The Battle for Aleppo: Assad's Syrian Army is in its third day of attacking the Salaheddine district, the key to the battle. The bad guys are throwing everything they have into the district, blackening the sky with smoke from mortars, artillery shells, missiles from jet fighters and other heavy ordnance. The rebels are absorbing this punishing fire and holding the district, against all odds. The FSA says it is gaining ground around the periphery of the battle, starting a pincer movement to engulf Assad's army as it gets sucked into this hellish firestorm.
Assad's army is tearing apart buildings in the city because of its reliance on heavy weapons. The resulting rubble is giving cover to the rebel fighters, turning the once proud city into a nightmare of urban warfare where tanks and jets are not that useful and the fighting quickly descends into hand-to-hand combat and sniper duels. This is exactly what happened at Stalingrad.
The battle wasn't supposed to be going down like this. The rebels aren't following the playbook that the media and the West laid down for them. This battle was supposed to result in a rebel massacre. War crime courts were geared up to prosecute Assad's people for the expected bloodbath.
Russia is making plans to abandon its naval base in Syria in case it is overrun by rebel fighters. This is Russia's only big overseas military base; Russia's pride and joy. The Russians are looking to build a new base elsewhere. They have approached Cuba and other countries.
Why are all the analysts so wrong about this battle? What is it that they don't understand? They answer is that they don't understand what it means to @$#%& with the CIA.
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Monday, July 30, 2012
Welcome To Stalingrad
Syrian Civil War: Moral superiority is an actual military concept. It means one side in a war is willing to take much higher casualties than the other to achieve victory. In this context the phrase does not have any philosophical meaning. The FSA rebels have moral superiority over Assad's army. The bad guys might have kill ratios of 100-1 over the good guys. And yet the good guys are (so far) winning. This is the most horrible and gruesome way to win a war.
The Battle of Aleppo has begun. Both sides are fighting over the Salaheddine district, which is now key. Assad's army said they had captured Salaheddine one day ago after a withering barrage of rockets, mortars, helicopter gunship fire, and fire from the cannons of tanks. Assad's army moved in infantry to hold the ground they thought they'd captured but rebel fighters crawled out of the ruins and repelled the bad guy foot soldiers. Moral superiority.
The German army captured 90% of Stalingrad before losing the battle. The Germans thought the scorecard for victory was how much of the city they had captured and how many Russian soldiers they had killed. The actual scorecard was the condition of the German supply lines. Every German bullet had to be transported over 1000 miles to Stalingrad. If these supply lines were not robust, Germany would and did lose.
Before the Battle of Aleppo the rebels fought hard and secured all the ground necessary for them to maintain supply lines. The rebel supply lines are impregnable. The CIA has publicly admitted that it is running these supply lines.
We don't know the condition of Assad's supply lines. But as the battle unfolds we will find out.
It is very rare for a vastly outgunned army to defeat a technologically advanced army with moral superiority. The last time this happened was about 140 years ago. It can only happen if the outgunned army has a much better and more sophisticated strategy and tactics. The military minds behind the primitive army must be way better than their opponents. Better chess players.
In Stalingrad the Russians had equal technology compared to the Germans. So this is an imperfect analogy.
The Battle of Aleppo has begun. Both sides are fighting over the Salaheddine district, which is now key. Assad's army said they had captured Salaheddine one day ago after a withering barrage of rockets, mortars, helicopter gunship fire, and fire from the cannons of tanks. Assad's army moved in infantry to hold the ground they thought they'd captured but rebel fighters crawled out of the ruins and repelled the bad guy foot soldiers. Moral superiority.
The German army captured 90% of Stalingrad before losing the battle. The Germans thought the scorecard for victory was how much of the city they had captured and how many Russian soldiers they had killed. The actual scorecard was the condition of the German supply lines. Every German bullet had to be transported over 1000 miles to Stalingrad. If these supply lines were not robust, Germany would and did lose.
Before the Battle of Aleppo the rebels fought hard and secured all the ground necessary for them to maintain supply lines. The rebel supply lines are impregnable. The CIA has publicly admitted that it is running these supply lines.
We don't know the condition of Assad's supply lines. But as the battle unfolds we will find out.
It is very rare for a vastly outgunned army to defeat a technologically advanced army with moral superiority. The last time this happened was about 140 years ago. It can only happen if the outgunned army has a much better and more sophisticated strategy and tactics. The military minds behind the primitive army must be way better than their opponents. Better chess players.
In Stalingrad the Russians had equal technology compared to the Germans. So this is an imperfect analogy.
Friday, July 27, 2012
I'm Sorry For Getting Religious On You.
Charts: The S&P 500 has been in a consolidation channel for 1 1/2 years. Today it moved up to the top of that channel (1370) right after the bell. It moved in and out of resistance at 1370 a dozen times, then punched up through the long term channel. If it trades above 1370 for four days, then the chartsists will say it has achieved a break out.
Long War: A high ranking Syrian general who defected a while ago to join the FSA is painting a very different picture of Assad's army and the looming battle of Aleppo then what I did yesterday. Sorry. General Al-Zobi says the rebels have cut off all supply lines to Assad's army and the bad guys are running out of fuel and rockets. He is hinting that the strategy the rebels are employing in Aleppo is the same that Soviet General Zhukov employed in Stalingrad to destroy Hitler's 6th Army.
Hitler was sucked into Stalingrad. It was a trap, an urban trap. It soon became a death field for the Wehrmacht. Al-Zobi is insinuating that history is repeating itself.
Soviet General Zhukov was considered to be one of the greatest military minds in all of human history. Who is the super-genius at the helm of the FSA? Reuters thinks it has an answer...
Reuters says that the Turks have created a huge "nerve center" that is organizing the FSA. This nerve center is being run (according to Reuters) by the Turks, Saudis, and Qataris. We are told the teeny-tiny Qatari intelligence agency is the brains behind this operation. The high-tech stuff that you would think could only be done by the CIA is (we are told) being done by a vague group of private outside contractors. As you will recall we were also told at the time that the Qataris were running the war in Libya. The mouse is pretending to be an elephant.
I'm not even going to waste my time picking this nonsense apart. If you've been reading this blog for any length of time, then you know exactly what I'm going say about all this happy horse-shit.
All I will say is this... I try not to get too religious when it comes to investing, but today I can't help but fall to my knees and offer this prayer of thanks to the good Lord above, "Dear Lord God Jehovah thank you making the CIA such a bunch of cunning and deceitful bastards. Keep up the good work. Amen."
Long War: A high ranking Syrian general who defected a while ago to join the FSA is painting a very different picture of Assad's army and the looming battle of Aleppo then what I did yesterday. Sorry. General Al-Zobi says the rebels have cut off all supply lines to Assad's army and the bad guys are running out of fuel and rockets. He is hinting that the strategy the rebels are employing in Aleppo is the same that Soviet General Zhukov employed in Stalingrad to destroy Hitler's 6th Army.
Hitler was sucked into Stalingrad. It was a trap, an urban trap. It soon became a death field for the Wehrmacht. Al-Zobi is insinuating that history is repeating itself.
Soviet General Zhukov was considered to be one of the greatest military minds in all of human history. Who is the super-genius at the helm of the FSA? Reuters thinks it has an answer...
Reuters says that the Turks have created a huge "nerve center" that is organizing the FSA. This nerve center is being run (according to Reuters) by the Turks, Saudis, and Qataris. We are told the teeny-tiny Qatari intelligence agency is the brains behind this operation. The high-tech stuff that you would think could only be done by the CIA is (we are told) being done by a vague group of private outside contractors. As you will recall we were also told at the time that the Qataris were running the war in Libya. The mouse is pretending to be an elephant.
I'm not even going to waste my time picking this nonsense apart. If you've been reading this blog for any length of time, then you know exactly what I'm going say about all this happy horse-shit.
All I will say is this... I try not to get too religious when it comes to investing, but today I can't help but fall to my knees and offer this prayer of thanks to the good Lord above, "Dear Lord God Jehovah thank you making the CIA such a bunch of cunning and deceitful bastards. Keep up the good work. Amen."
Thursday, July 26, 2012
The Battle Of Aleppo This Weekend
Charts: The broad index has repeatedly tested battleground support at 1333. Today we have a monster rally. This means that the key support level is rock hard and well tested. So the charts look good. The downside is volatility, which is screeching high and makes chart analysis difficult.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has cleared most rebel positions out of Damascus in what appears to be a hard fought victory for the bad guys. However the FSA maintains a toehold in the capital city. A huge battle is looming in the largest city, Aleppo. Assad is ringing the city with a wall of armor. Syrian helicopter gunships fill the sky. Assad's military assets are being stripped from all parts of the country. He is throwing everything he has into the Battle of Aleppo, which will probably start this weekend.
