Charts: The market is in a rally attempt. It is not in a rally. It needs to consolidate its gains for about 4 days and then have a follow through day (up in bigger volume than the early stages of the attempt) to have an actual technical rally, which will end the correction. The S&P 500 has inched up above its 200-day moving average. It needs to hold above this level for a technical rally to take hold.
Fundamentals: Some in our core group are poo-pooing the damage that may occur if the US economy drives off the fiscal cliff, which is to say that Congress does nothing and allows scheduled spending cuts and tax increases to occur. Here is the best way to think about the fiscal cliff: forget the spending cuts, they are mostly smoke and mirrors, the only cuts that are real will hit the Pentagon. Instead let's simplify the whole issue by focusing on the tax increases. If we drive off the cliff, then $400 billion in new taxes will hit in 2013. Maybe nothing bad will happen. Also, maybe pigs can fly. No laws of aerodynamics are violated with the notion of pigs flying: it is within the realm of possibility. The same is true of this gargantuan tax increase. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. Okay, let's get past anything is possible. In 1938 a similar tax increases hit the US economy as it was recovering from the Great Depression. This sent the US economy back into a tail spin. In Europe similar tax increases under the auspices of Austerity have plunged that continent back into recession. Every historical example that we can name tells us that a big tax increases right now will smash the US economy back into a savage recession.
Long War: The fiscal cliff generates real cuts to the Pentagon, $50 billion in 2013. The Pentagon has no discretion over where to cut. Instead the cuts are designed to slash the most vital programs and weapon systems, not (for example) health care for retired veterans (which wouldn't hurt military capability). The cuts are designed to cripple national defense. The cuts are like a man kicking himself as hard as he can in the balls. They were designed this way to make the Republicans bow to the will of the Democrats. This shows how stupid and weak the Republicans are but more to the point if these cuts go through America will suffer huge losses in the Long War and China will roar like the Great Dragon it is. Just like firing CIA Director Petraeus, these potential cuts show how the awesomely powerful USA can only be hurt by one great power on Earth: the awesomely powerful USA, our own worst enemy.
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
Fiscal Cliff
Charts: The market has been in a correction since late Sept. It is now in a rally attempt. The correction reached about a 10% loss on most of the major indexes. That doesn't sound too bad, except these indexes all plunged below their 200 day moving averages; so the correction has been worse than you might think from a chartist view point.
Fundamentals: Right before the election the market thought Obama and the Republicans would extend most of the Bush tax cuts and then try to leisurely hammer out a deal without the January fiscal cliff deadline breathing down their backs. The market knew that there was no way a deal could be reached by January. An extension would give both sides room to maneuver. The market wanted that extension. But Obama got super cocky and tried to hammer out a deal favorable to his ultra-left wing agenda without an extension. Obama thought he could put a gun to the Republicans' head and get everything he ever dreamed of right now, all at once. But the market is more powerful than Obama and it seems that the market will get its way, we hope, which is to say an extension on the tax cuts. If not, then the correction will turn into a bear market and the economy will drive off the fiscal cliff.
Spain is saying it will create a host of free trade deals with Latin American countries. The recovery is dependent on all major economies opening up and creating free trade accords. Austerity, fiscal discipline, government spending policies, none of these make any difference in the medium and long run. All that maters is free trade. That is the only thing that will keep the recovery going at this point.
Long War: CIA Director Petraeus was canned for having an affair, the greatest military mind of our generation. In WW II George Patton was canned for slapping a sick soldier. Patton was the greatest military mind of that generation. America is the only great power in history to eliminate its best military leaders during crucial wars for nonsensical reasons.
But its not as simple as all that. In my last blog I said that the killing of US personnel on Sept. 11 in Libya proved that the CIA was way more involved in the Libyan Civl War than was commonly assumed, way more involved than Congress or the White House had authorized. And Langley is more involved in the Syrian Civil War than they are supposed to be. Because of the hot juicy sex scandal nobody is digging into Langley going rogue. So Petraeus quitting or getting fired has a very good side effect. It is almost too big of a conicidence to swallow. Why did he really quit? Analyzing the CIA is like reading tea leaves, dificult to the point of impossible. Langley is home to the greatest liars and con men on Earth. We need them to keep lying and those lies need to be believed. More important, the CIA must never have civilian oversight. If the current Deputy Director is made Director, then we are out of the woods.
