Long War: The anti-Islamic U-tube video, Innocence of The Muslims, has ignited massive violence and unrest across the Muslim world. It seems to be a wild card, a freak occurrence beyond the control or planning of the good guys. This is not really the case since at any one time there are hundreds of anti-Islamic videos, poems, cartoons, and so forth floating around the web. The bad guys are simply riding trend lines that are well established and predictable.
What we need to do is understand how this latest Long War flare-up fits into the big picture. The first thing to jump out is the assassination by AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) of a US ambassador and other personnel in Libya. AQIM had cells in place inside Libya to take advantage of any opportunity like this video at a moments notice. AQIM controls about 2/3 of Mali, an area bigger than France. AQIM has its own country and is more than a regional power, but a global one. We already knew all that but we have further proof now.
Team Obama is now debating whether or not the CIA should extend its drone program down this side of Africa into Libya and beyond, whether it should take on AQIM or not. In time the US will of course go hammer and tongs after AQIM, but not for a while because we have Obama cowardliness surfacing before the election. I remind you of my prediction that the CIA drone program will someday engulf most of Africa.
The offending video was financed by Egyptian Coptic Christians. This shows that the LW is taking on a more religious tone as the bad guys move down the coasts of Africa toward South Africa, which is a militantly Christian nation with massive military potential and firepower. The more religious the LW gets the hotter and more violent it will get and the risk of big conventional wars increases. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
This means certain energy stocks might do well and in time certain defense stocks will too once America gets past the fiscal cliff.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Saturday, September 8, 2012
CIA Will Do The Voo-doo That They do So Well
Long War: In Syria, several days ago the FSA planted a bomb somewhere in or around Assad's military headquarters. The bomb went off but we only got Assad's version of how effective it was. Of course the bad guys said no Syrian Army leaders were hurt. In fact they said the bomb was planted in a building under construction and did no more damage than twist a few pieces of rebar, implying that the rebels are stupid beyond belief (they aren't). The FSA did not comment on how effective or ineffective the bomb attack was. This was the second of two sophisticated remote detonated bomb attacks targeting Syrian Army top brass. The first attack was a huge success. Probably the second one was also a big success. The first successful bomb attack was followed by bragging. The second was not.
When CIA Director Petraeus was an Army general he would always downplay victories when talking to the media. Victories were called minor setbacks or they were described as achieving "fragile gains, easily reversible." This is his hallmark. In the past Petraeus has usually told us the good guys are barely holding their own or even losing. This is because he doesn't care about stroking his own ego. Instead he uses the media as a weapon to help win wars. The American and European public will be more willing to allow NATO to create a no-fly-zone in Syria if they think the rebels are losing. This is why we didn't hear about top Syrian brass being killed in the latest CIA sophisticated bomb assassination strike.
Meanwhile, the war rages on. Right now, on the ground, in the battlefield city of Aleppo, the war has never been hotter: 150-200 soldiers are being killed everyday in Aleppo. It has been a long time since the Long War has produced a battle of this size. It is evolving quickly. The rebels are shooting down more Syrian aircraft with surface to air manpad missiles. The rebels are mounting heavy caliber machine guns near Syrian airbases and shooting down fighter jets as they take off. Assad's Syrian Army is cutting off water supplies to Aleppo with air strikes.
The Syrian Army has resisted using infantrymen to push into Aleppo until very recently. One of the reasons is that Assad's officers are Alawites (Shiites) and the Syrian Army infantrymen have always been Sunnis. These Sunni infantrymen often leave the ranks of Assad's army to join the Sunni rebels when pushed into combat. But Assad has rebuilt his army with Alawite infantrymen in the past couple months and he can now mount some kind of infantry invasion. He is trying at least and his army is gaining ground in Aleppo over the past couple days with foot sloggers moving into this red hot fire zone.
But the rebels have the capability to push back in Damascus and elsewhere and that is just what they are doing.
