US, Russia, and India

Long War: China says it will deliver 50 fighter jets to the Pak Army. The US is holding back the replacement fighters that it would normally be supplying to the Pak Army for political reasons, leaving Pakistan no choice but to accept the Chinese fighters; except for one thing, the Chinese jets suck.

The Pak Army will not want to go to war against India geared up with Chinese weapons. Nevertheless, relations between Pakistan and America are so strained that Pakistan is contemplating an alliance with America's greatest enemy (not counting Al-Qaeda). That it has got this far is a screw-up on America's part.

This brings up the larger issue of how America should deal with Pakistan. As always when I say "should" I mean in a way that would make the stock market go up. And since the stock market is 100% amoral what "should" happen might or might not be morally wrong.

The most bullish approach for America to take would be cementing the nascent alliance with Russia by sharing advanced military technology like missile defense. In return Russia would agree to open supply routes to NATO forces in Afghanistan through its adjacent territory. This way Pakistan would lose its only real leverage over America, the NATO supply routes that run through Pak territory.

America would then increase its drone bombing campaign in the Pak tribal lands and offer advanced military technology to India. Pakistan would soon be begging to rejoin the global American military alliance as well as get serious about purging jihadists within the Pak Army and putting the hammer down on Mullah Omar.

If America were to have a much stronger alliance with India, then it might be able to engineer a pull-back of the India troops on the Pak/India border. This would allow Pakistan to double the troops it has devoted to fighting the jihadists in the tribal lands. So an alliance with India would be a good thing.

An alliance with Russia would be even more significant than one with India. The arc of Islamic violence in the region starts in Afghanistan to the south and goes up through former Soviet territories into Chechnya, all essentially Russian turf. A Russian alliance provides an endgame and eventual victory in the most important part of the Long War.

There are small scale talks going on right now between Russia and America about opening NATO supply routes through Russia into Afghanistan. If these talks make progress, then we are seeing progress in the Long War. Similarly, increased military or diplomatic contact between India and America is a good thing.