Fundamentals: Right before the election the market thought Obama and the Republicans would extend most of the Bush tax cuts and then try to leisurely hammer out a deal without the January fiscal cliff deadline breathing down their backs. The market knew that there was no way a deal could be reached by January. An extension would give both sides room to maneuver. The market wanted that extension. But Obama got super cocky and tried to hammer out a deal favorable to his ultra-left wing agenda without an extension. Obama thought he could put a gun to the Republicans' head and get everything he ever dreamed of right now, all at once. But the market is more powerful than Obama and it seems that the market will get its way, we hope, which is to say an extension on the tax cuts. If not, then the correction will turn into a bear market and the economy will drive off the fiscal cliff.
Spain is saying it will create a host of free trade deals with Latin American countries. The recovery is dependent on all major economies opening up and creating free trade accords. Austerity, fiscal discipline, government spending policies, none of these make any difference in the medium and long run. All that maters is free trade. That is the only thing that will keep the recovery going at this point.
Long War: CIA Director Petraeus was canned for having an affair, the greatest military mind of our generation. In WW II George Patton was canned for slapping a sick soldier. Patton was the greatest military mind of that generation. America is the only great power in history to eliminate its best military leaders during crucial wars for nonsensical reasons.
But its not as simple as all that. In my last blog I said that the killing of US personnel on Sept. 11 in Libya proved that the CIA was way more involved in the Libyan Civl War than was commonly assumed, way more involved than Congress or the White House had authorized. And Langley is more involved in the Syrian Civil War than they are supposed to be. Because of the hot juicy sex scandal nobody is digging into Langley going rogue. So Petraeus quitting or getting fired has a very good side effect. It is almost too big of a conicidence to swallow. Why did he really quit? Analyzing the CIA is like reading tea leaves, dificult to the point of impossible. Langley is home to the greatest liars and con men on Earth. We need them to keep lying and those lies need to be believed. More important, the CIA must never have civilian oversight. If the current Deputy Director is made Director, then we are out of the woods.
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Long War: There was a lot of media hand wringing when AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) attacked the US Consulate in Libya and killed what we thought at the time were State Department employees. We now know most of the Americans killed were CIA, in fact most were ex-Navy SEALs. The State Department mission in Libya was and is a front for the CIA. From all this we can deduce that Dave is correct in his conjecture that the CIA was essetially running the Libyan War and remains much more active there than the media would have us believe.
And this is true in the Syria Civil War as well. The CIA and the rebels are winning in Syria. It is a scary thought, but Al-Qaeda is winning in Syria also. The CIA is not only using Al-Qaeda in Syria but in Iraq as well. Iraq is aligned with Iran and Syria. The CIA told us openly it has pulled all operatives out of Iraq. After it did that Al-Qaeda in Iraq launched a huge terror campaign. But the terrorism was and is aimed against a non-ally (sort of an enemy, okay a frenemy) of America. Iraq deserves to get chewed up by Al-Qaeda and after getting mauled for a while they seemingly stopped Iranian overflights of their country. The overflights were carrying weapons.
I read a lot into the CIA having a much bigger presence in Libya than they admit. It is also significant that there is no media follow up to this revelation. Nobody cares what the CIA does. This is good news. Under the cover of darkness Langley will win the Long War. If everybody continues to look the other way, there is nothing they can't do.
And this is true in the Syria Civil War as well. The CIA and the rebels are winning in Syria. It is a scary thought, but Al-Qaeda is winning in Syria also. The CIA is not only using Al-Qaeda in Syria but in Iraq as well. Iraq is aligned with Iran and Syria. The CIA told us openly it has pulled all operatives out of Iraq. After it did that Al-Qaeda in Iraq launched a huge terror campaign. But the terrorism was and is aimed against a non-ally (sort of an enemy, okay a frenemy) of America. Iraq deserves to get chewed up by Al-Qaeda and after getting mauled for a while they seemingly stopped Iranian overflights of their country. The overflights were carrying weapons.
