There Is Only One Answer: CIA

Long War: General Petraeus, the greatest combat general in our lifetime, is soon to become the chief of CIA, an organization which currently has only a limited number of paramilitary troops. Petraeus could snap his fingers and become Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the highest ranking military officer in America, and indeed the world. Petraeus is ambitious, eager to lead the Long War, at first glance Chairman of the Joint Chiefs would be better suited to that end than top spook at Langley. Has Petraeus lost his mind?

The current Director of CIA, Leon Panetta, is slated to become Sec. of Defense. Panetta's genius is corralling politicians into making budget cuts. He is one of the reasons America ran a budget surplus in the Clinton years. Together he and Petraeus could potentially remake the entire American military-industrial complex and restructure the architecture of the Long War, if Obama will let them. But before we get to that, let's look at the nitty gritty of this leadership change.

Panetta did a good job running the CIA but the Agency now has problems bigger than he can handle. Pakistan says it will no longer permit drone strikes in the tribal lands. If there are drone strikes, Pakistan will close down vital NATO supply routes by blockading them with thousands of innocent civilians, none of whom America is willing to harm. When the Pak military leaders in charge of this anti-American policy learned that Petraeus was taking over the CIA, they went bananas, turning livid with rage. The drone strikes will continue now and the Pak generals will somehow be outmaneuvered by a genius with greater cunning than they. This better happen, according to research done by The Long War Journal Al-Qaeda is expanding in Afghanistan, due in part to fewer drone strikes. Let's not get all gloom and doom, the Taliban is shrinking in Afghanistan due to the Surge.

Panetta's stint at CIA prepared him for the giant task he now faces as the civilian boss over the Pentagon. After doing his time in Langley, Panetta now understands that only the Agency can win the Long War. Soon he will try to start cutting weapon programs, reduce troops and equipment, close military bases, and then funnel the vast savings this will produce to expand the CIA. We might be seeing the first step in the reordering of America's Long War strategy.

But is this wise? Consider Somalia, Libya, and Iran. The only Long War active combat theaters that are going well right now are Somalia and Libya (Af/Pak is going poorly and the spring fighting season starts in May, yikes). In Somalia, the alliance of the Somali government, Sufi Islamic militias, and the AU army are at last beginning to tear Somali villages from the clutches of Al-Shabab, an Al-Qaeda franchisee. This alliance is directed by the CIA. In Libya, alliance missiles just killed Gaddafi's youngest son, Saif, and narrowly missed the old man. We don't know for sure if they were Hellfire missiles from a CIA drone, but this is likely. And that's exactly the point, the American public doesn't know where the missiles came from and doesn't care: no peace protests, no pressue on Congress to cut and run.

Both Somalia and Libya have tons of CIA operatives but no USMC or US Army troops. Now take Iran. The bad guys there just mournfully announced to the world that yet another @#$% CIA virus is chewing up their nuclear weapons program. Whether a hawk or a dove, any rational person would be in favor of detsroying Iranian nukes with computer viruses, a no-brainer. What's more, the Pentagon can't touch Iran. Sure, the US Air Force could destroy Iran's nuke building program. But then America would need to put several hundred thousands troops in Iran for a decades long nation-building exercise similar to Iraq. Of course the American public won't stand for this. So there is only one way to neuter Iran: CIA.

To turn the not-going-so-well Long War hot spots into the ones run by the CIA that are going well, there must be an expansion of the Agency. It needs to be about ten times bigger. Just putting Petraeus in charge is not enough. Hopefully Obama knows this. If so, then we truly are retracing the path America took in 1948-1950, when Truman put in place the containment strategy and structure that eventually produced a victory in the Cold War and a 20-year secular bull market.

Putting Petraeus in Charge of CIA today is just like putting Eisenhower in charge of NATO six decades ago. Just like Ike, Petraeus is a Republican who wants to be President. Truman selflessly hurt his own party but helped the world. Can Obama become a great leader and follow in Truman's footsteps? Your portfolio depends upon the answer to this question.