The rebels are doing the same thing, pouring in reinforcements, throwing everything they've got into Aleppo, pea-shooters and courage against Soviet T-72 main battle tanks. Currently the rebels control half the city. It is hard to see how they will prevail. But then it is hard to see how Assad will retake the rest of the country after giving it up to win this big battle.
Many experts think Assad doesn't want the rest of the country but is instead going to create a mini-state on the coast for his Alawite clansmen. This might actually be okay.
In Mali, the General in charge of America's Africa Command, Carter Ham, says AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) has become enormously rich and powerful. AQIM controls all of northern Mali, it has its own country, which is bigger than France. General Ham is hinting that CIA drone bases must be built around this gigantic Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda. And this is likely to happen over the next few years. General Ham is working to whip the African Union in shape to attack AQIM in Mali.
The President of the African Union is now a South African. A sleeping giant is stirring. South Africa has never taken a leadership role like this before. It will take the South African Army to dislodge AQIM from Mali. The building blocks are falling in place for this to happen.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has cleared most rebel positions out of Damascus in what appears to be a hard fought victory for the bad guys. However the FSA maintains a toehold in the capital city. A huge battle is looming in the largest city, Aleppo. Assad is ringing the city with a wall of armor. Syrian helicopter gunships fill the sky. Assad's military assets are being stripped from all parts of the country. He is throwing everything he has into the Battle of Aleppo, which will probably start this weekend.
The rebels are doing the same thing, pouring in reinforcements, throwing everything they've got into Aleppo, pea-shooters and courage against Soviet T-72 main battle tanks. Currently the rebels control half the city. It is hard to see how they will prevail. But then it is hard to see how Assad will retake the rest of the country after giving it up to win this big battle.
Many experts think Assad doesn't want the rest of the country but is instead going to create a mini-state on the coast for his Alawite clansmen. This might actually be okay.
In Mali, the General in charge of America's Africa Command, Carter Ham, says AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) has become enormously rich and powerful. AQIM controls all of northern Mali, it has its own country, which is bigger than France. General Ham is hinting that CIA drone bases must be built around this gigantic Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda. And this is likely to happen over the next few years. General Ham is working to whip the African Union in shape to attack AQIM in Mali.
The President of the African Union is now a South African. A sleeping giant is stirring. South Africa has never taken a leadership role like this before. It will take the South African Army to dislodge AQIM from Mali. The building blocks are falling in place for this to happen.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Hellfire Missiles Rain Down From The Heavens
Charts: Yesterday the broad index hit the 50-day moving average, found support and so far today that support is holding. We are balanced on a razor's edge and need desperately for 1333 to hold.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army is pulling forces from all parts of the country to reinforce his drive into the two largest cities: Aleppo and Damascus. This is a desperate measure. He is giving up everything to hold these two big cities. If he were to establish control in the two cities, then he will have a very hard time fighting outward to retake the rest of the country.
The rebels are taking advantage of Assad's strategy by seizing border crossings, trying to seal off Syria from the rest of the world, preventing Assad from getting weapons and support from abroad.
Syrian prisons have been infiltrated by good guys and jail breaks are occurring. This means Assad's army has to stop fighting the rebels to restore order in these prisons. This is the work of an advanced intelligence agency.
In Yemen, the CIA is stretched thin and AQAP knows it. In June AQAP was totally routed from the little Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda it had carved out in southern Yemen. AQAP is starting a campaign to reconquer the villages it had been booted out of. But the first bad guy attack was repelled by well-armed and well-trained good guy local militia. So Langley has done some good advanced planning and has forces in place to deal with an expected AQAP push back.
In the Pak Tribal Lands, jihadist gunmen attacked a compound that a top Pakistan Taliban commander had been using. The gunmen killed the Taliban chieftian. Okay, it is time for everybody to admit that the CIA has its own jihadist forces. The Pakistan government sure seems to think so. They are now on their best behavior, using the Pak Air Force once again to strike bad guy positions. NATO supply routes are open and the Pak government is keeping its pie-hole shut about CIA drone strikes.
Speaking of which... The CIA drone campaign is once again roaring ahead full throttle, with Hellfire missiles raining down from the heavens, chewing up bad guy encampments and filling the air with the terrifying sounds and smells of American vengeance.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army is pulling forces from all parts of the country to reinforce his drive into the two largest cities: Aleppo and Damascus. This is a desperate measure. He is giving up everything to hold these two big cities. If he were to establish control in the two cities, then he will have a very hard time fighting outward to retake the rest of the country.
The rebels are taking advantage of Assad's strategy by seizing border crossings, trying to seal off Syria from the rest of the world, preventing Assad from getting weapons and support from abroad.
Syrian prisons have been infiltrated by good guys and jail breaks are occurring. This means Assad's army has to stop fighting the rebels to restore order in these prisons. This is the work of an advanced intelligence agency.
In Yemen, the CIA is stretched thin and AQAP knows it. In June AQAP was totally routed from the little Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda it had carved out in southern Yemen. AQAP is starting a campaign to reconquer the villages it had been booted out of. But the first bad guy attack was repelled by well-armed and well-trained good guy local militia. So Langley has done some good advanced planning and has forces in place to deal with an expected AQAP push back.
In the Pak Tribal Lands, jihadist gunmen attacked a compound that a top Pakistan Taliban commander had been using. The gunmen killed the Taliban chieftian. Okay, it is time for everybody to admit that the CIA has its own jihadist forces. The Pakistan government sure seems to think so. They are now on their best behavior, using the Pak Air Force once again to strike bad guy positions. NATO supply routes are open and the Pak government is keeping its pie-hole shut about CIA drone strikes.
Speaking of which... The CIA drone campaign is once again roaring ahead full throttle, with Hellfire missiles raining down from the heavens, chewing up bad guy encampments and filling the air with the terrifying sounds and smells of American vengeance.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The CIA Director is a Screw-Up. Not.
Charts: At midday on July 24 the S&P 500 is trading just under 1333 which is both the 50-day moving average and the final Fibonacci retracement level in the series. This is also the bottom of the recent trading channel and a battleground support level. A convincing break below 1333 means the charts are saying a serious correction has begun. I have my puke bucket only inches from my desk and it seems to be calling to me: "Puke, Dave, go ahead, let it out!"
Fundamentals: Yesterday I said Spain will default. But the media is saying Spain will get bailed out like Greece and not default. Newsflash: Greek debt gave investors a 75% haircut, that's called defaulting.
Long War: In their wisdom the international NGOs in Afghanistan gave the Taliban a free pass on poisoning little girls in girls-only-schools. The Taliban of course has infiltrated Afghan security forces. Before the Taliban moles would have to kill themselves to take out honest security personnel; go out in a blaze of fire. Now they are using poison and living to fight another day. Can you see why we need to get the western liberal do-gooders out of Afghanistan?
In Syria, for the first time Assad's Air Force is strafing rebel positions with fighter jets. So FSA rebels armed with AK-47 and itty-bitty grenade launchers are being attacked by main battle tanks, heavy artillery, fighter-bombers, and attack helicopters. Not surprisingly, the good guys are being knocked back.
What possible advantage do the good guys have? What force is on their side against this overwhelming firepower? Consider the following two news items...
Russia is warning Assad not to use chemical weapons. Somebody or something is pressuring the holy crap out of Russia. Who could it be?
The Wall Street Journal ran an article yesterday asserting that the CIA is a little bit more pregnant in the Syrian Civil War than previously admitted, but only by a tiny amount. The article used the word "limited" several times. The CIA is indeed pregnant but only in the most limited manner possible. Then the article highlighted the blunders the CIA supposedly has made in its limited pregnancy. Shipments of arms have gotten through. Langley is not really doing that great of a job, yada yada yada. This is called disinformation.
Today the Wall Street Urinal is running an article asserting that David Petraeus' number one concern is getting a new gym for the spooks at Langley. What a srew-up he must be. Not.
This is what the out-gunned FSA rebels have on their side, the raw genius of the greatest military mind in the world.
Fundamentals: Yesterday I said Spain will default. But the media is saying Spain will get bailed out like Greece and not default. Newsflash: Greek debt gave investors a 75% haircut, that's called defaulting.
