S. Waziristan Invaded!

Geopolitics: The South Waziristan campaign has started. The Paki Army began its invasion Saturday. By Sunday one Taliban town had been captured and secured with 60 bad guys killed and 5 good guys killed. The Army’s main thrust is toward a town called Makeen, H. Mehsud’s headquarters and stomping ground. North and South Waziristan contain three powerful rival Taliban militia alliances. The most powerful of all is H. Mehsud’s Taliban alliance (the Pakistani Taliban). This alliance is a dozen separate militias including H. Mehsud’s personal Mehsud tribal militia. The Pakistani Taliban commits 80% of Pakistan’s terror attacks. Sitting on top of the Pakistani Taliban is Mehsud’s tribal Taliban, the most powerful of the dozen or so smaller Talibans that make up the alliance. Obviously, H. Mehsud himself sits on top this entire evil structure.
From the opening action in the campaign we can see that the Paki Army is going straight for H. Mehsud, the Taliban super-chieftain, and his Mehsud tribal Taliban. The Army is rolling directly at his home town and the path appears to be greased by alliances from the two rival Talibans that control North Waziristan and other strategic real estate. This is good news. Remember, the North Waziristan Taliban almost killed H. Mehsud in the days following the drone strike that took out B. Mehsud. The 2 NW Talibans are potent good-bad-guys (bullish).
In Afghanistan, two or three separate firefights resulted in 14 dead bad guys and 1 dead US soldier. NATO is most likely inviting the bad guys to attack convoys and checkpoints and then walloping them in counter-attacks. This is tough on the enemy and it keeps good guy casualties down as the interminable debate grinds on in the White house on whether or not to grant McChrystal his troop request.
In Somalia, the battle lines that carve the capital city of Mogadishu between the good guys and the bad guys have become static as one side takes over a neighborhood only to be repelled after a few days of fighting and a return to the old battle lines. Outside of Mogadishu, the situation is more confusing, a lot of fighting has erupted between different militias but it is unclear who the good guys and bad guys are. It may be a good thing that Al-Shabab has less control over the country. For this to be so we must believe that the ensuing chaos and anarchy is better than Al-Shabab control, which is probably the case.
In Yemen, the government reports that recent fighting has resulted in 44 dead bad guys. The fighting is heavy with tanks, artillery and warplanes pounding bad guys around the key city of Sa’adah. The Yemeni Army says that it has captured the rebel’s field commander. Battlefield developments are therefore good. The bad guys are supported by Iran and a top level Iranian diplomat is now meeting with Yemeni diplomats. This too looks good. Maybe Iran will pull the rug out from under its puppets. Yemen’s separate rebellion to the south bubbles along. If the northern rebels are defeated, the government will turn to the south, these bad guys are Al-Qaeda and need to get whacked.