Long War: We know that the CIA was heavily involved in the Libyan Civil War because there were a vast number of media reports of Western Special Forces soldiers helping the rebels and these Western soldier all had phony British accents. We don't really need to fish around for CIA fingerprints in Syria because the CIA has openly told the media it is setting up supply lines to the rebels as well as training them in communication. This means Langley is up to its neck in the Syrian War, running every aspect of it.
Assad's Syrian Army is at least ten times more professional than Gaddafi's crappy toy soldier army was before it was annihilated. The Syrian Army is a tough nut to crack. But look what's happening now...
The rebel FSA has control of over half the country. It is tearing the heart out of Assad's army. Neighboring countries besides Turkey are now opening up refugee camps that the FSA will use as military bases, allowing the FSA (good guys) to attack Assad from different angles. Lebanon has moved its army to the Syrian border, threatening Assad and we don't hear a peep out of Hezbollah, Syria's jihadist ally within Lebanon. Assad is proposing a new peace plan to Kofi Annan (the UN peace negotiator). This plan calls for a bunch of little ceasefires in the areas of Syria where Assad's army is losing. Annan took this plan to Assad's boss: the Ayatollah of Iran. The Ayatollah was horrified that Assad is on his knees begging for peace, begging Iran to give him permission to surrender piecemeal. Annan then took this peace plan to Iraq, which is more or less an ally of Iran, a way to apply pressure to Iran. On top of all this Russia says it will stop selling weapons to Syria. Then (incredibly) it practically apologized for its recent weapons sales. Somebody or something is pressuring Russia, threatening Russia in a way that is scaring the evil old bear. I don't want to speculate how Russia is being pressured but we saw jihadist attacks within China a couple years ago that seemed to bear CIA fingerprints.
If the FSA rebels are winning, then the war will get bigger and nastier because the good guys are going to want to slaughter the bad guys when and if they achieve victory, a horrific bloodbath. The bad guys know this and will therefore fight to the last man.
Yes, the good guys will commit genocide, just as the good guys carpet-bombed Germany in WW II, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children. This isn't a Hollywood movie where the good guys wear white hats and never do anything morally confusing. This is the Long War, a century-long nightmare that is only just beginning.
What we are seeing is a sort of Petraeus Doctrine, where assets are siphoned off of less important Long War battlefields, funneled into the one crucial battlefield, and then these assets are used without mercy in a savage offensive that involves multiple layers of complexity.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
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