Long War: In their wisdom the international NGOs in Afghanistan gave the Taliban a free pass on poisoning little girls in girls-only-schools. The Taliban of course has infiltrated Afghan security forces. Before the Taliban moles would have to kill themselves to take out honest security personnel; go out in a blaze of fire. Now they are using poison and living to fight another day. Can you see why we need to get the western liberal do-gooders out of Afghanistan?
In Syria, for the first time Assad's Air Force is strafing rebel positions with fighter jets. So FSA rebels armed with AK-47 and itty-bitty grenade launchers are being attacked by main battle tanks, heavy artillery, fighter-bombers, and attack helicopters. Not surprisingly, the good guys are being knocked back.
What possible advantage do the good guys have? What force is on their side against this overwhelming firepower? Consider the following two news items...
Russia is warning Assad not to use chemical weapons. Somebody or something is pressuring the holy crap out of Russia. Who could it be?
The Wall Street Journal ran an article yesterday asserting that the CIA is a little bit more pregnant in the Syrian Civil War than previously admitted, but only by a tiny amount. The article used the word "limited" several times. The CIA is indeed pregnant but only in the most limited manner possible. Then the article highlighted the blunders the CIA supposedly has made in its limited pregnancy. Shipments of arms have gotten through. Langley is not really doing that great of a job, yada yada yada. This is called disinformation.
Today the Wall Street Urinal is running an article asserting that David Petraeus' number one concern is getting a new gym for the spooks at Langley. What a srew-up he must be. Not.
This is what the out-gunned FSA rebels have on their side, the raw genius of the greatest military mind in the world.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Ramadan Violence is Not Good
Fundamentals: Spain is going to need a bail out from the EU and ECB or it is likely to default. Greece has exhausted its bail out funding and it too will probably default on existing debt. Much of Greece's debt has been written down, but it hasn't been written down to zero, so it can obviously still default. The ECB could just print Euros out of thin air and vaporize all this bad debt. This would only work if southern European countries actually implemented free market reforms, giving them the ability to start growing again. But they refuse to make these reforms. So huge injections of ECB funds would just flow into foolish make work projects and wealth transfer schemes. So the fundies look really bad.
Long War: Al-Qaeda in Iraq killed over 100 people today, including dozens of Iraqi soldiers. A while ago the CIA told us quite openly it was pulling all assets out of Iraq. I speculated that the CIA was pouring its Iraqi resources into Syria and wanted to leave a juicy target behind in Iraq for the bad guys to play with, preventing them from getting too heavily involved in the Syrian Civil War. Looks like I was right. The CIA is stretched thin. It can't be everywhere at once and is therefore doing the right thing. The Long War is a nasty business and there are no wonderful Hollywood answers to every problem.
The Muslim majority Mombasa region on Kenya's coast is being infiltrated and taken over by Al-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia. A small guerrilla war is brewing there that will someday explode into a big war. Remember my long term prediction, that jihadist wars will spread down either coast of Africa, forming a gigantic pincer movement that ultimately will be directed at South Africa? Facts on the ground are bearing this prediction out.
At some point the sleeping giant will be awakened. At some point South Africa will rise up and send divisions of Christian soldiers north. The Long War will become more religious and much more bloody when that happens. Scary.
Syria is making statements about when and how it will use chemical weapons. The statements are disinformation of course. The take-away here is that chemical weapons will soon enter the battlefield. Not good.
In Saudi Arabia, Sunni/Shiite violence is increasing on a street level. Violence across the Muslim world is increasing as the Holy month of Ramadan gets underway. It is not good that Ramadan is causing violence to go up rather than the opposite.
Time to analyze the analyst.... Analysts that are good at making forecasts usually have one big weakness: they always get the timing wrong. They think future events they are predicting will happen either too quickly or too slowly. The Long War is moving more quickly than I thought it would.
Long War: Al-Qaeda in Iraq killed over 100 people today, including dozens of Iraqi soldiers. A while ago the CIA told us quite openly it was pulling all assets out of Iraq. I speculated that the CIA was pouring its Iraqi resources into Syria and wanted to leave a juicy target behind in Iraq for the bad guys to play with, preventing them from getting too heavily involved in the Syrian Civil War. Looks like I was right. The CIA is stretched thin. It can't be everywhere at once and is therefore doing the right thing. The Long War is a nasty business and there are no wonderful Hollywood answers to every problem.
The Muslim majority Mombasa region on Kenya's coast is being infiltrated and taken over by Al-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia. A small guerrilla war is brewing there that will someday explode into a big war. Remember my long term prediction, that jihadist wars will spread down either coast of Africa, forming a gigantic pincer movement that ultimately will be directed at South Africa? Facts on the ground are bearing this prediction out.
At some point the sleeping giant will be awakened. At some point South Africa will rise up and send divisions of Christian soldiers north. The Long War will become more religious and much more bloody when that happens. Scary.
Syria is making statements about when and how it will use chemical weapons. The statements are disinformation of course. The take-away here is that chemical weapons will soon enter the battlefield. Not good.
In Saudi Arabia, Sunni/Shiite violence is increasing on a street level. Violence across the Muslim world is increasing as the Holy month of Ramadan gets underway. It is not good that Ramadan is causing violence to go up rather than the opposite.
Time to analyze the analyst.... Analysts that are good at making forecasts usually have one big weakness: they always get the timing wrong. They think future events they are predicting will happen either too quickly or too slowly. The Long War is moving more quickly than I thought it would.
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Evil Fears These 3 Letters: C... I... A...
Syria: The FSA offensive into Damascus saw several thousand rebel fighters infiltrate key sections of the city before the battle had begun. Additionally, a fifth column of anti-Assad civilians living in Damascus had been trained and prepped before the battle. When the main rebel force swept into the urban battlefield the pre-positioned fighters launched a diversionary attack and the fifth column ignited gigantic piles of tires on street corners; all of this occurred some distance from the actual point of attack. This caused Assad's army to defend the wrong locations and get attacked from behind. Furthermore, the assassination of Assad's top military leaders occurred as the battle was being joined. This left Assad's army without leadership at a key moment.
The tactical planning was incredible, the timing and execution was incredibly professional. Compound this with the fact that the rebel army is beating back tanks and helicopter gunships with nothing more than small arms.
You want more evidence that the CIA is running the show? The bomb that killed Assad's top military commanders was clearly set in place by a high level Assad insider and it was detonated remotely with a sophisticated wireless device. So somebody was able to offer this insider a life outside Syria as payment for turning traitor, something the FSA cannot do.
There is a reason why the CIA is only giving the rebels light weapons, namely the rebel army is infiltrated with Al-Qaeda cells and we don't want these bad guys to have sophisticated weapons. As brilliant as Petraeus is, Assad is getting ready to use chemical weapons and it is about to get really hairy in Syria.
The Pak Tribal Lands: A suicide bomber blew up a compound used by a small Taliban militia in the Orakzai tribal region, killing 9 jihadists and wounding 20 more. A jihadist killed a bunch of jihadists. This is further evidence that the CIA has jihadist forces of its own. There is an old saying: "To catch a thief, set a thief."
Jihad sounds like a bad word, doesn't it? The literal English translation is crusade. The two words have identical meanings. They both mean holy war. The CIA has native Islamic forces willing to kill Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the name of Allah, in the name of God. These fighters believe they are clawing back their religion from the clutches of evil, from Satan. If you are an atheist we'll go with the word "evil." Fine, here is the question then: How evil is the Taliban? Please read on...
Afghanistan: The number of girls dying in girl-only-schools has soared this year, hitting all time records. Hundreds of girl students have died from poisoned wells. The handful of foreign NGOs charged with investigating all these deaths have written a report saying the Taliban is not to blame and the deaths are the result of unspecified natural pathogens. The foreign workers for the NGOs were not killed or targeted by the Taliban because of their report, disgusting. They will be leaving when NATO pulls out in 2014 and don't want to stick their necks out. Cowards.
The Taliban is getting ready for the day when NATO pulls out. It wants to send a message to the average citizens of Afghanistan: a new reign of terror is about to begin and you had better bow your heads in submission to us or we will chop them off.
I believe that by then there will be a new breed of jihadist in Afghanistan and the old jihadists will have their hands full. In the first couple years of the Afghan war the Northern Alliance (native war lords) and the CIA totally routed the Taliban. The war went sideways when anti-war lord programs were put in place by the State Department (under Bush) and the Pentagon took over from the CIA. This was a huge mistake. But that mistake will be reversed in 2014 and their will be a new sheriff in town. 2014 is a long ways away and this year's fighting season is not going that great.
