Geopolitics Very Shaky

Long War: North Sudan refuses to withdraw its army from the Abyei region. This region has been (and maybe is now) the focal point of the Sudanese Civil War. The South Sudan Army says the north is preparing for "full-scale war." It is extremely dangerous to have the Libya Civil War unresolved while a second and potentially bigger civil war gathers pace in another corner of North Africa. Because of this Britain has decided to deploy Apache attack helicopters into the Libya war, abandoning all pretense of a humanitarian-only mission. Britain is begging America to add some muscle to the Libya war. America refuses, whistling while Rome burns.

Pakistan is asking China to build a naval base in a Pak seaport. If this happens it would be the first serious effort at Chinese global force projection in modern times. It seems that Pakistan is at least thinking about abandoning its alliance with the US and replacing it with an alliance with China. Over the weekend a NATO supply route that runs through Pakistan was blocked again by civilian protesters, although the blockage was easily skirted. More worrisome, a Taliban raid succeeded in destroying advanced American electronic surveillance warplanes at a Pak air base. The Taliban fighters were given insider information to conduct their raid, which speaks of ISI involvement. The alliance with Pakistan has become very wobbly since OBL was killed and civilian American politicians have muddied the water.

Every military conflict over the past four decades has been described by liberals as being like Vietnam. Grenada was like Vietnam. Bosnia was like Vietnam. The aid mission to Somalia was like Vietnam. Etc... etc... But even a broken clock gives an accurate reading twice a day. Investors need to be alert to the Afghan war following the same path as the Vietnam war. If Pakistan were to become hostile to the US and expanded its safe haven status for the Taliban, then we would have a replication of Cambodia's safe haven status for the bad guys in the Vietnam war. America was reluctant to send ground troops into Cambodia for fear of drawing China into the Vietnam war.

The country of Vietnam was bigger than Nazi Germany. Because it was so big, the Vietnam war needed greater military horsepower on the part of the US to win. But Medicare was being created at the time and there was a decision to choose butter over guns. Obama-Care is playing the same role today in the Afghan war.