Will Iran Stick Its Weenie In The Meat Grinder?

Charts: Over the past year and a half the broad index has been in a long term consolidation channel of 1320-1370. It is now at the upper end of that channel. There had been a short term upward sloping trading channel of 1334-1364. The index is now above that short term channel. If it stays above 1370 for 4 days in a row, then the charts are saying there has been a break out. This rosy view would be easier to swallow if volatility stays low. High volatility makes a mockery of chart analysis.

Long War: Off the Coast of Iran: The US Navy is adding a third aircraft carrier battle group to the mighty Persian Gulf flotilla. There are two battle groups there now. These three battle groups are augmented by fleets from 19 allied navies. This gigantic armada is ready to begin a joint naval exercise designed to train it to work as a single unit to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz, when and if Iran sticks its weenie in the meat grinder.

The Pentagon has almost finished building an anti-ballistic missile shield in the Gulf designed to blow away Iranian missiles. This will shield the Persian Gulf flotilla and allow it to rain holy hell on the bad guys.

The UAE has just finished a $4 billion overland oil pipeline that is now pumping Mideast oil that would have had to have been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but now cannot be touched by Iran, which makes a naval engagement in the Gulf much easier for the good guys.

A couple days ago a refueling ship inside one of the Persian Gulf battle groups fired on an Indian fishing boat that looked a little bit like an Iranian attack speedboat if you squinted just right. The fishing boat had nothing to do with Iran, but it was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Navy did not apologize, instead it said every vessel in the Gulf had better watch its ass because the good guys are not dicking around with Iran any more. This means that the rules of engagement for the Navy have been loosened up to allow for an all-out war.

The full weight of oil sanctions are now hitting Iran. Its economy will soon get so bad that revolution against the regime is possible. This means that as suicidal as it may seem, Iran may attack the mighty armada off its coast. The mouse may attack the lion. But this isn't Aesop's Fables. The mouse will get annihilated.

In Syria: The CIA just assassinated Assad's #1 Defense Minister and his #2 Deputy Defense Minister, dealing a savage blow to the tin pot dictator.

The FSA (good guys) says it is conquering Damascus, the seat of power. The FSA is right. They are winning. They are taking apart Assad's army as if it were an old clock. But its not an old clock; it used to be the most professional army in the Arab world. The media tells us that the FSA is winning because rag tag FSA fighters are taking out Assad's heavy armor with grenade launchers. That's like saying a ten-year-old Girl Scout armed with only a pocket knife has just walked into a biker bar filled with 20 Hell's Angels armed with Uzis. The little girl then start a fight with the bikers. Within minutes she has killed all 20 Hell's Angels. She calmly wipes off the blood, puts her little knife back in her pocket, and sells cookies to the bar patrons that haven't been killed. In the real world that is not possible. In the real world the Girl Scout is a Navy SEAL.