I read a lot into the CIA having a much bigger presence in Libya than they admit. It is also significant that there is no media follow up to this revelation. Nobody cares what the CIA does. This is good news. Under the cover of darkness Langley will win the Long War. If everybody continues to look the other way, there is nothing they can't do.
Monday, September 17, 2012
Long War Wild Card? Not Really
Long War: The anti-Islamic U-tube video, Innocence of The Muslims, has ignited massive violence and unrest across the Muslim world. It seems to be a wild card, a freak occurrence beyond the control or planning of the good guys. This is not really the case since at any one time there are hundreds of anti-Islamic videos, poems, cartoons, and so forth floating around the web. The bad guys are simply riding trend lines that are well established and predictable.
What we need to do is understand how this latest Long War flare-up fits into the big picture. The first thing to jump out is the assassination by AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) of a US ambassador and other personnel in Libya. AQIM had cells in place inside Libya to take advantage of any opportunity like this video at a moments notice. AQIM controls about 2/3 of Mali, an area bigger than France. AQIM has its own country and is more than a regional power, but a global one. We already knew all that but we have further proof now.
Team Obama is now debating whether or not the CIA should extend its drone program down this side of Africa into Libya and beyond, whether it should take on AQIM or not. In time the US will of course go hammer and tongs after AQIM, but not for a while because we have Obama cowardliness surfacing before the election. I remind you of my prediction that the CIA drone program will someday engulf most of Africa.
The offending video was financed by Egyptian Coptic Christians. This shows that the LW is taking on a more religious tone as the bad guys move down the coasts of Africa toward South Africa, which is a militantly Christian nation with massive military potential and firepower. The more religious the LW gets the hotter and more violent it will get and the risk of big conventional wars increases. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
This means certain energy stocks might do well and in time certain defense stocks will too once America gets past the fiscal cliff.
What we need to do is understand how this latest Long War flare-up fits into the big picture. The first thing to jump out is the assassination by AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) of a US ambassador and other personnel in Libya. AQIM had cells in place inside Libya to take advantage of any opportunity like this video at a moments notice. AQIM controls about 2/3 of Mali, an area bigger than France. AQIM has its own country and is more than a regional power, but a global one. We already knew all that but we have further proof now.
Team Obama is now debating whether or not the CIA should extend its drone program down this side of Africa into Libya and beyond, whether it should take on AQIM or not. In time the US will of course go hammer and tongs after AQIM, but not for a while because we have Obama cowardliness surfacing before the election. I remind you of my prediction that the CIA drone program will someday engulf most of Africa.
The offending video was financed by Egyptian Coptic Christians. This shows that the LW is taking on a more religious tone as the bad guys move down the coasts of Africa toward South Africa, which is a militantly Christian nation with massive military potential and firepower. The more religious the LW gets the hotter and more violent it will get and the risk of big conventional wars increases. It's going to get worse before it gets better.
This means certain energy stocks might do well and in time certain defense stocks will too once America gets past the fiscal cliff.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
CIA Will Do The Voo-doo That They do So Well
Long War: In Syria, several days ago the FSA planted a bomb somewhere in or around Assad's military headquarters. The bomb went off but we only got Assad's version of how effective it was. Of course the bad guys said no Syrian Army leaders were hurt. In fact they said the bomb was planted in a building under construction and did no more damage than twist a few pieces of rebar, implying that the rebels are stupid beyond belief (they aren't). The FSA did not comment on how effective or ineffective the bomb attack was. This was the second of two sophisticated remote detonated bomb attacks targeting Syrian Army top brass. The first attack was a huge success. Probably the second one was also a big success. The first successful bomb attack was followed by bragging. The second was not.
