Monday, February 14, 2011

Gaza Blockade Under Threat

Long War: Mubarack is gone and Egypt is now formally a military dictatorship until elections are held in September. The Egyptian Army's first public statement was that all treaties were intact, which is to say that the treaty with Israel is intact. This treaty obligates the Egyptian Army to work with Israel in maintaining the blockade of the Gaza Strip. Hamas is in an ongoing low level war with Israel as it routinely launches rockets into the Jewish state. Military supplies for Hamas come through Egypt and this triggers treaty obligations and active participation in the blockade.
But the blockade is hugely unpopular with the Egyptian public and the Arab world at large. The Muslim Brotherhood is of course savagely opposed to the blockade. If pressure is successfully brought to bear against Egypt's active role in the blockade a series of events will be triggered. Arms will flow into Gaza at a much greater pace. Israel will be forced to step up efforts to block this flow, which will lead to armed conflict with smugglers. And Israel will put Egypt on the hot seat about its treaty obligations, potentially abrogating the treaty. The low level war between Hamas and Israel will become a full-fledged war. Egypt will face pressure to support Hamas.
Remember, the Hamas controlled Gaza Strip is essentially an Islamic dictatorship that won power through the ballot box. Any linkage between Egypt and a dictatorship of this sort is beyond toxic because it paves the way for the coming Egyptian elections to then follow the path of Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and I have a new one for you: Algeria, where hardcore jihadists won an election which was then declared null and void by the Algerian government in the 90s. So we have 4 examples of honest and free elections resulting in Islamic dictatorships.
The canary in the coalmine is therefore Egypt maintaining its Gaza blockade.

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