Biden Plan is Bearish

Geopolitics: Three Islamic insurgencies have been successfully quelled so far in the Long War: Chechnya, Iraq, and the Swat Valley. All three have gone through open rebellion, a war that crushed the rebellion, a successful occupation by the conquering power, and a gradual handover to a local security force. In the case of Chechnya, the occupation by Russian soldiers was abruptly, prematurely, and stupidly ended a few months ago, before the handover was complete, possibly bringing the Chechen Islamic rebellion back. Up until that blunder Chechnya was in good shape. What do the three successful Islamic pacification campaigns have in common?
All three featured massive use of ground forces on the part of the national armies of the primary power: Russia, America, and Pakistan (collectively we can call them RAP), i.e. lots of boots on the ground. In each case the RAP armies fought the bad guys to a standstill while simultaneously raising and training an indigenous army and/or local militias. In all three cases, hold and clear was the only tactic that worked, any ground captured by a RAP army must then also be permanently held by large numbers of RAP troops, again lots of boots on the ground. The RAP troops are only able to leave a conquered area when a successful transfer of occupying duties to indigenous troops/militia fighters occurs. In Chechnya and Iraq, big problems occurred when indigenous forces were put into combat too quickly or occupation duties were thrust on them too quickly. Many years are needed to make the transfer work. All three RAP forces essentially followed the American counter-insurgency manual, the bible for this type of warfare.

No wonder the US anti-guerilla manual is considered so effective. America has a perfect record in counter-insurgency warfare. In the early 20th century the US Army fought a 25-year long campaign against a powerful Philippine guerilla movement and won. Vietnam is a pure success story as far as counter-insurgency is concerned. In Vietnam the primary insurgents were called Viet Cong. The last two years of the Vietnam War featured straight conventional war between north and south with tanks and warplanes, essentially WW II type combat. There was no Viet Cong guerilla movement, America had completely wiped it out. And then Iraq is still another major counter-insurgency success. That makes three big wins in the last century and with three turns at the plate America has a batting average of 1000. This tells us that the Pentagon knows what it is doing and will win in Afghanistan if the pinheads get out of the way.
There are now three plans being presented to Obama: The Biden Plan, The Gates Plan, and the McChrystal Plan. The scuttlebutt is that the Gates Plan calls for 20,000 new troops whereas the McChrystal Plan calls for 40,000 new troops and they are identical otherwise. The Biden Plan is a pinhead disaster. It calls for zero new troops and puts Biden’s personal operational philosophy above the Army counter-insurgency manual. Biden’s deeply held personal operational belief structure is about two weeks old. So both the Gates and McChrystal Plans are bullish and the Biden Plan is bearish, possibly super-bearish.