Charts: For about one month the S&P 500 has been correcting. During the correction a clear downtrend trading channel has emerged. If the index closes above 1335, then it has broken up out of the trading channel. And it would also then be above the 1333 Fibonacci retracement level.
Fundamentals: The market is rallying today on the prospect of Greece getting a second bailout. This new bailout is supposed to be better than the old one because Greece is apparently being forced to sell state owned assets in order to get the bailout. The Greek government has $300 billion worth of assets.
So that's the good news. The bad news is that every other economic indicator sucks as the world economy is slowing down sharply on the back of high oil prices. Only two things can break the back of oil's climb upward: A double-dip recession or victory in the Libya war.
Long War: There are reports of British soldiers fighting on the front lines of the Libya war. France says that British and French attack helicopters will soon enter combat. The British soldiers are probably part of an advanced team that will rescue helicopter pilots downed by shoulder fired missiles.
Al-Qaeda has seized control of two towns in Yemen and declared an Islamic Emirate. In northern Yemen, Iran-linked Houthi rebels are also setting up their own country. The Yemni government is bombing the Al-Qaeda held towns but it is powerless to deal with the Houthi rebels. This is the same government that the US officially says should be dissolved. So we have an upside down Alice in Wonderland situation if we are to believe official US government pronouncements. Obviously Al-Qaeda creating its own country is very bad. However, the fact that the Yemen government is attacking Al-Qaeda even as it faces a separate rebellion in its own capital city is very good. Somehow somebody is pressuring Yemen to act against its own interests.
There are rumors that the Pak Army will launch an offensive against North Waziristan due to US pressure of some sort. This would be very good news if it is true. The Taliban spring offensive in the entire Af/Pak region is much stronger than anticipated.
Ethiopia says it is sending thousands of soldiers to the border region of North and South Sudan to enforce a demilitarized zone. The prospect of the Sudanese Civil War flaring up has diminished.
A pattern emerges in all these Long War events: America is not engaged the way it should be in the global conflict but America's allies are picking up the slack. It is interesting that various US allies seem to be acting under the threat of pressure of some sort.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Friday, May 27, 2011
The Tonnerre May Destroy Gaddafi
Long War: Last weekend six Al-Qaeda fighters invaded a Pak military base and destroyed two high tech airplanes, part of its campaign to avenge the death of OBL. It appears these fighters were Chechens, trained to the same level as US Navy Seals. It took 100 elite Pak soldiers to defeat the six Chechen fighters. The fact that they were from Russia demonstrates how this part of the Long War forms a huge cohesive and unified arc from Afghanistan up into the Caucus mountains. Also, the Pak military base was only 12 miles from a Pak nuclear weapons station. Al-Qaeda was giving a message with this raid: someday it intends to control Pak nuclear weapons.
The Pak government had been saying that it was going to let China build a naval base on the Pak coastline, an attempt to hurt America and India. The Pak PM said that China and Pakistan were "One nation." As information and implications filter out about the Al-Qaeda raid, China is backing away from its nascent alliance with Pakistan. China now says it doesn't want to build this naval base. In the aftermath of OBL's death we are all learning that Al-Qaeda is much stronger than previously thought, China included. The Great Dragon is beginning to fear Islamic radicalism in Asia.
The French warship Tonnerre is steaming toward the Libyan coast. It contains 12 attack helicopters, 4 troop transport helicopters, 13 main battle tanks, numerous landing craft, and 450 soldiers. It has the firepower to destroy Gaddafi's regime all by itself. A British warship similarly equipped is now leaving port.
As these warships get closer to Libya, the entire situation in the Mideast and North Africa is settling down. The brewing civil wars in Yemen and Sudan are cooling off, for now. Just as America's weak-kneed response to the Libya war inflamed the entire region, so the robust actions of Britain and France are maybe, just maybe, starting to bring calm. France and Britain will of course have to follow through for this to be true. We will know shortly as these warships and their crews go into action.
It is impossible to overstate how important it is for France and Britain to prevail. North Sudan is aligned with China because the Great Dragon has investments in Sudan's oil industry. As we've seen with Pakistan reaching out to China, if the Long War deteriorates badly enough, it starts to meld into Cold War II. Obviously this is a recipe for one gigantic global war, something the stock market will not like.
