War In Mali

Long War: As you will recall I blogged a few days ago about the African Union being willing to wage war against Al-Qaeda (AQIM) in Mali. At the time I said the AU wanted $200 million to crush the bad guys in Mali and we would likely see CIA fingerprints in funding efforts for this proposed war.

Over the weekend the AU announced that the task force destined to launch an invasion into the AQIM stronghold in Mali has a name. It is called the Mali Intervention Force (MIF). Three AU member countries countries are raising forces for the MIF: Nigeria, Niger, and Senegal. Apparently about 3,000 troops have been hived off from these national armies and will soon be given to the nascent MIF, at that point mission planning will get underway. All this makes me think that the CIA has scrounged up enough money to get the project started, maybe $10-20 million if I had to guess.

The AU says that the MIF will not attack AQIM in Mali without UN Security Council approval. Russia and China probably won't allow MIF to go to war in Mali until the Syrian War has come to more of a tipping point and on its way to being resolved one way or the other. It will take a while to get Syria resolved so UN approval will be slow in coming for the proposed Mali War.

But we've seen Petraeus jump over hurdles like this before. If he has an army on the border of Mali and a clear funding source, then he will use that army with UN permission or without.

Boko Haram is an Al-Qaeda franchisee in Nigeria. It is separate from AQIM but obviously a close ally. Boko Haram launched big terror strikes in Nigeria when the existence of MIF was announced. If these terror strikes continue Nigeria is going to want to get MIF fighting in Mali sooner rather than later plus do something more about Boko Haram.

We can see that the Mali War will spread right away into Nigeria and probably other countries as well. I get the feeling that this war will be bigger than most geopolitical analysts are currently projecting.