The war seems to be spinning out of control with Kurdish rebels launching attacks on Turkey from Syrian bases and sectarian conflict spreading into Lebanon. But hold on a minute and let's go back to that remote controlled sophisticated bomb strike with big CIA fingerprints on it. The rebels didn't brag about the bomb strike. They were good boys and kept their pie-holes shut. What does that mean? The CIA is exerting control over them. CIA control is good. It leads to good things. We don't know what those good things might be but we have faith that those clever bastards in Langley will do the voo-do that they do so well.
When CIA Director Petraeus was an Army general he would always downplay victories when talking to the media. Victories were called minor setbacks or they were described as achieving "fragile gains, easily reversible." This is his hallmark. In the past Petraeus has usually told us the good guys are barely holding their own or even losing. This is because he doesn't care about stroking his own ego. Instead he uses the media as a weapon to help win wars. The American and European public will be more willing to allow NATO to create a no-fly-zone in Syria if they think the rebels are losing. This is why we didn't hear about top Syrian brass being killed in the latest CIA sophisticated bomb assassination strike.
Meanwhile, the war rages on. Right now, on the ground, in the battlefield city of Aleppo, the war has never been hotter: 150-200 soldiers are being killed everyday in Aleppo. It has been a long time since the Long War has produced a battle of this size. It is evolving quickly. The rebels are shooting down more Syrian aircraft with surface to air manpad missiles. The rebels are mounting heavy caliber machine guns near Syrian airbases and shooting down fighter jets as they take off. Assad's Syrian Army is cutting off water supplies to Aleppo with air strikes.
The Syrian Army has resisted using infantrymen to push into Aleppo until very recently. One of the reasons is that Assad's officers are Alawites (Shiites) and the Syrian Army infantrymen have always been Sunnis. These Sunni infantrymen often leave the ranks of Assad's army to join the Sunni rebels when pushed into combat. But Assad has rebuilt his army with Alawite infantrymen in the past couple months and he can now mount some kind of infantry invasion. He is trying at least and his army is gaining ground in Aleppo over the past couple days with foot sloggers moving into this red hot fire zone.
But the rebels have the capability to push back in Damascus and elsewhere and that is just what they are doing.
The war seems to be spinning out of control with Kurdish rebels launching attacks on Turkey from Syrian bases and sectarian conflict spreading into Lebanon. But hold on a minute and let's go back to that remote controlled sophisticated bomb strike with big CIA fingerprints on it. The rebels didn't brag about the bomb strike. They were good boys and kept their pie-holes shut. What does that mean? The CIA is exerting control over them. CIA control is good. It leads to good things. We don't know what those good things might be but we have faith that those clever bastards in Langley will do the voo-do that they do so well.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Good Guys Winning in Syria
Long War: In Syria, the Battle for Aleppo rages on. Assad's Army must take the gateway district of Salaheddine to win this battle. At one point Assad held 50% of Aleppo and all of Salaheddine. Now he holds 40% of the city and the rebels have pushed back into Salaheddine. The rebels have retrenched around the capital city Damascus. The rebels have attacked several of Assad's air bases and captured one. The rebels have destroyed a number of jets on the ground and shot 3 aircraft out of the sky with surface to air missiles.
Assad cannot mount serious ground assaults against rebel formations. Therefore his best tactic is pound them from the air. But if the rebels can take air bases away from him, then he is in for a world of hurt.
Iran is feeling the heat as its puppet faces defeat in Syria. Iran is making all kinds of threats, and in diplomatic double-talk it is saying its nuclear program is way more advanced than anybody thinks and is hinting it will start throwing nukes around one of these days.
The US State department slapped Iran down hard diplomatically when the pariah nation hosted the non-aligned countries conference and then the keynote speakers all made speeches slamming Iran. Ouch. This required careful planning and behind the scenes execution by Hillary Clinton, who continues to kick nine yards of ass despite Obama's cowardliness.