The Pak government had been saying that it was going to let China build a naval base on the Pak coastline, an attempt to hurt America and India. The Pak PM said that China and Pakistan were "One nation." As information and implications filter out about the Al-Qaeda raid, China is backing away from its nascent alliance with Pakistan. China now says it doesn't want to build this naval base. In the aftermath of OBL's death we are all learning that Al-Qaeda is much stronger than previously thought, China included. The Great Dragon is beginning to fear Islamic radicalism in Asia.
The French warship Tonnerre is steaming toward the Libyan coast. It contains 12 attack helicopters, 4 troop transport helicopters, 13 main battle tanks, numerous landing craft, and 450 soldiers. It has the firepower to destroy Gaddafi's regime all by itself. A British warship similarly equipped is now leaving port.
As these warships get closer to Libya, the entire situation in the Mideast and North Africa is settling down. The brewing civil wars in Yemen and Sudan are cooling off, for now. Just as America's weak-kneed response to the Libya war inflamed the entire region, so the robust actions of Britain and France are maybe, just maybe, starting to bring calm. France and Britain will of course have to follow through for this to be true. We will know shortly as these warships and their crews go into action.
It is impossible to overstate how important it is for France and Britain to prevail. North Sudan is aligned with China because the Great Dragon has investments in Sudan's oil industry. As we've seen with Pakistan reaching out to China, if the Long War deteriorates badly enough, it starts to meld into Cold War II. Obviously this is a recipe for one gigantic global war, something the stock market will not like.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Geopolitics Very Shaky
Long War: North Sudan refuses to withdraw its army from the Abyei region. This region has been (and maybe is now) the focal point of the Sudanese Civil War. The South Sudan Army says the north is preparing for "full-scale war." It is extremely dangerous to have the Libya Civil War unresolved while a second and potentially bigger civil war gathers pace in another corner of North Africa. Because of this Britain has decided to deploy Apache attack helicopters into the Libya war, abandoning all pretense of a humanitarian-only mission. Britain is begging America to add some muscle to the Libya war. America refuses, whistling while Rome burns.
Pakistan is asking China to build a naval base in a Pak seaport. If this happens it would be the first serious effort at Chinese global force projection in modern times. It seems that Pakistan is at least thinking about abandoning its alliance with the US and replacing it with an alliance with China. Over the weekend a NATO supply route that runs through Pakistan was blocked again by civilian protesters, although the blockage was easily skirted. More worrisome, a Taliban raid succeeded in destroying advanced American electronic surveillance warplanes at a Pak air base. The Taliban fighters were given insider information to conduct their raid, which speaks of ISI involvement. The alliance with Pakistan has become very wobbly since OBL was killed and civilian American politicians have muddied the water.
Every military conflict over the past four decades has been described by liberals as being like Vietnam. Grenada was like Vietnam. Bosnia was like Vietnam. The aid mission to Somalia was like Vietnam. Etc... etc... But even a broken clock gives an accurate reading twice a day. Investors need to be alert to the Afghan war following the same path as the Vietnam war. If Pakistan were to become hostile to the US and expanded its safe haven status for the Taliban, then we would have a replication of Cambodia's safe haven status for the bad guys in the Vietnam war. America was reluctant to send ground troops into Cambodia for fear of drawing China into the Vietnam war.
The country of Vietnam was bigger than Nazi Germany. Because it was so big, the Vietnam war needed greater military horsepower on the part of the US to win. But Medicare was being created at the time and there was a decision to choose butter over guns. Obama-Care is playing the same role today in the Afghan war.
Pakistan is asking China to build a naval base in a Pak seaport. If this happens it would be the first serious effort at Chinese global force projection in modern times. It seems that Pakistan is at least thinking about abandoning its alliance with the US and replacing it with an alliance with China. Over the weekend a NATO supply route that runs through Pakistan was blocked again by civilian protesters, although the blockage was easily skirted. More worrisome, a Taliban raid succeeded in destroying advanced American electronic surveillance warplanes at a Pak air base. The Taliban fighters were given insider information to conduct their raid, which speaks of ISI involvement. The alliance with Pakistan has become very wobbly since OBL was killed and civilian American politicians have muddied the water.
Every military conflict over the past four decades has been described by liberals as being like Vietnam. Grenada was like Vietnam. Bosnia was like Vietnam. The aid mission to Somalia was like Vietnam. Etc... etc... But even a broken clock gives an accurate reading twice a day. Investors need to be alert to the Afghan war following the same path as the Vietnam war. If Pakistan were to become hostile to the US and expanded its safe haven status for the Taliban, then we would have a replication of Cambodia's safe haven status for the bad guys in the Vietnam war. America was reluctant to send ground troops into Cambodia for fear of drawing China into the Vietnam war.