When CIA Director Petraeus was an Army general he would always downplay victories when talking to the media. Victories were called minor setbacks or they were described as achieving "fragile gains, easily reversible." This is his hallmark. In the past Petraeus has usually told us the good guys are barely holding their own or even losing. This is because he doesn't care about stroking his own ego. Instead he uses the media as a weapon to help win wars. The American and European public will be more willing to allow NATO to create a no-fly-zone in Syria if they think the rebels are losing. This is why we didn't hear about top Syrian brass being killed in the latest CIA sophisticated bomb assassination strike.
Meanwhile, the war rages on. Right now, on the ground, in the battlefield city of Aleppo, the war has never been hotter: 150-200 soldiers are being killed everyday in Aleppo. It has been a long time since the Long War has produced a battle of this size. It is evolving quickly. The rebels are shooting down more Syrian aircraft with surface to air manpad missiles. The rebels are mounting heavy caliber machine guns near Syrian airbases and shooting down fighter jets as they take off. Assad's Syrian Army is cutting off water supplies to Aleppo with air strikes.
The Syrian Army has resisted using infantrymen to push into Aleppo until very recently. One of the reasons is that Assad's officers are Alawites (Shiites) and the Syrian Army infantrymen have always been Sunnis. These Sunni infantrymen often leave the ranks of Assad's army to join the Sunni rebels when pushed into combat. But Assad has rebuilt his army with Alawite infantrymen in the past couple months and he can now mount some kind of infantry invasion. He is trying at least and his army is gaining ground in Aleppo over the past couple days with foot sloggers moving into this red hot fire zone.
But the rebels have the capability to push back in Damascus and elsewhere and that is just what they are doing.
The war seems to be spinning out of control with Kurdish rebels launching attacks on Turkey from Syrian bases and sectarian conflict spreading into Lebanon. But hold on a minute and let's go back to that remote controlled sophisticated bomb strike with big CIA fingerprints on it. The rebels didn't brag about the bomb strike. They were good boys and kept their pie-holes shut. What does that mean? The CIA is exerting control over them. CIA control is good. It leads to good things. We don't know what those good things might be but we have faith that those clever bastards in Langley will do the voo-do that they do so well.
When CIA Director Petraeus was an Army general he would always downplay victories when talking to the media. Victories were called minor setbacks or they were described as achieving "fragile gains, easily reversible." This is his hallmark. In the past Petraeus has usually told us the good guys are barely holding their own or even losing. This is because he doesn't care about stroking his own ego. Instead he uses the media as a weapon to help win wars. The American and European public will be more willing to allow NATO to create a no-fly-zone in Syria if they think the rebels are losing. This is why we didn't hear about top Syrian brass being killed in the latest CIA sophisticated bomb assassination strike.
Meanwhile, the war rages on. Right now, on the ground, in the battlefield city of Aleppo, the war has never been hotter: 150-200 soldiers are being killed everyday in Aleppo. It has been a long time since the Long War has produced a battle of this size. It is evolving quickly. The rebels are shooting down more Syrian aircraft with surface to air manpad missiles. The rebels are mounting heavy caliber machine guns near Syrian airbases and shooting down fighter jets as they take off. Assad's Syrian Army is cutting off water supplies to Aleppo with air strikes.
The Syrian Army has resisted using infantrymen to push into Aleppo until very recently. One of the reasons is that Assad's officers are Alawites (Shiites) and the Syrian Army infantrymen have always been Sunnis. These Sunni infantrymen often leave the ranks of Assad's army to join the Sunni rebels when pushed into combat. But Assad has rebuilt his army with Alawite infantrymen in the past couple months and he can now mount some kind of infantry invasion. He is trying at least and his army is gaining ground in Aleppo over the past couple days with foot sloggers moving into this red hot fire zone.
But the rebels have the capability to push back in Damascus and elsewhere and that is just what they are doing.
