market rally to resume.

So guess what? This all is dependent on the White House taking the leash off the CIA, a leash that should never be there in the first place. The leash will remain tight if Obama thinks he can coast to election day without doing anything bold; this is his natural inclination. The leash will come off if Obama thinks he can't wait until after the election. As always, Obama knows what the he should do, he is not stupid like Jimmy Carter. Obama is smart, but is he courageous? Time will tell.