The country of Vietnam was bigger than Nazi Germany. Because it was so big, the Vietnam war needed greater military horsepower on the part of the US to win. But Medicare was being created at the time and there was a decision to choose butter over guns. Obama-Care is playing the same role today in the Afghan war.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
Obama Screws Up
Long War: Pres. Obama's big speech on the so-called Arab Spring (or Rage Rebellion) included this sentence: "If you take the risk that reform entails, you will have the full support of the United States."
That translates to: If your rebel movement can make as much headway as the Free Libya movement did, then the US will impose a No-Fly Zone over your country and provide covert (CIA) support to your cause. His speech went on to say that heavy US support would not be forthcoming in the Gulf, where all the authoritarian governments are US allies.
This leaves three countries where Obama implies the US might provide the same level of anti-government support that it does to Libya: Syria, Yemen, and North Sudan. Obama is essentially declaring war on these three countries. Except the President doesn't mean what he said in any way, shape, or form. Maybe adding this line was a mistake. A ton of changes were made to the speech at the last second. In any case, the dictators of Yemen and North Sudan can't take any chances that Obama is just kidding so they both went on the offensive over the weekend.
North Sudan invaded and seized the disputed town of Abyei, the centerpiece to the multi-decade Sudanese conflict. This is likely to restart the Sudanese Civil War (SCW). If this happens it will be a huge setback in the Long War. If the SCW does indeed start back up and the Libya Civil War is still going on, then there could be an alliance between N. Sudan leader Bashir and Gaddafi. The US and NATO would then be forced to back South Sudan and the Libya war would widen. Liberals in Europe and America would go insane at the prospects of the NATO mission widening in North Africa.
Also in response to Obama's speech the government of Yemen seems to have taken US, British and Allied Arab diplomats hostage. I'm getting this hot off the wire so maybe it isn't as bad as all that. Still, it doesn't sound good.
Obama's speech is proving to be a huge mistake.
That translates to: If your rebel movement can make as much headway as the Free Libya movement did, then the US will impose a No-Fly Zone over your country and provide covert (CIA) support to your cause. His speech went on to say that heavy US support would not be forthcoming in the Gulf, where all the authoritarian governments are US allies.
This leaves three countries where Obama implies the US might provide the same level of anti-government support that it does to Libya: Syria, Yemen, and North Sudan. Obama is essentially declaring war on these three countries. Except the President doesn't mean what he said in any way, shape, or form. Maybe adding this line was a mistake. A ton of changes were made to the speech at the last second. In any case, the dictators of Yemen and North Sudan can't take any chances that Obama is just kidding so they both went on the offensive over the weekend.
North Sudan invaded and seized the disputed town of Abyei, the centerpiece to the multi-decade Sudanese conflict. This is likely to restart the Sudanese Civil War (SCW). If this happens it will be a huge setback in the Long War. If the SCW does indeed start back up and the Libya Civil War is still going on, then there could be an alliance between N. Sudan leader Bashir and Gaddafi. The US and NATO would then be forced to back South Sudan and the Libya war would widen. Liberals in Europe and America would go insane at the prospects of the NATO mission widening in North Africa.
Also in response to Obama's speech the government of Yemen seems to have taken US, British and Allied Arab diplomats hostage. I'm getting this hot off the wire so maybe it isn't as bad as all that. Still, it doesn't sound good.
Obama's speech is proving to be a huge mistake.
Friday, May 20, 2011
US, Russia, and India
Long War: China says it will deliver 50 fighter jets to the Pak Army. The US is holding back the replacement fighters that it would normally be supplying to the Pak Army for political reasons, leaving Pakistan no choice but to accept the Chinese fighters; except for one thing, the Chinese jets suck.
The Pak Army will not want to go to war against India geared up with Chinese weapons. Nevertheless, relations between Pakistan and America are so strained that Pakistan is contemplating an alliance with America's greatest enemy (not counting Al-Qaeda). That it has got this far is a screw-up on America's part.
This brings up the larger issue of how America should deal with Pakistan. As always when I say "should" I mean in a way that would make the stock market go up. And since the stock market is 100% amoral what "should" happen might or might not be morally wrong.