The war seems to be spinning out of control with Kurdish rebels launching attacks on Turkey from Syrian bases and sectarian conflict spreading into Lebanon. But hold on a minute and let's go back to that remote controlled sophisticated bomb strike with big CIA fingerprints on it. The rebels didn't brag about the bomb strike. They were good boys and kept their pie-holes shut. What does that mean? The CIA is exerting control over them. CIA control is good. It leads to good things. We don't know what those good things might be but we have faith that those clever bastards in Langley will do the voo-do that they do so well.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
Good Guys Winning in Syria
Long War: In Syria, the Battle for Aleppo rages on. Assad's Army must take the gateway district of Salaheddine to win this battle. At one point Assad held 50% of Aleppo and all of Salaheddine. Now he holds 40% of the city and the rebels have pushed back into Salaheddine. The rebels have retrenched around the capital city Damascus. The rebels have attacked several of Assad's air bases and captured one. The rebels have destroyed a number of jets on the ground and shot 3 aircraft out of the sky with surface to air missiles.
Assad cannot mount serious ground assaults against rebel formations. Therefore his best tactic is pound them from the air. But if the rebels can take air bases away from him, then he is in for a world of hurt.
Iran is feeling the heat as its puppet faces defeat in Syria. Iran is making all kinds of threats, and in diplomatic double-talk it is saying its nuclear program is way more advanced than anybody thinks and is hinting it will start throwing nukes around one of these days.
The US State department slapped Iran down hard diplomatically when the pariah nation hosted the non-aligned countries conference and then the keynote speakers all made speeches slamming Iran. Ouch. This required careful planning and behind the scenes execution by Hillary Clinton, who continues to kick nine yards of ass despite Obama's cowardliness.
In the rest of the Long War the same old pattern holds where the parts controlled by the CIA are doing well and those controlled by the Pentagon are doing poorly. CIA drone strikes in Yemen destroyed an Al-Qaeda terror team as it was on its way to make a big strike. Obviously then the CIA has moles inside AQAP (Al-Qaeda Yemen).
But in Afghanistan the Taliban has infiltrated the Afghani Army in a big way and insider attacks are at an all time high. Insider attacks keep coming and coming. Five Australian soldiers were killed yesterday and Australia will surely pull out ahead of schedule.
Deep in the south of Afghanistan we are getting hints of activity by Kandahar police chief Razik. He is the CIA installed strongman down there who has taken over some of the drug trade. Razik is beginning to flex his muscle in a small way. If the Taliban's insider attacks do indeed chase NATO out of the country ahead of schedule, then Western public opinion will become totally indifferent to what goes on in Afghanistan. If the cloak of indifference is big enough, then the CIA will be able to use strongmen like Razik to take over the country.
Now consider this, and see if you think we have an example of CIA fingerprints... The beheading campaign that the Taliban launched after the CIA killed several top bad guy leaders seems to have slipped away from the Taliban upper circle. Rogue and very young Taliban fighters are now beheading children, sparking outrage among Afghani civilians and tarnishing the Taliban's image.
If the CIA were to be left completely alone, if NATO, the Western NGOs, and all the foreign do-gooders were to leave, then the spooks would be able to dust off their dirty tricks book and take complete control. Right after the book is dusted off it will get ugly. But then it will start looking better.
Assad cannot mount serious ground assaults against rebel formations. Therefore his best tactic is pound them from the air. But if the rebels can take air bases away from him, then he is in for a world of hurt.
Iran is feeling the heat as its puppet faces defeat in Syria. Iran is making all kinds of threats, and in diplomatic double-talk it is saying its nuclear program is way more advanced than anybody thinks and is hinting it will start throwing nukes around one of these days.
The US State department slapped Iran down hard diplomatically when the pariah nation hosted the non-aligned countries conference and then the keynote speakers all made speeches slamming Iran. Ouch. This required careful planning and behind the scenes execution by Hillary Clinton, who continues to kick nine yards of ass despite Obama's cowardliness.
In the rest of the Long War the same old pattern holds where the parts controlled by the CIA are doing well and those controlled by the Pentagon are doing poorly. CIA drone strikes in Yemen destroyed an Al-Qaeda terror team as it was on its way to make a big strike. Obviously then the CIA has moles inside AQAP (Al-Qaeda Yemen).
