Thursday, May 19, 2011

After Gaddafi, Then What?

Libya War: The Free Libya Army has pushed Gaddafi's army back into the villages surrounding the rebel held town of Misrata, the key battleground in the war. Gaddafi's soldiers are licking their wounds and digging in after their recent loses, hoping to hold these little villages near Misrata. If Gaddafi's soldiers are pushed out of these villages, then the rebels will start preparing to march on Tripoli.

There are two other battles going on: Along the border with Tunisia and further east near the oil city of Brega where Gaddafi's forces are sitting ducks. NATO war planes have destroyed hundreds of tanks and infantry equipment, on the verge of reducing the Brega loyalist forces into a non-mechanized army.

Last week Gaddafi had clerics on his payroll issue a fatwa supporting his cause, this is a formal religious call for jihad, a prelude to his forces going underground and linking up with Al-Qaeda when and if they lose the conventional war. There already is a very low level guerrilla war in Benghazi, the rebel capitol city. Pro-Gaddafi insurgents are rounded up every day by the Free Libya security forces in the east.

Former elements of Saddam Hussein's government essentially formed Al-Qaeda in Iraq, so it seems likely Gaddafi loyalists would try to do the same if Gaddafi's government falls. The big question is can the oil fields and pipelines be protected from insurgents?

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