The tactical planning was incredible, the timing and execution was incredibly professional. Compound this with the fact that the rebel army is beating back tanks and helicopter gunships with nothing more than small arms.
You want more evidence that the CIA is running the show? The bomb that killed Assad's top military commanders was clearly set in place by a high level Assad insider and it was detonated remotely with a sophisticated wireless device. So somebody was able to offer this insider a life outside Syria as payment for turning traitor, something the FSA cannot do.
There is a reason why the CIA is only giving the rebels light weapons, namely the rebel army is infiltrated with Al-Qaeda cells and we don't want these bad guys to have sophisticated weapons. As brilliant as Petraeus is, Assad is getting ready to use chemical weapons and it is about to get really hairy in Syria.
The Pak Tribal Lands: A suicide bomber blew up a compound used by a small Taliban militia in the Orakzai tribal region, killing 9 jihadists and wounding 20 more. A jihadist killed a bunch of jihadists. This is further evidence that the CIA has jihadist forces of its own. There is an old saying: "To catch a thief, set a thief."
Jihad sounds like a bad word, doesn't it? The literal English translation is crusade. The two words have identical meanings. They both mean holy war. The CIA has native Islamic forces willing to kill Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the name of Allah, in the name of God. These fighters believe they are clawing back their religion from the clutches of evil, from Satan. If you are an atheist we'll go with the word "evil." Fine, here is the question then: How evil is the Taliban? Please read on...
Afghanistan: The number of girls dying in girl-only-schools has soared this year, hitting all time records. Hundreds of girl students have died from poisoned wells. The handful of foreign NGOs charged with investigating all these deaths have written a report saying the Taliban is not to blame and the deaths are the result of unspecified natural pathogens. The foreign workers for the NGOs were not killed or targeted by the Taliban because of their report, disgusting. They will be leaving when NATO pulls out in 2014 and don't want to stick their necks out. Cowards.
The Taliban is getting ready for the day when NATO pulls out. It wants to send a message to the average citizens of Afghanistan: a new reign of terror is about to begin and you had better bow your heads in submission to us or we will chop them off.
I believe that by then there will be a new breed of jihadist in Afghanistan and the old jihadists will have their hands full. In the first couple years of the Afghan war the Northern Alliance (native war lords) and the CIA totally routed the Taliban. The war went sideways when anti-war lord programs were put in place by the State Department (under Bush) and the Pentagon took over from the CIA. This was a huge mistake. But that mistake will be reversed in 2014 and their will be a new sheriff in town. 2014 is a long ways away and this year's fighting season is not going that great.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Will Dave Be Visited by Men In Black?
Long War: The CIA has just assassinated the head of Assad's Syrian Intelligence. But wait a minute, the media is saying the rebel FSA is doing all these assassinations. In other words, the FSA has suddenly become better than Mossad or any other world class intelligence agency. Remember my analogy about a ten-year old Girl Scout killing 20 Hell's Angels with a pocket knife? (If not, see blog below this one). Okay, now we are to believe the Girl Scout's next move was to jump on her tricycle, peddle to the Hell's Angel headquarters and kill half of its top leadership. That is one bad ass Girl Scout!
The FSA rebel army continues to shred Assad's army. I've said this offensive is being led by Navy SEALs and I am being sloppy here. Sorry. The CIA has its own paramilitary soldiers. They are all former US Special Forces soldiers. But now they work for Langley, not the US Navy. A technicality.
For the first time Russia is hinting that Assad must step down. A while ago Russia agreed to stop selling weapons to Assad. At the time I said the CIA was pressuring Russia in some manner. I went on to say I didn't know how but a couple years ago there seemed to be CIA pressure on China in the form of Langley controlled jihadist terror strikes. I guess I shouldn't have been circumspect with that blog by hinting that I think Langley has its own jihadist forces. For one thing I don't want to have a "Tom Clancy Moment" where I get a knock on the door. Anyway, since I made that hint about potential CIA controlled terror strikes in Russia, that very event has occurred. In the Tararstan region there has been a huge spike in jihadist activity and nobody knows why. This area had been very peaceful until recently. Russia usually only has to deal with Islamic bad guys in the North Caucasus region.
There is no fact checker to turn to when you are analyzing and predicting CIA activity. Langley is the world's greatest liar and it is very difficult to see through the smoke and mirrors. The only report card possible for someone like me is to make predicitions about what will happen if a given theory is true and then wait to see if these predicitions come through. My report card has an "A" on it next to a shiny gold star. I'm leaving my house now before the men in black suits show up.
The FSA rebel army continues to shred Assad's army. I've said this offensive is being led by Navy SEALs and I am being sloppy here. Sorry. The CIA has its own paramilitary soldiers. They are all former US Special Forces soldiers. But now they work for Langley, not the US Navy. A technicality.
For the first time Russia is hinting that Assad must step down. A while ago Russia agreed to stop selling weapons to Assad. At the time I said the CIA was pressuring Russia in some manner. I went on to say I didn't know how but a couple years ago there seemed to be CIA pressure on China in the form of Langley controlled jihadist terror strikes. I guess I shouldn't have been circumspect with that blog by hinting that I think Langley has its own jihadist forces. For one thing I don't want to have a "Tom Clancy Moment" where I get a knock on the door. Anyway, since I made that hint about potential CIA controlled terror strikes in Russia, that very event has occurred. In the Tararstan region there has been a huge spike in jihadist activity and nobody knows why. This area had been very peaceful until recently. Russia usually only has to deal with Islamic bad guys in the North Caucasus region.
There is no fact checker to turn to when you are analyzing and predicting CIA activity. Langley is the world's greatest liar and it is very difficult to see through the smoke and mirrors. The only report card possible for someone like me is to make predicitions about what will happen if a given theory is true and then wait to see if these predicitions come through. My report card has an "A" on it next to a shiny gold star. I'm leaving my house now before the men in black suits show up.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Will Iran Stick Its Weenie In The Meat Grinder?
Charts: Over the past year and a half the broad index has been in a long term consolidation channel of 1320-1370. It is now at the upper end of that channel. There had been a short term upward sloping trading channel of 1334-1364. The index is now above that short term channel. If it stays above 1370 for 4 days in a row, then the charts are saying there has been a break out. This rosy view would be easier to swallow if volatility stays low. High volatility makes a mockery of chart analysis.
Long War: Off the Coast of Iran: The US Navy is adding a third aircraft carrier battle group to the mighty Persian Gulf flotilla. There are two battle groups there now. These three battle groups are augmented by fleets from 19 allied navies. This gigantic armada is ready to begin a joint naval exercise designed to train it to work as a single unit to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz, when and if Iran sticks its weenie in the meat grinder.
The Pentagon has almost finished building an anti-ballistic missile shield in the Gulf designed to blow away Iranian missiles. This will shield the Persian Gulf flotilla and allow it to rain holy hell on the bad guys.
The UAE has just finished a $4 billion overland oil pipeline that is now pumping Mideast oil that would have had to have been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but now cannot be touched by Iran, which makes a naval engagement in the Gulf much easier for the good guys.
A couple days ago a refueling ship inside one of the Persian Gulf battle groups fired on an Indian fishing boat that looked a little bit like an Iranian attack speedboat if you squinted just right. The fishing boat had nothing to do with Iran, but it was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Navy did not apologize, instead it said every vessel in the Gulf had better watch its ass because the good guys are not dicking around with Iran any more. This means that the rules of engagement for the Navy have been loosened up to allow for an all-out war.
The full weight of oil sanctions are now hitting Iran. Its economy will soon get so bad that revolution against the regime is possible. This means that as suicidal as it may seem, Iran may attack the mighty armada off its coast. The mouse may attack the lion. But this isn't Aesop's Fables. The mouse will get annihilated.
In Syria: The CIA just assassinated Assad's #1 Defense Minister and his #2 Deputy Defense Minister, dealing a savage blow to the tin pot dictator.
The FSA (good guys) says it is conquering Damascus, the seat of power. The FSA is right. They are winning. They are taking apart Assad's army as if it were an old clock. But its not an old clock; it used to be the most professional army in the Arab world. The media tells us that the FSA is winning because rag tag FSA fighters are taking out Assad's heavy armor with grenade launchers. That's like saying a ten-year-old Girl Scout armed with only a pocket knife has just walked into a biker bar filled with 20 Hell's Angels armed with Uzis. The little girl then start a fight with the bikers. Within minutes she has killed all 20 Hell's Angels. She calmly wipes off the blood, puts her little knife back in her pocket, and sells cookies to the bar patrons that haven't been killed. In the real world that is not possible. In the real world the Girl Scout is a Navy SEAL.
