Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Global American Military Empire (GAME)

The Chinese government is a big believer in academic studies. A series of Chinese studies claim that the US is a declining European style empire, doomed to fail. Western scholars would mostly agree with their Chinese counterparts. A tiny number of British professors assert that the primary force driving geopolitical events is America's global military empire. The Chinese scholars started Cold War II, the British scholars can help us understand both CW II and LW.
Look at recent world events through the lens of the British scholars. The Pentagon has an alliance with the Tunisian Army, not the government of Ben Ali. The government of Ben Ali was overthrown when the Tunisian Army disobeyed a direct order to fire on demonstrators. At the moment Tunisia is effectively a military dictatorship, with elections pending. So Ben Ali's government was overthrown by a US ally.
If an election were held today the winners would all be Tunisian generals according to internet analysis. Probably none of the generals will run for office. The possibility emerges that Tunisia will take on the same sort of democracy that Turkey has, i.e. the military has the right to overthrow any government, even one that is popularly elected. This is another way of saying Al-Qaeda can't win an election or the government will be overthrown. And remember Turkey is the only major Muslim power aligned to Israel. In the Cold War Turkey was a stud horse. The biggest mistake Bush made in the Iraq War was not listening to Turkey.
Linking the growth of democracy in the Mideast to the American military empire will make both grow faster.
Let's look at one Cold War II news item through the British professor's lens. Sec. Gates is pushing Japan to amend its constitution so it can take profits on the SM-3 missile defense system is to developing with Raytheon that is sure to see huge demand around the world. The constitutional change will at first make money for Japan but soon it will increase pressure for a military alliance with South Korea. And we see the global US military empire expanding in Asia.
Now take a step back and look at the structure of global financial markets as they relate to the GAME (see title of today's blog). Any major conventional military action anywhere on the globe triggers war with the GAME, whether in the Straits of Taiwan or shipping lanes in the Gulf. Any big military engagement pushes up safe haven US government debt. In the event of a conventional war money automatically pours into the Pentagon's coffers like the Amazon. The biggest investor in US dollars is China, its greatest enemy. But try as it might, China is unable to shed its dollar horde.
So overall conditions seem promising for the GAME.

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