Friday, December 31, 2010

Cold War II Forecast

History moves in cycles, the past repeats itself, Hitler made the same mistakes as Napoleon because he was caught in the same historical cycle. Predicting the future is only possible if you know which cycle the big wheel is spinning through. Most historians who have an opinion state that China today is like Germany of the late 19th century and America is like Britain from that same era. A rising power and a declining one.
Wrong. China is like the Persian Empire 2000 years ago and America is like ancient Rome. The great Eastern power and the global superpower. The Romans fought the Persian Empire under its different names for 700 years and never conquered it. The previous model of a single world empire includes an unconquered smaller second empire that coexists uncomfortably alongside the big one. One world government is impossible. It will instead be two world government.
The parallel to Cold War II is the seven centuries of Roman-Persian Wars. And this is my forecast for the length of Cold War II: seven hundred years, the same as the earlier cycle. But wheels turn within wheels. And Cold War II will also resemble Cold War I. And the professors who say China resembles 19th century Germany aren't all wrong either.
Both Rome and Persia were ultimately destroyed by Islamic armies of the caliphate. America and China face a common foe in global jihad. The bad guys have a very strong grasp of history. They see themselves as the second Great Caliphate. Between the two caliphates we have total victories over Rome, Persia and the Soviet Union, three superpowers defeated. This is why they are so cocky.

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