Long War: Off the Coast of Iran: The US Navy is adding a third aircraft carrier battle group to the mighty Persian Gulf flotilla. There are two battle groups there now. These three battle groups are augmented by fleets from 19 allied navies. This gigantic armada is ready to begin a joint naval exercise designed to train it to work as a single unit to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz, when and if Iran sticks its weenie in the meat grinder.
The Pentagon has almost finished building an anti-ballistic missile shield in the Gulf designed to blow away Iranian missiles. This will shield the Persian Gulf flotilla and allow it to rain holy hell on the bad guys.
The UAE has just finished a $4 billion overland oil pipeline that is now pumping Mideast oil that would have had to have been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but now cannot be touched by Iran, which makes a naval engagement in the Gulf much easier for the good guys.
A couple days ago a refueling ship inside one of the Persian Gulf battle groups fired on an Indian fishing boat that looked a little bit like an Iranian attack speedboat if you squinted just right. The fishing boat had nothing to do with Iran, but it was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Navy did not apologize, instead it said every vessel in the Gulf had better watch its ass because the good guys are not dicking around with Iran any more. This means that the rules of engagement for the Navy have been loosened up to allow for an all-out war.
The full weight of oil sanctions are now hitting Iran. Its economy will soon get so bad that revolution against the regime is possible. This means that as suicidal as it may seem, Iran may attack the mighty armada off its coast. The mouse may attack the lion. But this isn't Aesop's Fables. The mouse will get annihilated.
In Syria: The CIA just assassinated Assad's #1 Defense Minister and his #2 Deputy Defense Minister, dealing a savage blow to the tin pot dictator.
The FSA (good guys) says it is conquering Damascus, the seat of power. The FSA is right. They are winning. They are taking apart Assad's army as if it were an old clock. But its not an old clock; it used to be the most professional army in the Arab world. The media tells us that the FSA is winning because rag tag FSA fighters are taking out Assad's heavy armor with grenade launchers. That's like saying a ten-year-old Girl Scout armed with only a pocket knife has just walked into a biker bar filled with 20 Hell's Angels armed with Uzis. The little girl then start a fight with the bikers. Within minutes she has killed all 20 Hell's Angels. She calmly wipes off the blood, puts her little knife back in her pocket, and sells cookies to the bar patrons that haven't been killed. In the real world that is not possible. In the real world the Girl Scout is a Navy SEAL.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Navy SEALs Kick Nine Yards of Ass
Fundamentals: It is possible that the only realistic engine for global economic growth is China. Therefore we have to dig deeper into the recent GDP data out of China, even though we don't want to. The new methodology eliminates one layer of corrupt government officials, but leaves one layer in place. That makes you think it is about 50% more accurate than the old method.
Private economists have been aware of the kinkiness of Chinese data for years and have come up with their own formulas and methodologies. The best so far is measuring electricity output. This data is not filtered through the government at all and comes to us straight from utilities and consumers like state owned factories. State owned Chinese companies that float shares on the stock market are by and large pretty honest. So here we have good solid data. The most recent Chinese electricity figures show production has been flat quarter on quarter. The GDP data that everybody got so excited about showed an increase well over 7%, not flat. This is very scary.
Long War: In Syria: Independent UN examiners and better media scrutiny than before tells us that the so-called massacre at Tremseh was a simple battle with both sides taking hits, not an atrocity, not a genocide, not a massacre. I said exactly that at the time in this blog the other day. The CIA is manipulating the media in a fantastic manner. Totally awesome.
The rebel FSA army (good guys) is tearing apart Assad Syrian Army (bad guys). The fighting is pushing into the capital city. Assad's army is getting knocked back. This is the most savage fighting yet in the war. The Navy SEALs are kicking nine yards of ass.
Assad has taken all his chemical weapons out of storage and is getting ready to use them. He wants to carve out a separate little country on the coast, where his Alawite clansmen can create a new home and survive the massacre that the Sunni majority will mete out to his people otherwise. In other words, Assad knows he is destined to lose this war and wants to salvage something out of it. That something is the survival of his people. Assad knows what he is up against: the full might of the new Petraeues CIA, a terrifying and implacable foe.
Private economists have been aware of the kinkiness of Chinese data for years and have come up with their own formulas and methodologies. The best so far is measuring electricity output. This data is not filtered through the government at all and comes to us straight from utilities and consumers like state owned factories. State owned Chinese companies that float shares on the stock market are by and large pretty honest. So here we have good solid data. The most recent Chinese electricity figures show production has been flat quarter on quarter. The GDP data that everybody got so excited about showed an increase well over 7%, not flat. This is very scary.
Long War: In Syria: Independent UN examiners and better media scrutiny than before tells us that the so-called massacre at Tremseh was a simple battle with both sides taking hits, not an atrocity, not a genocide, not a massacre. I said exactly that at the time in this blog the other day. The CIA is manipulating the media in a fantastic manner. Totally awesome.
The rebel FSA army (good guys) is tearing apart Assad Syrian Army (bad guys). The fighting is pushing into the capital city. Assad's army is getting knocked back. This is the most savage fighting yet in the war. The Navy SEALs are kicking nine yards of ass.
Assad has taken all his chemical weapons out of storage and is getting ready to use them. He wants to carve out a separate little country on the coast, where his Alawite clansmen can create a new home and survive the massacre that the Sunni majority will mete out to his people otherwise. In other words, Assad knows he is destined to lose this war and wants to salvage something out of it. That something is the survival of his people. Assad knows what he is up against: the full might of the new Petraeues CIA, a terrifying and implacable foe.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Americans Are Warlike, If Carefully Manipulated
Charts: The upward sloping wedge pattern for the broad index has widened and is now an upward sloping trading channel. This is a big improvement because wedge patterns have not worked well in this market. Friday saw a big rally, which repaired some really bad chart patterns, at least for now. For instance, one more big down day would have caused a Death Cross to form in the NYSE composite. Death Crosses result in bear markets 50% of the time. The overall market finished the week flat. Volatility is sky high and has been for almost two years. Up till now extreme volatility has given us sideways action. The flat finish for the week mirrors the flat finish for all of 2011. It seems like we're going somewhere but we're really running in place.
Fundamentals: The reason for the big up day is China's GDP data came in as expected. Traders were afraid it would come in way worse because China is using a new methodology to calculate GDP. The old methodology was super kinky and corrupt. The new one is mildly kinky and corrupt. In China privately owned and state owned companies report economic data to government bureaucrats, who then massage the data to make themselves look better, i.e. they inflate GDP growth and dial back inflation. The new methodology eliminates one layer of crooked bureaucrats. The data still sucks, but not as bad as before.
Long War: Yesterday's Wall Street Journal ran an article titled "Unleash The CIA in Syria." It was written by a retired CIA case officer who still has lots of connections to Langley. He said that the CIA is only a little bit pregnant as far as Syria is concerned and it isn't really that involved in the war. He recommends that the CIA ramp it up. This is great propaganda. It is heartening to see that the CIA is lying to us in such an effective manner. In reality the CIA is full throttle in Syria.
CIA media manipulation is getting better and better. The air waves are full of the latest Syrian attack against a rebel held village. Except it isn't being called an attack by the media but a massacre, genocide, atrocity. All good stuff. Remember, Americans are a warlike people. They just need to be carefully whipped up into a frenzy.
Some aggressive Reuters reporters cornered a couple Syrian rebel military commanders and badgered them about the source of weaponry that the FSA is getting. It turns out that the FSA is getting a surprising amount of firepower from South Africa. Do you remember my last blog? Where I said in the future the CIA would get South Africa involved in the Long War? The future is now. Some weapons are coming from South Africa, but most are coming from former Soviet Bloc countries. Obvious CIA fingerprints. Also, old but high quality sniper rifles are coming from Belgium. More fingerprints, not only CIA but Navy SEAL, because who is training the rebels in sniper techniques except our good friends the frogmen?
Fundamentals: The reason for the big up day is China's GDP data came in as expected. Traders were afraid it would come in way worse because China is using a new methodology to calculate GDP. The old methodology was super kinky and corrupt. The new one is mildly kinky and corrupt. In China privately owned and state owned companies report economic data to government bureaucrats, who then massage the data to make themselves look better, i.e. they inflate GDP growth and dial back inflation. The new methodology eliminates one layer of crooked bureaucrats. The data still sucks, but not as bad as before.