The most bullish approach for America to take would be cementing the nascent alliance with Russia by sharing advanced military technology like missile defense. In return Russia would agree to open supply routes to NATO forces in Afghanistan through its adjacent territory. This way Pakistan would lose its only real leverage over America, the NATO supply routes that run through Pak territory.
America would then increase its drone bombing campaign in the Pak tribal lands and offer advanced military technology to India. Pakistan would soon be begging to rejoin the global American military alliance as well as get serious about purging jihadists within the Pak Army and putting the hammer down on Mullah Omar.
If America were to have a much stronger alliance with India, then it might be able to engineer a pull-back of the India troops on the Pak/India border. This would allow Pakistan to double the troops it has devoted to fighting the jihadists in the tribal lands. So an alliance with India would be a good thing.
An alliance with Russia would be even more significant than one with India. The arc of Islamic violence in the region starts in Afghanistan to the south and goes up through former Soviet territories into Chechnya, all essentially Russian turf. A Russian alliance provides an endgame and eventual victory in the most important part of the Long War.
There are small scale talks going on right now between Russia and America about opening NATO supply routes through Russia into Afghanistan. If these talks make progress, then we are seeing progress in the Long War. Similarly, increased military or diplomatic contact between India and America is a good thing.
The Pak Army will not want to go to war against India geared up with Chinese weapons. Nevertheless, relations between Pakistan and America are so strained that Pakistan is contemplating an alliance with America's greatest enemy (not counting Al-Qaeda). That it has got this far is a screw-up on America's part.
This brings up the larger issue of how America should deal with Pakistan. As always when I say "should" I mean in a way that would make the stock market go up. And since the stock market is 100% amoral what "should" happen might or might not be morally wrong.
The most bullish approach for America to take would be cementing the nascent alliance with Russia by sharing advanced military technology like missile defense. In return Russia would agree to open supply routes to NATO forces in Afghanistan through its adjacent territory. This way Pakistan would lose its only real leverage over America, the NATO supply routes that run through Pak territory.
America would then increase its drone bombing campaign in the Pak tribal lands and offer advanced military technology to India. Pakistan would soon be begging to rejoin the global American military alliance as well as get serious about purging jihadists within the Pak Army and putting the hammer down on Mullah Omar.
If America were to have a much stronger alliance with India, then it might be able to engineer a pull-back of the India troops on the Pak/India border. This would allow Pakistan to double the troops it has devoted to fighting the jihadists in the tribal lands. So an alliance with India would be a good thing.
An alliance with Russia would be even more significant than one with India. The arc of Islamic violence in the region starts in Afghanistan to the south and goes up through former Soviet territories into Chechnya, all essentially Russian turf. A Russian alliance provides an endgame and eventual victory in the most important part of the Long War.
There are small scale talks going on right now between Russia and America about opening NATO supply routes through Russia into Afghanistan. If these talks make progress, then we are seeing progress in the Long War. Similarly, increased military or diplomatic contact between India and America is a good thing.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
After Gaddafi, Then What?
Libya War: The Free Libya Army has pushed Gaddafi's army back into the villages surrounding the rebel held town of Misrata, the key battleground in the war. Gaddafi's soldiers are licking their wounds and digging in after their recent loses, hoping to hold these little villages near Misrata. If Gaddafi's soldiers are pushed out of these villages, then the rebels will start preparing to march on Tripoli.
There are two other battles going on: Along the border with Tunisia and further east near the oil city of Brega where Gaddafi's forces are sitting ducks. NATO war planes have destroyed hundreds of tanks and infantry equipment, on the verge of reducing the Brega loyalist forces into a non-mechanized army.
Last week Gaddafi had clerics on his payroll issue a fatwa supporting his cause, this is a formal religious call for jihad, a prelude to his forces going underground and linking up with Al-Qaeda when and if they lose the conventional war. There already is a very low level guerrilla war in Benghazi, the rebel capitol city. Pro-Gaddafi insurgents are rounded up every day by the Free Libya security forces in the east.
Former elements of Saddam Hussein's government essentially formed Al-Qaeda in Iraq, so it seems likely Gaddafi loyalists would try to do the same if Gaddafi's government falls. The big question is can the oil fields and pipelines be protected from insurgents?
There are two other battles going on: Along the border with Tunisia and further east near the oil city of Brega where Gaddafi's forces are sitting ducks. NATO war planes have destroyed hundreds of tanks and infantry equipment, on the verge of reducing the Brega loyalist forces into a non-mechanized army.
