Wednesday, January 26, 2011

American Debt

Cold War II: China is still buying US government debt but it is doing so through British brokers, which confuses debt analysts and disguises China's evolving position in US debt. China is openly buying more European debt. Obviously then China intends to back off on US debt purchases and feels that this will create PR problems in the US, hence the move to British brokers.
China is right, there will be PR problems when and if it throttles back on American debt purchases because US interest rates will rise and housing will get hurt. Exports to China, however, will increase. Take one example, Harsco (HSC) which is a top steel service company. Steel mills in most countries can no longer dump slag anywhere they want. This means the slag must be recycled into useful products and then sold. One steel mill can't run a distribution network for recycled slag products, it is smart then for mills to contract slag removal to an outside company. This company must then perform maintenance on the mill during the down time of slag removal and must, in fact, know more about steel mill maintenance than the steel mills themselves know. In China the development of this natural business specialization is in its infancy and Harsco is just beginning to get contracts there.
The Chinese steel industry is hampered by the 2000 mom and pop steel mills propped up by local governments. The central government wants to get rid of these little mills and is very slowly constricting the noose. Fewer but larger and more modern mills will eventually replace all the mom and pops. This process will help certain Western and Korean steel companies.

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