Long War: Yesterday's Wall Street Journal ran an article titled "Unleash The CIA in Syria." It was written by a retired CIA case officer who still has lots of connections to Langley. He said that the CIA is only a little bit pregnant as far as Syria is concerned and it isn't really that involved in the war. He recommends that the CIA ramp it up. This is great propaganda. It is heartening to see that the CIA is lying to us in such an effective manner. In reality the CIA is full throttle in Syria.
CIA media manipulation is getting better and better. The air waves are full of the latest Syrian attack against a rebel held village. Except it isn't being called an attack by the media but a massacre, genocide, atrocity. All good stuff. Remember, Americans are a warlike people. They just need to be carefully whipped up into a frenzy.
Some aggressive Reuters reporters cornered a couple Syrian rebel military commanders and badgered them about the source of weaponry that the FSA is getting. It turns out that the FSA is getting a surprising amount of firepower from South Africa. Do you remember my last blog? Where I said in the future the CIA would get South Africa involved in the Long War? The future is now. Some weapons are coming from South Africa, but most are coming from former Soviet Bloc countries. Obvious CIA fingerprints. Also, old but high quality sniper rifles are coming from Belgium. More fingerprints, not only CIA but Navy SEAL, because who is training the rebels in sniper techniques except our good friends the frogmen?
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Good Things Happen In The Dark
Charts: I am writing this within a few minutes of the opening bell July 12, so we'll see how the market finishes. At the open key technical support at 1333 was shattered. But the next support level of 1328 held. I eyed my puke bucket but didn't actually vommit, then I pushed away from my screen.
Long War: All the "Arab Spring" elections saw Muslim Brotherhood Islamist candidates winning big time and pro-American secular parties losing. Except in one case: Libya. In Libya, the Muslim Brotherhood was slaughtered in the election last weekend. Rebel military leader Mahmond Jibril will be the next PM of Libya.
Let's backtrack and talk about CIA involvement in the Libya War. Besides Western commandos (Navy SEALs and Green Berets) with phony British accents there is reason to believe that many of the air strikes attributed to NATO war planes actually came from CIA drones. At the time this blog dug into evidence supporting this claim and you can scroll down and reread those old blogs if you want; or just trust me that this was the case. Furthermore, oil production came back in Libya ten times faster than petro analysts expected, further evidence to support my assertion. So there was massive CIA involvement in the Libya War.
Military commander Jibril would have then and still does have massive CIA connections. Now look at the election. Even in the towns and villages with overwhelming jihadist presence, the bad guys still lost.
Yet there is no talk of vote rigging or fraud. Somebody is doing a @#$ good job of keeping the bad guys from running Libya.
There has been almost no Pentagon presence in Libya. Just the spooks at Langley.
Now look at Afghanistan. Eight American soldiers were killed in the last few days there. It's pretty screwed up. Yes, I am sounding like a broken record when I say over and over that the only the CIA can win the Long War, not the Pentagon. But this blog is not supposed to be interesting or entertaining.
In 2014 all NATO troops leave Afghanistan. This will be a good thing, the opposite of what most people believe.
Long War: All the "Arab Spring" elections saw Muslim Brotherhood Islamist candidates winning big time and pro-American secular parties losing. Except in one case: Libya. In Libya, the Muslim Brotherhood was slaughtered in the election last weekend. Rebel military leader Mahmond Jibril will be the next PM of Libya.
Let's backtrack and talk about CIA involvement in the Libya War. Besides Western commandos (Navy SEALs and Green Berets) with phony British accents there is reason to believe that many of the air strikes attributed to NATO war planes actually came from CIA drones. At the time this blog dug into evidence supporting this claim and you can scroll down and reread those old blogs if you want; or just trust me that this was the case. Furthermore, oil production came back in Libya ten times faster than petro analysts expected, further evidence to support my assertion. So there was massive CIA involvement in the Libya War.
Military commander Jibril would have then and still does have massive CIA connections. Now look at the election. Even in the towns and villages with overwhelming jihadist presence, the bad guys still lost.
Yet there is no talk of vote rigging or fraud. Somebody is doing a @#$ good job of keeping the bad guys from running Libya.
There has been almost no Pentagon presence in Libya. Just the spooks at Langley.
Now look at Afghanistan. Eight American soldiers were killed in the last few days there. It's pretty screwed up. Yes, I am sounding like a broken record when I say over and over that the only the CIA can win the Long War, not the Pentagon. But this blog is not supposed to be interesting or entertaining.
In 2014 all NATO troops leave Afghanistan. This will be a good thing, the opposite of what most people believe.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Dave's 100-year Long Range LW Forecast
Charts: The S&P 500 plunged downward today, hit 1333, and popped back up to finish flat. 1333 is the final Fibonacci retracement level in the series, a level the market has been struggling with for almost two years. 1333 is the bottom of the trading channel the market has been in for the past couple months. 1333 is also very close to the 50-day moving average. It is impossible to overstate how important it is for the market to find support at 1333. I don't know about you, but I am on my knees praying to the stock market Gods that 1333 holds.
On June 29 the market experienced a follow through day that turned a rally attempt into a technical rally. That was the day that the EU said it will bail out Spanish banks without making the Spanish government liable for these loans.
Fundamentals: EU ministers are squabbling like children about whether the Spanish government is liable for Spanish bank bail outs, even though they seemingly made up their minds that Spain's government is not liable. The fact that the EU can't make up its mind, that it can't shoot straight, puts an icy feeling into my bowels and makes me want to vomit. Luckily I have a puke bucket near my desk, so its all good.
Dave's Long Range LW forecast: A year and a half ago I made my last long range forecast. Back then I said the CIA would build a string of drone bases stretching from the Mideast into North Africa and into the deep Sahara. This is now actually happening. Investing is no place for false modesty. Even though I am normally a modest person, I am forced to admit that I have mad skills at long range geopolitical forecasting. I've got the skills. I've got the tools. And I am putting them to use. Here goes...
For the sake of simplicity let's say the Long War started right after 9/11. In the early years there were only two LW campaigns (or LW wars): Iraq and Afghanistan. Since Iraq has heated up enough to be called a LW campaign once again there are currently 7 LW campaigns: Afghanistan, Pak Tribal Lands, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Mali. There is a clear trend of more wars and they are moving down the African continent. Nigeria is on the verge of tipping into a jihadist guerrilla war, Kenya is heating up, and Sudan is always near a boil.
So two big jihadist pincer movements are creeping down either side of the African continent, pointing at South Africa, the strongest country in Africa by far. South Africa is militantly Christian. The bad guys need the Long War to become a Muslim vs Christian conflict to really light the world on fire. In time they will succeed, unless the CIA really has its shit together. But Petraeus will probably be followed by a weaker Director, so it won't have its shit together. When this weak Director takes over, the wars in Africa will explode. There will be blow back up the continent and Iran will catch fire. When all this happens we will see much bigger wars, the size of Vietnam. By then there will be a third CIA Director and he will be as good as the current one. If the CIA is left alone then countries like South Africa, Ethopia, and Turkey will do most of the fighting. The good guys will win. It will take a few decades to mop up the aftermath. The whole process will take about 100 years.
On June 29 the market experienced a follow through day that turned a rally attempt into a technical rally. That was the day that the EU said it will bail out Spanish banks without making the Spanish government liable for these loans.
Fundamentals: EU ministers are squabbling like children about whether the Spanish government is liable for Spanish bank bail outs, even though they seemingly made up their minds that Spain's government is not liable. The fact that the EU can't make up its mind, that it can't shoot straight, puts an icy feeling into my bowels and makes me want to vomit. Luckily I have a puke bucket near my desk, so its all good.
Dave's Long Range LW forecast: A year and a half ago I made my last long range forecast. Back then I said the CIA would build a string of drone bases stretching from the Mideast into North Africa and into the deep Sahara. This is now actually happening. Investing is no place for false modesty. Even though I am normally a modest person, I am forced to admit that I have mad skills at long range geopolitical forecasting. I've got the skills. I've got the tools. And I am putting them to use. Here goes...
For the sake of simplicity let's say the Long War started right after 9/11. In the early years there were only two LW campaigns (or LW wars): Iraq and Afghanistan. Since Iraq has heated up enough to be called a LW campaign once again there are currently 7 LW campaigns: Afghanistan, Pak Tribal Lands, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Mali. There is a clear trend of more wars and they are moving down the African continent. Nigeria is on the verge of tipping into a jihadist guerrilla war, Kenya is heating up, and Sudan is always near a boil.
