Long War: There are now two separate alliance structures running the Western powers' attack on Gaddafi. NATO is in charge of the No-Fly Zone and the sea blockade and it has installed a Canadian general as commander so it doesn't look as though America is dominant. Then there is another alliance consisting of America, France, and Britain that is involved in direct attacks against Gaddafi's forces. There isn't yet a cosmetic effort to make this second alliance look like America is not lead dog but some sort of fluff will probably arise soon so that Obama can make a speech claiming America isn't leading the two alliances. None of this is fooling anybody, not the Arab street, Congress, or the American public. Meanwhile, British PM Cameron gave a speech about Libya where he extensively quoted Hillary Clinton. All signs point to Hillary being in charge.
More important than all this leadership nonsense is the war itself. Gaddafi and the rebels are locked in several desperate battles in northern Libyan cities. The most important is Misrata, because this city can be used as a launch point for the rebels to attack Tripoli, Gaddafi's stronghold. Allied warplanes are tearing apart Gaddafi's army outside the gates of Misrata and savaging his supply lines leading to the besieged city. Inside the city the rebels are holding their own. They need to destroy Gaddafi's tanks that dominate the city center and take out Gaddafi's snipers who are stationed on building tops. It appears that the rebels have met with some success although the fog of war is very thick.
The rebels need to retake the cities of Ajdabiya, Zintan, and Misrata. Then they must field their "real" army that we talked about yesterday and use it to take Tripoli. They absolutely must have massive support from the CIA to complete this second phase of the war. We must follow the progress of the ongoing battle of Zintan to look for CIA fingerprints because this little town is a mountain redoubt where a handful of Green Berets with TOW missiles would prove decisive. In Zintan we see that Gaddafi's tanks seem to be staying some distance away from the city gates, as if they are afraid of TOW missiles.
For now at least US authority is slowly returning to the Mideast, thanks to Hillary's leadership. Israel is currently engaged in a mini-war in the Gaza strip but Israel is mostly holding its fire, which is something the US wants. In Yemen, it looks like pro-American dictator Saleh will step down from power without starting a civil war. This certainly bears the imprint of US and Saudi involvement. It is a good thing that Saudi Arabia and America are working together again.
If Obama can continue to defer to Hillary, then progress can be made.
Friday, March 25, 2011
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