Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Al-Qaeda Says Don't Worry Be Happy

Charts: The S&P 500 at midday is plunging back into its downward sloping trading channel, indicating that the correction is ongoing. One day up out of this channel is not technically significant.

Long War: NATO is ordering the Free Libya Army to move back from positions in the front lines around Misrata, the most important battlefield in the war. FLA Posts are quickly being abandoned as the good guys scoot back to dig into new positions under covering fire from NATO war planes. These movements are apparently being directed by British commandos embedded within the FLA. Makeshift helicopter airbases are being constructed close to the new fallback positions.

Within days or hours Apache and Tiger attack helicopters will fly from British and French warships and land in the makeshift air bases. They will then attack Gaddafi's army.

Pro-Gaddafi terrorists exploded a car bomb in the rebel capital city of Benghazi. If the rebels win the conventional war against Gaddafi, then a jihadist type insurgency will spring up in Libya as it did in Iraq. Pro-Gaddafi insurgents will likely reach out to Al-Qaeda for help or join Al-Qaeda outright.

The situation doesn't look so hot in Yemen. Al-Qaeda is getting the word out that the Islamic militants forming their own country there are not Al-Qaeda, but a less worrisome brand of bad guys that nobody has ever heard of. Also, these mysterious less worrisome bad guys are not only forming their own country but helping the tribes aligned against President Saleh in the capital city of Sana. General al-Ahmar is leading the fight against Saleh. He too is aligned with these supposedly less worrisome bad guys. According to Al-Qaeda the entire situation in Yemen is not worrisome to the West and there is no need for a CIA drone campaign. Liberal geopolitical analysts are jumping on Al-Qaeda's clever propaganda and advising Western leaders to not worry, be happy.

In any case the CIA is stretched too thin to mount a campaign in Yemen right now. In fact it seems to have abandoned its mission in Somalia for the time being, perhaps to focus on Libya. Bad guys are therefore making progress in Somalia after several months of steady retreating.

And the situation doesn't look so hot in the Af/Pak war. Yesterday the Taliban launched a huge attack into Pakistan from a safe haven in Afghanistan. It's supposed to be the other way around, the safe haven is supposed to be in Pakistan and the attack is supposed to launch into Afghanistan.

At last we understand the big Al-Qaeda attack on the Pak naval air base that destroyed two electronic surveillance war planes two weeks ago. The Pak Navy had been purging its ranks of dirty officers (pro Al-Qaeda equals dirty). The attack on the naval base was a warning to stop the purge or more military assets needed to fight India would be destroyed. Most likely the purging will continue because the Pak Army is getting ready to invade North Waziristan.

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