But in Afghanistan the Taliban has infiltrated the Afghani Army in a big way and insider attacks are at an all time high. Insider attacks keep coming and coming. Five Australian soldiers were killed yesterday and Australia will surely pull out ahead of schedule.
Deep in the south of Afghanistan we are getting hints of activity by Kandahar police chief Razik. He is the CIA installed strongman down there who has taken over some of the drug trade. Razik is beginning to flex his muscle in a small way. If the Taliban's insider attacks do indeed chase NATO out of the country ahead of schedule, then Western public opinion will become totally indifferent to what goes on in Afghanistan. If the cloak of indifference is big enough, then the CIA will be able to use strongmen like Razik to take over the country.
Now consider this, and see if you think we have an example of CIA fingerprints... The beheading campaign that the Taliban launched after the CIA killed several top bad guy leaders seems to have slipped away from the Taliban upper circle. Rogue and very young Taliban fighters are now beheading children, sparking outrage among Afghani civilians and tarnishing the Taliban's image.
If the CIA were to be left completely alone, if NATO, the Western NGOs, and all the foreign do-gooders were to leave, then the spooks would be able to dust off their dirty tricks book and take complete control. Right after the book is dusted off it will get ugly. But then it will start looking better.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Obama is Cowardly But Intelligent
Long War: There are only two countries that have genuine overseas military empires: America and Iran. America has about 10,000 overseas military bases and if we count Iran's proxies (such as Hezbollah) then it has about 200. It is fair to say that America's empire is fifty times stronger and larger than Iran's. And yet America can still lose to its much weaker opponent because America is subject to cowardliness in its top leadership.
Iran is now admitting that it is sending special forces soldiers to fight for its imperial puppet, Assad, in the Syrian Civil War. America also has special forces soldiers fighting in this war, although it does not admit to this fact. The two empires are at war with each other.
America cannot let Iran get away with such direct support of Assad or the global capitalist structure will suffer. The answer is a no-fly-zone. Recently Turkey has said forcefully that a buffer zone must be created within Syria for refugees escaping Assad. Hillary Clinton and her State Department are backing Turkey's efforts to create a buffer zone. This is step one toward creating a no-fly-zone. If the buffer zone materializes, then the no-fly-zone will be right behind (a good thing).
Hillary is dragging Obama forward on the no-fly-zone even though the President is kicking, screaming, and pulling out his hair like a spoiled brat. Probably Petraeus is pressuring the President as well.
The CIA can hammer Obama by pointing to its recent monster victories in Afpak with the killing of the top Haqqani leader and top Pak Taliban leader. This will help pressure Obama. It looks like the two top bad guys did indeed choke on hellfire missiles as reported in my last blog because the Taliban is going berserk. Both the Pak Taliban and the Afghan Taliban are on a psychotic beheading campaign, lopping off the heads of anybody and everybody that they can get their hands on. This crazed behavior tells us that the bad guys are deeply frightened. At least some of the bad guy's protectors within the ISI (Pak intelligence) have turned and now support the CIA. Petraeus must have really turned the screws on them.
So the global war rages on. It is being fought in the distant battlefields of the Islamic world and inside the mind of the cowardly but highly intelligent President of the United States. We need to win in both arenas.
Iran is now admitting that it is sending special forces soldiers to fight for its imperial puppet, Assad, in the Syrian Civil War. America also has special forces soldiers fighting in this war, although it does not admit to this fact. The two empires are at war with each other.
America cannot let Iran get away with such direct support of Assad or the global capitalist structure will suffer. The answer is a no-fly-zone. Recently Turkey has said forcefully that a buffer zone must be created within Syria for refugees escaping Assad. Hillary Clinton and her State Department are backing Turkey's efforts to create a buffer zone. This is step one toward creating a no-fly-zone. If the buffer zone materializes, then the no-fly-zone will be right behind (a good thing).
Hillary is dragging Obama forward on the no-fly-zone even though the President is kicking, screaming, and pulling out his hair like a spoiled brat. Probably Petraeus is pressuring the President as well.
