Charts: The S&P 500 is near the final retracement level in the Fibonacci sequence, which is 1324-1333. This represents a 100% retracement of the bear market low. As the final Fibonacci number, 1324-1333, should represent significant resistance for the broad index. The index blew past the last Fibonacci number with only a minor struggle, which isn't really good technical action. At the 100% retracement we want to see the index hugging resistance and struggling with it for a long while before finally conquering it.
Long War: The protest movement in Egypt is heating up again after a brief lull. Americans tend to think all geopolitical problems have one solution: democracy. So let's look at Egypt's fundamental problems and the possible solutions. Egypt is the world's largest importer of wheat. Other African countries import more rice than wheat and that's a good thing because the price of wheat is rising much faster than rice. Egypt is structurally incapable of switching away from wheat because the state owns most of the bread industry and massively subsidizes the price of bread, selling it to the masses at a huge loss, preventing market forces from working. Natural market forces are channeled into political protests. Every few years Egypt tries to cut bread subsidies which always triggers bread riots and this is what is happening now.
Mubarack's son, Gamal, has been pushing free market reforms over the past few years and his efforts have cut the state's involvement in the bread industry from total control to 60% control. Gamal has also been pushing a host of other free market reforms. During the first half of the Cold War, Egypt was a Soviet vassal state and it had a Soviet style economy that is still mostly intact. This is also true of most Arab countries outside the Gulf. Arab countries have gigantic trade barriers with each other and there is less trade between them than any other regional block of nations. This is why unemployment is so high in the Arab world. Only Iraq is free of trade barriers.
There is no political figure on the Egyptian scene interested in free market reform other than Gamal. Mubarack's son, of course, is now hated and reviled by those advocating regime change and democracy. This large, woolly and disparate group looks at democracy like an inkblot test. They see whatever they want to see in the word democracy. Working class folks in Cairo see democracy as the full restoration of bread subsidies and the ones who have lit themselves on fire have been owners of small restaurants.
During the Cold War the US fostered market oriented right wing dictators in countries like Chile and South Korea. These countries became democracies only after decades of building capitalism. Mubarack's instincts were never capitalistic and he only moved to the right when he was pushed by his son. If Gamal had been allowed to run the country, then it would have traveled the same path as South Korea. This is not happening (obviously). But somehow Egypt needs to find a way toward capitalism to solve its problems.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
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