Last week Gaddafi had clerics on his payroll issue a fatwa supporting his cause, this is a formal religious call for jihad, a prelude to his forces going underground and linking up with Al-Qaeda when and if they lose the conventional war. There already is a very low level guerrilla war in Benghazi, the rebel capitol city. Pro-Gaddafi insurgents are rounded up every day by the Free Libya security forces in the east.
Former elements of Saddam Hussein's government essentially formed Al-Qaeda in Iraq, so it seems likely Gaddafi loyalists would try to do the same if Gaddafi's government falls. The big question is can the oil fields and pipelines be protected from insurgents?
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Congressional Posturing Is Problematic
Long War: The desire for Congress to stick its nose into the Af/Pak war is gathering momentum. Brain dead congressmen are beating the Pakistan drum harder and harder, demanding that Pakistan become squeaky clean overnight or all military aid will be cut. Liberals want to use the money for social spending. Tea Party politicians want to grab it for deficit reduction. Neither has a clue about the geopolitical consequences.
Pakistan is not squeaky clean. How squeaky clean is America? US Army Major Hassan killed 12 soldiers in cold blood a year or so back, acting on the orders of Al-Qaeda. There have been at least a dozen instances like this over the past decade. US Army Private Manning gave the names of CIA informants to Wiki-leaks, many were probably killed by the Taliban. Manning will be tried for treason. A small percentage of US combatants are acting as moles for Al-Qaeda. A larger percentage, but still a minority, of Pak intelligence officers and combatants are also traitors. How about the general population of both countries? A couple days ago a Taliban cell was exposed in Florida. Dozens of Al-Shabab fighters in Somalia are US citizens, recruited by Al-Qaeda cells in St. Paul, Minn.
Yesterday a Pak Army unit fired on an American helicopter because of Congressional posturing. There are currently 165,000 Pak Army soldiers fighting in the Pak tribal lands. They could stop fighting all at once and Afghanistan would be overrun with bad guys.
No doubt Congress will lose interest and catastrophe will be averted. If left alone, the Pentagon and CIA are more than up to the job. There have been several large battles in Afghanistan between the bad guys and the Afghan Army during the start to the spring fighting season. The Afghan soldiers so far are achieving a 12-1 kill ratio.
Pakistan is not squeaky clean. How squeaky clean is America? US Army Major Hassan killed 12 soldiers in cold blood a year or so back, acting on the orders of Al-Qaeda. There have been at least a dozen instances like this over the past decade. US Army Private Manning gave the names of CIA informants to Wiki-leaks, many were probably killed by the Taliban. Manning will be tried for treason. A small percentage of US combatants are acting as moles for Al-Qaeda. A larger percentage, but still a minority, of Pak intelligence officers and combatants are also traitors. How about the general population of both countries? A couple days ago a Taliban cell was exposed in Florida. Dozens of Al-Shabab fighters in Somalia are US citizens, recruited by Al-Qaeda cells in St. Paul, Minn.
Yesterday a Pak Army unit fired on an American helicopter because of Congressional posturing. There are currently 165,000 Pak Army soldiers fighting in the Pak tribal lands. They could stop fighting all at once and Afghanistan would be overrun with bad guys.
No doubt Congress will lose interest and catastrophe will be averted. If left alone, the Pentagon and CIA are more than up to the job. There have been several large battles in Afghanistan between the bad guys and the Afghan Army during the start to the spring fighting season. The Afghan soldiers so far are achieving a 12-1 kill ratio.
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Let The Drugs Flow in Afghanistan
Charts: The S&P 500 broke under the key support level of 1333 yesterday in big volume. The 50-day exponential moving average is 1327. Breaking below that level is bad. The 50-day moving average is 1323. It could be very bad if the 50-day doesn't hold.
Fundamentals: Corrections in this bull market have all come from the problems associated with Greek sovereign debt. Greek GDP needs to grow at 13% to service its current debt load without default. The rescue packages have so far been designed to kick the can down the road until Greece's economy starts growing again. It has been a year since the first rescue and the Greek economy is growing between negative 3% and positive 0.7%. The weak GDP performance is because Greece won't sell hundreds of money losing state owned companies and restructure in other ways. If it did this it still wouldn't grow at 13%, but bond yields would come down so it wouldn't need impossible growth rates to survive. If Greece defaults on its bonds, then the European Central Bank would need to be recapitalized and several large French and German banks would too. The impact would be about the same as Lehman's collapse on financial markets.