So two big jihadist pincer movements are creeping down either side of the African continent, pointing at South Africa, the strongest country in Africa by far. South Africa is militantly Christian. The bad guys need the Long War to become a Muslim vs Christian conflict to really light the world on fire. In time they will succeed, unless the CIA really has its shit together. But Petraeus will probably be followed by a weaker Director, so it won't have its shit together. When this weak Director takes over, the wars in Africa will explode. There will be blow back up the continent and Iran will catch fire. When all this happens we will see much bigger wars, the size of Vietnam. By then there will be a third CIA Director and he will be as good as the current one. If the CIA is left alone then countries like South Africa, Ethopia, and Turkey will do most of the fighting. The good guys will win. It will take a few decades to mop up the aftermath. The whole process will take about 100 years.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
CIA Has A Rat In Its Mouth And Is Shaking Hard
Long War: We know that the CIA was heavily involved in the Libyan Civil War because there were a vast number of media reports of Western Special Forces soldiers helping the rebels and these Western soldier all had phony British accents. We don't really need to fish around for CIA fingerprints in Syria because the CIA has openly told the media it is setting up supply lines to the rebels as well as training them in communication. This means Langley is up to its neck in the Syrian War, running every aspect of it.
Assad's Syrian Army is at least ten times more professional than Gaddafi's crappy toy soldier army was before it was annihilated. The Syrian Army is a tough nut to crack. But look what's happening now...
The rebel FSA has control of over half the country. It is tearing the heart out of Assad's army. Neighboring countries besides Turkey are now opening up refugee camps that the FSA will use as military bases, allowing the FSA (good guys) to attack Assad from different angles. Lebanon has moved its army to the Syrian border, threatening Assad and we don't hear a peep out of Hezbollah, Syria's jihadist ally within Lebanon. Assad is proposing a new peace plan to Kofi Annan (the UN peace negotiator). This plan calls for a bunch of little ceasefires in the areas of Syria where Assad's army is losing. Annan took this plan to Assad's boss: the Ayatollah of Iran. The Ayatollah was horrified that Assad is on his knees begging for peace, begging Iran to give him permission to surrender piecemeal. Annan then took this peace plan to Iraq, which is more or less an ally of Iran, a way to apply pressure to Iran. On top of all this Russia says it will stop selling weapons to Syria. Then (incredibly) it practically apologized for its recent weapons sales. Somebody or something is pressuring Russia, threatening Russia in a way that is scaring the evil old bear. I don't want to speculate how Russia is being pressured but we saw jihadist attacks within China a couple years ago that seemed to bear CIA fingerprints.
If the FSA rebels are winning, then the war will get bigger and nastier because the good guys are going to want to slaughter the bad guys when and if they achieve victory, a horrific bloodbath. The bad guys know this and will therefore fight to the last man.
Yes, the good guys will commit genocide, just as the good guys carpet-bombed Germany in WW II, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children. This isn't a Hollywood movie where the good guys wear white hats and never do anything morally confusing. This is the Long War, a century-long nightmare that is only just beginning.
What we are seeing is a sort of Petraeus Doctrine, where assets are siphoned off of less important Long War battlefields, funneled into the one crucial battlefield, and then these assets are used without mercy in a savage offensive that involves multiple layers of complexity.
Assad's Syrian Army is at least ten times more professional than Gaddafi's crappy toy soldier army was before it was annihilated. The Syrian Army is a tough nut to crack. But look what's happening now...
The rebel FSA has control of over half the country. It is tearing the heart out of Assad's army. Neighboring countries besides Turkey are now opening up refugee camps that the FSA will use as military bases, allowing the FSA (good guys) to attack Assad from different angles. Lebanon has moved its army to the Syrian border, threatening Assad and we don't hear a peep out of Hezbollah, Syria's jihadist ally within Lebanon. Assad is proposing a new peace plan to Kofi Annan (the UN peace negotiator). This plan calls for a bunch of little ceasefires in the areas of Syria where Assad's army is losing. Annan took this plan to Assad's boss: the Ayatollah of Iran. The Ayatollah was horrified that Assad is on his knees begging for peace, begging Iran to give him permission to surrender piecemeal. Annan then took this peace plan to Iraq, which is more or less an ally of Iran, a way to apply pressure to Iran. On top of all this Russia says it will stop selling weapons to Syria. Then (incredibly) it practically apologized for its recent weapons sales. Somebody or something is pressuring Russia, threatening Russia in a way that is scaring the evil old bear. I don't want to speculate how Russia is being pressured but we saw jihadist attacks within China a couple years ago that seemed to bear CIA fingerprints.
If the FSA rebels are winning, then the war will get bigger and nastier because the good guys are going to want to slaughter the bad guys when and if they achieve victory, a horrific bloodbath. The bad guys know this and will therefore fight to the last man.
Yes, the good guys will commit genocide, just as the good guys carpet-bombed Germany in WW II, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children. This isn't a Hollywood movie where the good guys wear white hats and never do anything morally confusing. This is the Long War, a century-long nightmare that is only just beginning.
What we are seeing is a sort of Petraeus Doctrine, where assets are siphoned off of less important Long War battlefields, funneled into the one crucial battlefield, and then these assets are used without mercy in a savage offensive that involves multiple layers of complexity.
Monday, July 9, 2012
No, We Don't Worship the CIA
Long War: A video has gone viral showing an Afghani woman being executed by the Taliban for adultery. Her adulterous act was to be raped over the course of several months by two Taliban commanders. She probably started fighting back, which pissed off the two commanders, hence the charge of adultery. This all took place only a few miles from Kabul, well away from the parts of Afghanistan under complete Taliban control. The woman's sentence was handed down by a Taliban court controlled by the two commanders. These courts are much more popular than official government courts because in matters of property and business they are virtually corruption free. In other words, if my neighbor builds a fence on my goat pasture, then a Taliban court will force the fence to be removed without shaking me down. A government court will demand a bribe, but it will leave the fence up if my neighbor can pay a bigger bribe. So if I am a goat herder in Afghanistan, then I will respect and obey the Taliban if I can keep my head down in my personal life, keep my wife and daughters covered head to toe and indoors all the time.
The Taliban leaders can afford to be corruption free in their governance because they make huge money in the heroin trade. Shaking down a small goat herder is unnecessary when you are making huge money selling narcotics.
What this means is that the Pentagon, the Army and the USMC, can never win the war in Afghanistan. There is only one way to win the war: The CIA has to create its own Taliban, one that it can control, and then this organization has to take over the heroin trade and the Taliban court system. This can only happen when NATO leaves the country, international aid stops, NGOs leave, and the media leaves. In the darkness of benign neglect the CIA can easily win the war, like falling off a log. This is how the CIA won the Cold War. It is a proven formula. It is not appealing. It is morally questionable. The only thing it has going for it is that it works and will bring peace and prosperity to a war torn planet.
Kofi Anan (the UN point man for Syria) says he has made a breakthrough in negotiating with Assad and has just arrived in Iran to peddle whatever deal he has come up with to Syria's boss, the Ayatollah. Maybe this is a big breakthrough and maybe not. For the sake of argument let's say it is a breakthrough. It has come about because the CIA is running the war in Syria and it is not playing by the Boy Scout Pentagon rule book. For example, the CIA almost succeeded in getting Turkey to attack Assad's government, which certainly scared the crap out of the tin pot dictator.
In Libya election results are coming in and the Islamist parties are taking it on the chin. Probably the election there was not fair. It was probably rigged by our good friends in Langley. Again, the Boy Scout, Dudley Doright, rule book is not widely read by the spooks in Langley. They don't play fair. They don't fight fair. The kick you in the balls, pull your hair, say you started it all, and everybody believes them. Not Kosher. Not cool. Not cricket.
We don't worship the CIA. We don't think they walk on water. All we are saying here is that they are the right tool for the job at hand: winning the @#$%& Long War.
The Taliban leaders can afford to be corruption free in their governance because they make huge money in the heroin trade. Shaking down a small goat herder is unnecessary when you are making huge money selling narcotics.
