Let Slip the Dogs of War

Charts: Technicians say various chart patterns indicate there is a 90% chance the Greek Parliament will vote in favor of the new austerity government put in place last week.

Fundamentals: After the market closes the Greek parliament holds its vote. If the vote doesn't go as expected bad things will happen to financial markets. Most analysts say it will be about as bad as the collapse of Lehman Brothers. We'll soon know one way or the other.

Long War: The Pak Army arrested a dirty general, i.e. one loyal to Islamic bad guys. Immediately after the CIA killed OBL (and Obama took his foolish bow) the Pak Army and ISI started rolling up the CIA network inside Pakistan. For the moment at least the tide has turned, bad guys are getting rolled up and reportedly some CIA informants have been quietly released. Also, a half dozen jihadist villages along the border with Afghanistan are being shelled by the Pak Army, perhaps the start of a new offensive. So the good guys are apparently back in the saddle.

The CIA had been sending drones exclusively to North Waziristan. Yesterday it executed drone strikes into other Pak tribal lands. This implies the ISI and Pak Army have given Langley permission to expand the drone program.

Tomorrow Obama will announce his troop draw down decision in Afghanistan. Probably it will be worse than we would like. He will only get away with this if he unleashes the CIA. This means getting rid of Congressional oversight. The best strategic move Obama has made so far in his presidency was the emasculation of the Director of National Intelligence (a CIA watchdog set up after 9/11). The second best move was when CIA Director Leon Panetta clipped Nancy Pelosi's wings and clipped them hard. The old school CIA would strike back at Congress and even the FBI by threatening to expose personal secrets, such as the fact that J. Edgar Hoover was gay. Hopefully when Patraeus becomes the top spook this old school mindset will solidify and grow.