Long War Good. Cold War II, Not So Much

Geopolitics: In the Pak tribal belt, CIA drone strikes are moving north, as the bad guys move north. In Afghanistan, Green Beret night raids targeting Taliban leaders are moving north of Helmand province as the bad guys also move north. The Great Retreat is underway. It is moving at a glacier's pace. The American public is unhappy. Even though the US is winning, they want it to happen much faster. Personally, I want fried chicken to make me skinnier. Reality dictates that the Long War moves at a slow pace and fried chicken is fattening.
Cold War II isn't going as well as the Long War. China has deployed the Dong Feng-21D anti-aircraft carrier missile. The DF-21D can sink US aircraft carriers that are not heavily protected by Aegis-equipped cruisers and destroyers, most of which are parked in the Persian Gulf defending against Iranian missiles. The US has 24 Aegis warships and needs about 100. The US public will not tolerate the construction of new warships, not unless an aircraft carrier is actually sunk by a Chinese missile. Remember, a Chinese Silkworm missile nearly sunk a British aircraft carrier in the Falkland War. China has been working on anti-aircraft carrier missiles for a long time.
Coinciding with the new Chinese missiles is an announcement that China is curbing the exports of rare earth minerals, a move that especially hurts Japan. China controls 97% of all rare earth production and these minerals are vital for the global electronics industry. Ferro Corporation (FOE) is also dependent on Chinese rare earths. It has long term contracts for these minerals. If these contracts are broken it will hurt FOE. If they are not broken, then FOE will have a big competitive advantage.