Long War: Since we are talking about what "should" happen in Greece, let's do the same to the war in Af/Pak. OBL was very good at tapping wealthy Saudi's for millions and then funneling cash to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Now that OBL is gone, the Taliban is almost 100% reliant on heroin sales for funding, which is hundreds of millions yearly, much bigger than Saudi donations. If the CIA were totally in charge of the war it would stop America's anti-drug crusade in Afghanistan and would instead take over the drug trade and funnel the money into the war effort. It already does this to a small degree with Ahmid Karzai (Pres. Karzai's brother). If left alone it would expand this concept and could actually win the war in a few years. At some point it could emphasize pot production over heroin and gradually move away from the narco-state model, but really the eons-old problem that all of Mankind has with drugs is nothing compared to the current danger of an escalating Long War. The CIA is very good at choosing between the lesser of two evils.
Congress cannot choose between decaf and regular coffee. The more Congress gets involved in the war the more it wants to wipe out drug trafficking, which helps the Taliban by driving trafficking deep underground and by the simple fact that drug eradication simply does not work; consider the war on drugs in Mexico. So this is what "should" happen in Af/Pak: Congress, the White House and the DEA need to stop running the show and let the Pentagon/CIA take over. The western media needs to get kicked out of the battle torn country so unsavory but necessary steps can be executed. This is what Gen. Petraeus will try to do when he takes over CIA.
Fundamentals: Corrections in this bull market have all come from the problems associated with Greek sovereign debt. Greek GDP needs to grow at 13% to service its current debt load without default. The rescue packages have so far been designed to kick the can down the road until Greece's economy starts growing again. It has been a year since the first rescue and the Greek economy is growing between negative 3% and positive 0.7%. The weak GDP performance is because Greece won't sell hundreds of money losing state owned companies and restructure in other ways. If it did this it still wouldn't grow at 13%, but bond yields would come down so it wouldn't need impossible growth rates to survive. If Greece defaults on its bonds, then the European Central Bank would need to be recapitalized and several large French and German banks would too. The impact would be about the same as Lehman's collapse on financial markets.
Long War: Since we are talking about what "should" happen in Greece, let's do the same to the war in Af/Pak. OBL was very good at tapping wealthy Saudi's for millions and then funneling cash to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Now that OBL is gone, the Taliban is almost 100% reliant on heroin sales for funding, which is hundreds of millions yearly, much bigger than Saudi donations. If the CIA were totally in charge of the war it would stop America's anti-drug crusade in Afghanistan and would instead take over the drug trade and funnel the money into the war effort. It already does this to a small degree with Ahmid Karzai (Pres. Karzai's brother). If left alone it would expand this concept and could actually win the war in a few years. At some point it could emphasize pot production over heroin and gradually move away from the narco-state model, but really the eons-old problem that all of Mankind has with drugs is nothing compared to the current danger of an escalating Long War. The CIA is very good at choosing between the lesser of two evils.
Congress cannot choose between decaf and regular coffee. The more Congress gets involved in the war the more it wants to wipe out drug trafficking, which helps the Taliban by driving trafficking deep underground and by the simple fact that drug eradication simply does not work; consider the war on drugs in Mexico. So this is what "should" happen in Af/Pak: Congress, the White House and the DEA need to stop running the show and let the Pentagon/CIA take over. The western media needs to get kicked out of the battle torn country so unsavory but necessary steps can be executed. This is what Gen. Petraeus will try to do when he takes over CIA.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Purging ISI Very Difficult
Long War: India has given the US and Pakistan a list of 50 dirty ISI officers and demanded that these bad guys be purged from the ISI. Senator Kerry is heading to Pakistan to demand a purging of the dirty ISI officers as well as overall good behavior from the entire Pak government. A trial is opening in the US which will probably convict dirty ISI officers in a US court over the Mumbai terror strike. Probably the Raymond Davis incident was only the tip of the iceberg as far as the CIA's efforts to purge dirty ISI officers. A new battleground has emerged in the Long War: The Purging of the ISI.
You would think with all these attempts at purging dirty officers, the Pak spy agency would be clean as a whistle by now. Sadly, it is still filthy. The problem is that while there are plenty of purging attempts there is very little actual purging going on. For example: Dirty ISI officers are still sheltering Mullah Omar and his staff in the Pak tribal lands, or somewhere in Pakistan. So this is a big problem.