In the rest of the Long War the same old pattern holds where the parts controlled by the CIA are doing well and those controlled by the Pentagon are doing poorly. CIA drone strikes in Yemen destroyed an Al-Qaeda terror team as it was on its way to make a big strike. Obviously then the CIA has moles inside AQAP (Al-Qaeda Yemen).
But in Afghanistan the Taliban has infiltrated the Afghani Army in a big way and insider attacks are at an all time high. Insider attacks keep coming and coming. Five Australian soldiers were killed yesterday and Australia will surely pull out ahead of schedule.
Deep in the south of Afghanistan we are getting hints of activity by Kandahar police chief Razik. He is the CIA installed strongman down there who has taken over some of the drug trade. Razik is beginning to flex his muscle in a small way. If the Taliban's insider attacks do indeed chase NATO out of the country ahead of schedule, then Western public opinion will become totally indifferent to what goes on in Afghanistan. If the cloak of indifference is big enough, then the CIA will be able to use strongmen like Razik to take over the country.
Now consider this, and see if you think we have an example of CIA fingerprints... The beheading campaign that the Taliban launched after the CIA killed several top bad guy leaders seems to have slipped away from the Taliban upper circle. Rogue and very young Taliban fighters are now beheading children, sparking outrage among Afghani civilians and tarnishing the Taliban's image.
If the CIA were to be left completely alone, if NATO, the Western NGOs, and all the foreign do-gooders were to leave, then the spooks would be able to dust off their dirty tricks book and take complete control. Right after the book is dusted off it will get ugly. But then it will start looking better.
Assad cannot mount serious ground assaults against rebel formations. Therefore his best tactic is pound them from the air. But if the rebels can take air bases away from him, then he is in for a world of hurt.
Iran is feeling the heat as its puppet faces defeat in Syria. Iran is making all kinds of threats, and in diplomatic double-talk it is saying its nuclear program is way more advanced than anybody thinks and is hinting it will start throwing nukes around one of these days.
The US State department slapped Iran down hard diplomatically when the pariah nation hosted the non-aligned countries conference and then the keynote speakers all made speeches slamming Iran. Ouch. This required careful planning and behind the scenes execution by Hillary Clinton, who continues to kick nine yards of ass despite Obama's cowardliness.
In the rest of the Long War the same old pattern holds where the parts controlled by the CIA are doing well and those controlled by the Pentagon are doing poorly. CIA drone strikes in Yemen destroyed an Al-Qaeda terror team as it was on its way to make a big strike. Obviously then the CIA has moles inside AQAP (Al-Qaeda Yemen).
But in Afghanistan the Taliban has infiltrated the Afghani Army in a big way and insider attacks are at an all time high. Insider attacks keep coming and coming. Five Australian soldiers were killed yesterday and Australia will surely pull out ahead of schedule.
Deep in the south of Afghanistan we are getting hints of activity by Kandahar police chief Razik. He is the CIA installed strongman down there who has taken over some of the drug trade. Razik is beginning to flex his muscle in a small way. If the Taliban's insider attacks do indeed chase NATO out of the country ahead of schedule, then Western public opinion will become totally indifferent to what goes on in Afghanistan. If the cloak of indifference is big enough, then the CIA will be able to use strongmen like Razik to take over the country.
Now consider this, and see if you think we have an example of CIA fingerprints... The beheading campaign that the Taliban launched after the CIA killed several top bad guy leaders seems to have slipped away from the Taliban upper circle. Rogue and very young Taliban fighters are now beheading children, sparking outrage among Afghani civilians and tarnishing the Taliban's image.
If the CIA were to be left completely alone, if NATO, the Western NGOs, and all the foreign do-gooders were to leave, then the spooks would be able to dust off their dirty tricks book and take complete control. Right after the book is dusted off it will get ugly. But then it will start looking better.
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