The CIA: Each paragraph represents a geopolitical event that bears CIA fingerprints.
As America has pulled troops out of Iraq, Iraqi oil production has soared. Oil contracts are very clean and well enforced. Clean contracts in the second most corrupt country in the world. Two weeks ago Al-Qaeda hit two pipelines in the south. The pipelines were fixed in record time. Oil exports were not affected. The Iraqi oil industry is a machine. It is almost up to 3 million barrels a day. this is much higher than under Saddam Hussein. As long as oil flows out of Iraq at ever increasing amounts the overall situation there is a net plus for the good guys in the Long War. For instance, if democracy were to fail in Iraq but oil exports actually accelerated, we win.
Libyan oil production is coming back ten times faster than experts predicted.
Hundreds of experienced Libyan fighters are joining the Free Syria Army. The FSA is based in Turkey and growing into a formidable military force. It is winning battles against the Syrian Army and holding ground. The territory it controls is small, just a few slivers of Syrian land, but that how it all starts. Every day we get causality numbers from the Syrian Civil War. These numbers seemed highly massaged. Mostly we just hear about civilian casualties at the hands of the Syrian Army. We aren't hearing about the hundreds of Syrian soldiers that have been killed so far by the good guys. Assad is in big trouble. If Assad is overthrown by the CIA, then Iran is toast.
The Air Force is complaining loudly that its pilots flying CIA drones are overworked. There is a mad scramble to find more drone pilots from the ranks of experienced older American fighter pilots. This means that 100 drones are aloft over the Long War battlefields at any one moment in time. They are probably making kills that we aren't hearing about in the mainstream media. This is probably why Al-Qaeda has taken up a new strategy of sowing sectarian tension between Sunni and Shiite. This is a desperate strategy: opening up a new war to win an existing one, two wars at once where before there had been only one.
The Muslim Brotherhood has so far sided with the Egyptian military, not the evil Salafist politicians as Egypt's election grinds forward. This is a volatile situation that is far from over, but so far so good. In a month or so the Salafist will take whatever seats they win in the new Egyptian parliament. The drafting of the new constitution will be the most significant Long War event in the coming year.
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
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