Welcome To The All CIA Channel

Charts: The S&P 500's 200-day moving average is 1264. The broad index is struggling with the 200-day line today. If it trades above 1264 for several days in a row, then chartists will say the summer's bear market is over. If not, we are still in a bear market.

The CIA and The Long War: Libyan oil production is ramping up ten times faster than experts predicted. The conventional war is over and there are no signs of an Islamic insurgency. This is because Qatar and the CIA are arming the Islamic militias who did the heavy fighting in the recent war. Qatar is also providing these militias with religious leadership and instruction, essentially taking them over and turning them into good bad guys. The government of Libya complains long and hard about this Qatari power base growing within their country, but to no avail. AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) has abandoned Libya as too dangerous and is moving into Nigeria. Libya is becoming something like what South Korea was in the Cold War, i.e. a pro-American Pit Bull.

A couple months ago Kenya and Ethiopia sent their armies pouring over the Somali border and knocked Al-Shabab out of Mogadishu and destroyed jihadist camps near the Kenyan border. So we have Kenya, Ethiopia, and Qatar acting in concert with the CIA to clobber the bad guys in Africa without one US Marine putting his boots on the ground. This is the only way to go in the Long War.

North Sudan has almost finished conquering the disputed border regions that were left after North and South Sudan split in two. South Sudan seems to be allowing these region to be absorbed by the North. This speaks to a CIA brokered wind-down of the mini-war in Sudan.

A few months ago the CIA leaked a message to the popular press: It was getting ready to unleash another computer virus against the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Intense security measures were then undertaken by Iran to protect its nuclear facilities. Probably protection measures were relaxed at Iran's missile development program. Taking advantage of this, the CIA sent a drone or pack of drones into Iran and blew up a convoy of trucks carrying rocket fuel. This attack killed the head of Iranian missile research.

While this was going on Obama announced that all US troops would soon leave Iraq (not good). This paves the way for Israel to attack Iran. The Israeli Air Force has to fly over Turkey or Iraq or Saudi Arabia to reach Iran. To effectively bomb Iran's nuclear facilities Israel will have to make hundreds of sorties, which will take months. Any Muslim nation will launch fighters against Israel if it over-flies Muslim air space. Iraq has no real Air Force. With the US Air Force gone, Israel could easily use Iraq as a transit corridor.

Such an Israeli attack would be met by Iran's navy closing the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy would then be forced to destroy the Iranian Navy. This would ignite a full scale war with Iran. Oil would then go to $250 a barrel and the world economy would meltdown.

So there is only one viable solution to Iran's nuke program: the CIA. Furthermore, the CIA has to convince Israel that Iran will be declawed. Israel just announced there is not an "imminent" attack on Iran, another victory for Langley.

A couple months ago Kurdish guerillas launched their biggest ever attack on the Turkish Army, killing a score of Turkish soldiers. The Kurdish attacks stopped when Turkey allowed the Free Syrian Army (FSA - good guys) to open bases in Turkey and launch attacks against Syria from these bases.

At first the FSA surgically attacked Syrian Intelligence assets. After these attacks the FSA humbly said it did not do much damage, even though it in fact did tons of damage. More recently the FSA is breaking into Syrian Army posts and snagging Sunni soldiers, who are then assimilated into the FSA (brilliant). The sudden professionalism of the FSA speaks to heavy CIA involvement.

Crippling Syria also cripples Iran and Hezbollah. This in turn gives Israel another reason not to attack Iran. By esculating one war the CIA is preventing a much larger one from occuring.

The Islamic vote in the ongoing Egyptian elections is being split between the Muslim Brotherhood and the radical Salifist parties (bad guys). All the radicals are being siphoned out of the Brotherhood and dumped into the Salifist camp. We now have to root for the Brotherhood to win and form a government just like we need to root for Islamic militias in Libya being co-opted by Qatar. As you will recall, earlier in the year I blogged that the quick rise of radical Islamic parties in Egypt was suspicious. We now see that segragating these bad guys is a good thing and paradoxically whoever "helped" the Egyptian radicals actually hurt them.

Meanwhile, the parts of the Long War controlled by the Pentagon are going poorly. So the biggest danger in the future is slashing the CIA's budget as dictated by last summer's debt deal. The biggest ally that the CIA has in DC is Joe Biden. We need to see him gain power within Team Obama and help the CIA.