Long War: NATO is admitting that it does not have western Special Forces soldiers on the ground in Libya directing air strikes. This violates standard military doctrine. NATO justifies this deviation from normal procedures by saying that it is not taking sides in the Libyan Civil War and is not acting as the rebel's air force. Most military experts think this is an unwitting policy to engineer a stalemate between Gaddafi and the rebels. There is a good chance that such a stalemate will hand over huge swaths of the embattled country to Al-Qaeda.
The Long War is a conflict between the global American alliance structure and Al-Qaeda. It is not a war between Gaddafi and America. A stalemate in Libya is bad for Gaddafi, but that isn't important. The major issue is whether or not a stalemate is good or bad for Al Qaeda.
Pakistan is saying the CIA no longer has permission to fly drones over the Pak tribal belt. This is obviously very good for Al Qaeda. In yesterday's blog I pointed out that America's ally, Iraq, recently attacked a CIA asset, the Agency sponsored MEK guerilla fighter base along the Iraq/Iran border. This is very good for Iran.
The Big Picture: The US military has over 1000 bases straddling the entire planet, reaching into every corner of the globe. Many of these bases carry only skeleton crews but are linked to the militaries of the various host countries and exert influence that belies their small size. The average American is unaware that his country has a global empire and is in reality running the planet. The fish cannot see the ocean they are swimming in. One example: A few years ago, the largest Muslim-majority country, Indonesia, moved from dictatorship to democracy. Islamic/jihadist parties were stepped on and partially disabled during this transition period. This would not have happened without America's military presence in the country. But fireworks and headlines were not generated by the gradual ebbing of jihadist influence in Indonesia. In fact Indonesia still has an Islamic insurgency that the American military and the Indonesia Army battle every day, this well-controlled but ongoing insurgency is what generates occasional headlines.
America losing influence in Indonesia will not lead to peace. Losing influence in Iraq and Pakistan will not lead to peace. Erosion of the geopolitical order that governs the planet will not lead to peace.
Can the tiny nation of Qatar break the stalemate in Libya and restore American global hegemony? Probably not, but I could be wrong. Also, my theory that America suffering a setback in the Long War is as catastrophic as a similar setback in the Cold War could be wrong. The USSR had the ability to kill every man, woman and child in America. Al Qaeda does not have this ability. I think this is balanced out by the fact America is not fighting against the bad guys today as hard as it fought against the Cold War bad guys. Maybe this doesn't make as much differences as I think. I'm not trying to create an academic theory, but a guide to investing, as such I am quickly prepared to change my mind.
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