But the public perception and media presentation of the dirty ISI officers is highly inaccurate. The media is saying that the Pak Army is not attacking the Taliban because of ISI dirt. This isn't true. There is a big Pak Army military offensive underway right now in one of the more rebellious tribal provinces. The Pak Army in the tribal lands is losing soldiers and fighting just as hard as the American Army in Afghanistan. Cutting off military aid to the Pak Army would not hurt the dirty ISI officers; actually it would help them big time. Anything that helps the Taliban helps ISI dirt.
Solving the problem of ISI dirt is no business of the US Congress. It will do stupid things like deny the Pak Army bullets just as it has the bad guys in its sights. Yes I sound like a broken record but this Long War challenge is best dealt with by the CIA, not Sen. Kerry.
You would think with all these attempts at purging dirty officers, the Pak spy agency would be clean as a whistle by now. Sadly, it is still filthy. The problem is that while there are plenty of purging attempts there is very little actual purging going on. For example: Dirty ISI officers are still sheltering Mullah Omar and his staff in the Pak tribal lands, or somewhere in Pakistan. So this is a big problem.
But the public perception and media presentation of the dirty ISI officers is highly inaccurate. The media is saying that the Pak Army is not attacking the Taliban because of ISI dirt. This isn't true. There is a big Pak Army military offensive underway right now in one of the more rebellious tribal provinces. The Pak Army in the tribal lands is losing soldiers and fighting just as hard as the American Army in Afghanistan. Cutting off military aid to the Pak Army would not hurt the dirty ISI officers; actually it would help them big time. Anything that helps the Taliban helps ISI dirt.
Solving the problem of ISI dirt is no business of the US Congress. It will do stupid things like deny the Pak Army bullets just as it has the bad guys in its sights. Yes I sound like a broken record but this Long War challenge is best dealt with by the CIA, not Sen. Kerry.
Friday, May 13, 2011
Welcome to 1948
Long War: The parallels between 2011 and 1948 are becoming stronger day by day. The Libya War has narrowed to the city of Misrata,which Gaddafi encircled with a ring of iron just as Joe Stalin encircled Berlin in the Cold War. An airlift is now supplying Misrata as the rebels have pushed Gaddafi's army back far enough to make supply by air feasible. The similarity to the Berlin airlift is striking. And in September the Egyptian and Tunisia elections are looking exactly like the 1948 pivotal Cold War event: the Italian elections where the Communists were outmaneuvered by the CIA and democracy was established in post war Europe.
With the Libya War looking better and better our attention turns to the Egyptian/Tunisian elections and we wonder if the groundwork that occurred before the 1948 Italian election is occurring in North Africa today. Is the CIA on the job?
Imagine you are the CIA, what would you want to see happen in the Egyptian election? The first thing on your wish list is for the Islamic parties to be fractured into a lot of small warring parties, not a single monolithic Muslin Brotherhood. This is indeed happening. Small hardcore and virulent Islamic parties are being started by the hardcore Jihadists that the Egyptian Army is freeing from prison. And just today a moderate Muslim Brotherhood figure seems to be quitting the Brotherhood to start a more moderate Islamic political party, situated to the left (so to speak) of the Brotherhood. This puts the Brotherhood in the middle of the extreme/moderate spectrum of Islamic political parties. It has a lot of competition. I see CIA fingerprints in the plethora of competing Islamic parties in the upcoming Egyptian elections. I think some of these super-soft and super-hard Islamic parties are unwittingly receiving CIA funds and help.
If I am right about this then we have to add a fourth term to our "good guy, bad guy, good bad guy," terminology. The fourth term is "unwitting good bad guy." An unwitting good bad guy would be a hardcore jihadist or moderate Islamic liberal running for the Egyptian parliament while receiving help from the CIA but without knowing it. Such a person would divide the Islamic vote and deprive the Brotherhood of control over the next government of Egypt.
Time will tell if correct spadework is being done in the upcoming North African elections. For the sake of argument let's suppose the CIA is eating its Wheaties and the elections produce results favorable to the USA. The next historical parallel will be the 1949 victory of Mao in the Chinese Civil War. For the sake of the stock market we hope America doesn't make the same mistake in the Long War as Truman made in the Cold War.