What this means is that the Pentagon, the Army and the USMC, can never win the war in Afghanistan. There is only one way to win the war: The CIA has to create its own Taliban, one that it can control, and then this organization has to take over the heroin trade and the Taliban court system. This can only happen when NATO leaves the country, international aid stops, NGOs leave, and the media leaves. In the darkness of benign neglect the CIA can easily win the war, like falling off a log. This is how the CIA won the Cold War. It is a proven formula. It is not appealing. It is morally questionable. The only thing it has going for it is that it works and will bring peace and prosperity to a war torn planet.
Kofi Anan (the UN point man for Syria) says he has made a breakthrough in negotiating with Assad and has just arrived in Iran to peddle whatever deal he has come up with to Syria's boss, the Ayatollah. Maybe this is a big breakthrough and maybe not. For the sake of argument let's say it is a breakthrough. It has come about because the CIA is running the war in Syria and it is not playing by the Boy Scout Pentagon rule book. For example, the CIA almost succeeded in getting Turkey to attack Assad's government, which certainly scared the crap out of the tin pot dictator.
In Libya election results are coming in and the Islamist parties are taking it on the chin. Probably the election there was not fair. It was probably rigged by our good friends in Langley. Again, the Boy Scout, Dudley Doright, rule book is not widely read by the spooks in Langley. They don't play fair. They don't fight fair. The kick you in the balls, pull your hair, say you started it all, and everybody believes them. Not Kosher. Not cool. Not cricket.
We don't worship the CIA. We don't think they walk on water. All we are saying here is that they are the right tool for the job at hand: winning the @#$%& Long War.
Friday, July 6, 2012
A Tale of Two Geniuses
Charts: The S&P 500 has formed an upward sloping wedge pattern. The outer boundaries currently for the wedge are 1364 on the top and 1334 on the bottom. When the index last hit the upper band of this wedge it formed a Doji Candle; this minor chart pattern within the larger wedge means that buyers and sellers are evenly divided on the overall direction of the market (as a group they are confused). The Doji Candle formation magnifies the importance of a break below the wedge, meaning further losses are likely if 1334 is breached. If the market breaks up out of the wedge, then further gains are likely with resistance at 1392. Wedge patterns in general mean that investors are confused. The current bull market has created lots of wedge patterns because we are in a time of maximum confusion and uncertainty.
Long War: When Osama Bin Laden was in charge of Al-Qaeda he stressed the importance of always attacking America above all else. OBL felt this way for religious reasons, i.e. America is the Great Satan and everything else is small potatoes. Back in the day, Al-Qaeda's #2, Zawahri, counseled against attacking America, and urged his peeps to get busy carving out pieces of the Caliphate in Africa by stressing cooperation among AQ affiliates.
Zawahri is now in charge of AQ. He is a military geniuses of the highest caliber. He invented the concept of suicide bombing, which entails religious education for children tailored to this end as well as all other aspects of Islamic culture in a given society. Essentially, every successful terror tactic in existence was invented by Zawahri.
Zawahri has at last fully taken the reins of the global terror network and his policy of local AQ chapters working together is bearing fruit. One example: Al-Qaeda in Iraq is sending huge numbers of fighters into Syria in an attempt at co-opting the rebellion there. I think the CIA has deliberately left the door open in Iraq for the bad guys, hoping they will commit acts of terror in Iraq, not in Syria. This is sort of working.
There are other examples. In Nigeria bad guys from Boko Haram are being caught who are clearly funded by AQIM. Funding is flowing into Al-Qaeda in Britain and bad guys are being caught there with their hands in the terror jar. This latter move is brilliant because Zawahri can say to the old diehards that loved OBL, "Yo dudes, I know you are itching to strike America, but take that energy and strike Britain instead, they both fit under the rubric of Great Satan and the Limeys are bunch of sissies who won't hit us back."
Zawahri doesn't want to strike America because he doesn't want to awaken a sleeping giant. He simply wants to build the Caliphate one country at a time, patiently carving out little jihadist kingdoms like Mali. Smart.
So the planet is a giant chessboard with CIA director Petraeus moving against Zawahri, two of the greatest military minds to have ever existed.
Long War: When Osama Bin Laden was in charge of Al-Qaeda he stressed the importance of always attacking America above all else. OBL felt this way for religious reasons, i.e. America is the Great Satan and everything else is small potatoes. Back in the day, Al-Qaeda's #2, Zawahri, counseled against attacking America, and urged his peeps to get busy carving out pieces of the Caliphate in Africa by stressing cooperation among AQ affiliates.
Zawahri is now in charge of AQ. He is a military geniuses of the highest caliber. He invented the concept of suicide bombing, which entails religious education for children tailored to this end as well as all other aspects of Islamic culture in a given society. Essentially, every successful terror tactic in existence was invented by Zawahri.
Zawahri has at last fully taken the reins of the global terror network and his policy of local AQ chapters working together is bearing fruit. One example: Al-Qaeda in Iraq is sending huge numbers of fighters into Syria in an attempt at co-opting the rebellion there. I think the CIA has deliberately left the door open in Iraq for the bad guys, hoping they will commit acts of terror in Iraq, not in Syria. This is sort of working.
There are other examples. In Nigeria bad guys from Boko Haram are being caught who are clearly funded by AQIM. Funding is flowing into Al-Qaeda in Britain and bad guys are being caught there with their hands in the terror jar. This latter move is brilliant because Zawahri can say to the old diehards that loved OBL, "Yo dudes, I know you are itching to strike America, but take that energy and strike Britain instead, they both fit under the rubric of Great Satan and the Limeys are bunch of sissies who won't hit us back."
Zawahri doesn't want to strike America because he doesn't want to awaken a sleeping giant. He simply wants to build the Caliphate one country at a time, patiently carving out little jihadist kingdoms like Mali. Smart.
So the planet is a giant chessboard with CIA director Petraeus moving against Zawahri, two of the greatest military minds to have ever existed.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Syria and Iraq
A couple months ago the CIA said it was pulling entirely out of Iraq. Since then jihadist violence has spiked in the desert country, this means the CIA was telling the truth and it really has pulled out of Iraq. At the time this announcement was made I speculated that the Iraqi CIA officers would mostly go to Afghanistan. I seem to be wrong with my first guess. It now seems more likely that the Iraqi CIA contingent is focused on Syria and letting the bad guys run rampant in Iraq.
The reason I think this is because Al-Qaeda in Iraq has taken the lead in injecting jihadist fighters into the Syrian Civil War. This means CIA operatives with experience fighting AQII in Iraq are the best qualified to fight AQII in Syria. And AQII has been mostly shut down in Syria. After making a big splash, suicide (Al-Qaeda style) attacks are way down in Syria.
But suicide attacks are way up in Iraq. The CIA can't be everywhere so it is making a trade-off.
Meanwhile, in the primary war zone, Syria has for three days in a row buzzed the Turkish border with helicopters, mostly troop transporters, probably stuffed with convicts in military uniforms. Each time Syria buzzes the Turkish border, the Turkish Air Force scrambles fighter jets, who line up to shoot down the Syrian helicopters. So far the Turks have not yet fired because the Syrian choppers are turning around once they are threatened by the Turkish Air Force.
While all this is going on Iran is test firing missiles designed to hit Israel and beating its chest with anti-Israeli rhetoric.
Then Syrian dictator Assad says the Turkish F4 his people shot down earlier this week looked like an Israeli fighter on Syrian radar screens. They could practically see Stars of Davids on those screens, the Israeli vibe was that strong from the Turkish fighter.
The reason I think this is because Al-Qaeda in Iraq has taken the lead in injecting jihadist fighters into the Syrian Civil War. This means CIA operatives with experience fighting AQII in Iraq are the best qualified to fight AQII in Syria. And AQII has been mostly shut down in Syria. After making a big splash, suicide (Al-Qaeda style) attacks are way down in Syria.
But suicide attacks are way up in Iraq. The CIA can't be everywhere so it is making a trade-off.
Meanwhile, in the primary war zone, Syria has for three days in a row buzzed the Turkish border with helicopters, mostly troop transporters, probably stuffed with convicts in military uniforms. Each time Syria buzzes the Turkish border, the Turkish Air Force scrambles fighter jets, who line up to shoot down the Syrian helicopters. So far the Turks have not yet fired because the Syrian choppers are turning around once they are threatened by the Turkish Air Force.
While all this is going on Iran is test firing missiles designed to hit Israel and beating its chest with anti-Israeli rhetoric.
Then Syrian dictator Assad says the Turkish F4 his people shot down earlier this week looked like an Israeli fighter on Syrian radar screens. They could practically see Stars of Davids on those screens, the Israeli vibe was that strong from the Turkish fighter.
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