Long War: The commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Petraeus, says "We've got our teeth in the enemy's jugular, and we're not letting go." He also says major Taliban safe havens are being destroyed, mid-level enemy commanders are absorbing enormous losses, and the Quetta Shura (Taliban governing council) has been thrown into disarray.
Some military bloggers are saying that the average USMC combat patrol kills one Taliban fighter and disarms one roadside bomb. Dozens of patrols are launched every day, so dead bad guys are stacking up like cord wood.
Like a spider web, every corner of the Long War is tugged and pulled by events in Afghanistan. Specifically, in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood must be aware of the losses incurred by the Taliban and Haqqani Network in Afghanistan and are eager to not feel the sharp end of that pointed stick. This is important in light of the sorry track record that democratic elections have played in the original Cold War and the Long War.
In 2006 the US pushed hard for elections in the Palestinian territories (big mistake). The result was that the Muslim Brotherhood's Palestinian affiliate, Hamas, won big election victories but then formed an Islamic dictatorship in the Gaza Strip, and will never hold a second election without being forced to do so. Much the same can be said of another Muslim Brotherhood offshoot, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. That country is on the verge of morphing into an Islamic dictatorship. Jimmy Carter pulled the rug out from under the Shah of Iran and the result was yet another election that ushered in an Islamic dictatorship. During the Cold War we saw Nicaragua elect the Sandinistas, who turned that country into a Soviet style dictatorship and a springboard for Soviet expansion in South America. Take this to the Bank: If the Brotherhood wins electoral control of Egypt, then very bad things will happen to your portfolio.
And this is why Team Obama is treading very carefully in Egypt (smart). As I write, the de facto leader of Egypt, VP Omar Suleiman, is negotiating with opposition leaders for a gradual edging into democracy where Mubarak is allowed to stay in the country, enjoy a ceremonial title, and retire to his villa in comfort. While the negotiations are taking place it appears that Egyptian Intelligence is arresting the street level ringleaders of the protest movement, hopefully neutering them and putting a roadblock in front of the evil Muslim Brotherhood.
Editor's Note: The blog has recently picked up a lot of new readers so I would like to welcome the newcomers and offer this programming note: terms used here to describe moral behavior are in reference to the stock market. The Muslim Brotherhood is evil because the stock market does not like it. It is irrelevant whether it is evil in a philosophical sense. Similarly, Hosni Mubarak is a "good guy" because he has advanced the aims of US foreign policy for three decades, which the stock market likes.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
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