Mao winning the Chinese Civil War led directly to the Korean and Vietnam wars. It was the single biggest Cold War screw-up. The screw-up started when Truman disbanded the CIA (then called OSS) in 1945. Right before he disbanded it the CIA had all the agents in pace to deal with Mao in China. All Truman had to do was not dismantle the CIA. That's it, just leave it in existence. It was a titanic mistake. Truman's greatest moment was after two years he restarted the CIA. Those two years of disbandment were very costly.
The parallel today is Obama leaving all the surge troops in place after the 2011 July Afghanistan policy review. If he does that, then he won't be following in Truman's footsteps. In this parallel, Mullah Omar is the equivalent to Chairman Mao. Handing Afghanistan to the Taliban in the form of big and sudden troop withdrawals today will be the equivalent to handing China over to Mao in 1949 by disbanding the CIA in the mid 40s.
The Pentagon is floating the idea in public of a yearly 5000 troop draw-down. This then is the Pentagon's withdrawal timetable: a 20-year long process where the results won't even be noticeable for the first ten years. The Pentagon is not marketing their plan as 20-years long of course. It is saying withdraw 5000 troops in 2012 and 5000 more troops in 2013, and then review the situation. So it is a two year plan, not a 20-year plan, as far as marketing is concerned.
If Obama goes for the 20-year long timetable being marketed as a two year plan, then he will be advancing the cause.
With the Libya War looking better and better our attention turns to the Egyptian/Tunisian elections and we wonder if the groundwork that occurred before the 1948 Italian election is occurring in North Africa today. Is the CIA on the job?
Imagine you are the CIA, what would you want to see happen in the Egyptian election? The first thing on your wish list is for the Islamic parties to be fractured into a lot of small warring parties, not a single monolithic Muslin Brotherhood. This is indeed happening. Small hardcore and virulent Islamic parties are being started by the hardcore Jihadists that the Egyptian Army is freeing from prison. And just today a moderate Muslim Brotherhood figure seems to be quitting the Brotherhood to start a more moderate Islamic political party, situated to the left (so to speak) of the Brotherhood. This puts the Brotherhood in the middle of the extreme/moderate spectrum of Islamic political parties. It has a lot of competition. I see CIA fingerprints in the plethora of competing Islamic parties in the upcoming Egyptian elections. I think some of these super-soft and super-hard Islamic parties are unwittingly receiving CIA funds and help.
If I am right about this then we have to add a fourth term to our "good guy, bad guy, good bad guy," terminology. The fourth term is "unwitting good bad guy." An unwitting good bad guy would be a hardcore jihadist or moderate Islamic liberal running for the Egyptian parliament while receiving help from the CIA but without knowing it. Such a person would divide the Islamic vote and deprive the Brotherhood of control over the next government of Egypt.
Time will tell if correct spadework is being done in the upcoming North African elections. For the sake of argument let's suppose the CIA is eating its Wheaties and the elections produce results favorable to the USA. The next historical parallel will be the 1949 victory of Mao in the Chinese Civil War. For the sake of the stock market we hope America doesn't make the same mistake in the Long War as Truman made in the Cold War.
Mao winning the Chinese Civil War led directly to the Korean and Vietnam wars. It was the single biggest Cold War screw-up. The screw-up started when Truman disbanded the CIA (then called OSS) in 1945. Right before he disbanded it the CIA had all the agents in pace to deal with Mao in China. All Truman had to do was not dismantle the CIA. That's it, just leave it in existence. It was a titanic mistake. Truman's greatest moment was after two years he restarted the CIA. Those two years of disbandment were very costly.
The parallel today is Obama leaving all the surge troops in place after the 2011 July Afghanistan policy review. If he does that, then he won't be following in Truman's footsteps. In this parallel, Mullah Omar is the equivalent to Chairman Mao. Handing Afghanistan to the Taliban in the form of big and sudden troop withdrawals today will be the equivalent to handing China over to Mao in 1949 by disbanding the CIA in the mid 40s.
The Pentagon is floating the idea in public of a yearly 5000 troop draw-down. This then is the Pentagon's withdrawal timetable: a 20-year long process where the results won't even be noticeable for the first ten years. The Pentagon is not marketing their plan as 20-years long of course. It is saying withdraw 5000 troops in 2012 and 5000 more troops in 2013, and then review the situation. So it is a two year plan, not a 20-year plan, as far as marketing is concerned.
If Obama goes for the 20-year long timetable being marketed as a two year plan, then he will be advancing the cause.
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