The CIA can hammer Obama by pointing to its recent monster victories in Afpak with the killing of the top Haqqani leader and top Pak Taliban leader. This will help pressure Obama. It looks like the two top bad guys did indeed choke on hellfire missiles as reported in my last blog because the Taliban is going berserk. Both the Pak Taliban and the Afghan Taliban are on a psychotic beheading campaign, lopping off the heads of anybody and everybody that they can get their hands on. This crazed behavior tells us that the bad guys are deeply frightened. At least some of the bad guy's protectors within the ISI (Pak intelligence) have turned and now support the CIA. Petraeus must have really turned the screws on them.
So the global war rages on. It is being fought in the distant battlefields of the Islamic world and inside the mind of the cowardly but highly intelligent President of the United States. We need to win in both arenas.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Hell On Earth, Courtesy of Raytheon
Long War: Several weeks ago CIA Director Petraeus held a meeting in Langley with the heads of ISI (Pak Intelligence). Shortly after that meeting a massive drone blitz began in the Pak tribal lands. It was the biggest drone blitz ever, with multiple drone strikes occurring on the same day, day after day. Not only was it large in scope, it was also different than previous drone strikes in that it was targeted. The strikes followed a pattern, like a dragnet narrowing down on a single target. Today we learned what that target was. We are told that drone fired hellfire missiles killed the Haqqai Network's operational commander, Badruddin. The Haqqani Network is the most powerful of all the Taliban's and its operational commander the most wanted man on the planet. If this is verfied, then the CIA has scored a huge victory.
While all this was going on there has also been a targeted NATO air strike blitz following a similar pattern in Afghanistan resulting at the same time in the death of Pak Taliban logistics commander Dadullah, also one of the most dangerous men on the planet. The Pak Taliban (along with Al-Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, and the Afghan Taliban) is one of the big four jihadist organizations, the baddest of the bad. Killing Dadullah is another big victory.
What did the CIA Director say to the ISI leaders? Can we guess? How about... "I will kill all your children and grandchildren if you don't give up Badruddin and Dadullah." Do you think he might have said something along those lines and then go on to prove that he means business? Probably.
Now consider another item... So called Green on Blue killing in Afghanistan are at an all time high. The Pentagon is now calling Green on Blue killings "Insider Killing" either way this is when a Taliban infiltrator within the Afghan Army kills a single NATO soldier or several soldiers. This is how most NATO soldiers meet their death, not in actual combat. Infiltrating an organization like an army is an intelligence agency activity. Preventing such an infiltration is an intelligence agency activity.
The entire Long War is an intelligence agency activity. That's why we should get the US Army and USMC out of all LW hot spots and turn the global war over to Special Forces and CIA. That's why the CIA should have complete operational command over all Special Forces. That's why, for the first time, we have the right person in the position of CIA Director.
And this transition is occuring. More jihadist are dying from the thermal shock wave of drone fired hellfire missiles than any other cause in Afpak. Whether you adhere to one of the three Abrahamic faiths or not, the Jihadist do, and the hellfire missile therefore has religious significance for them at least. The hellfire's thermal shock wave is calibrated to exactly replicate the ambient temperature of hell itself, which is 6500 degrees. So the engineers at Raytheon have designed this missile to give the jihadists a taste here on Earth of the place that they are destined to spend eternity. That's why they call it "hellfire."
While all this was going on there has also been a targeted NATO air strike blitz following a similar pattern in Afghanistan resulting at the same time in the death of Pak Taliban logistics commander Dadullah, also one of the most dangerous men on the planet. The Pak Taliban (along with Al-Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, and the Afghan Taliban) is one of the big four jihadist organizations, the baddest of the bad. Killing Dadullah is another big victory.
What did the CIA Director say to the ISI leaders? Can we guess? How about... "I will kill all your children and grandchildren if you don't give up Badruddin and Dadullah." Do you think he might have said something along those lines and then go on to prove that he means business? Probably.
Now consider another item... So called Green on Blue killing in Afghanistan are at an all time high. The Pentagon is now calling Green on Blue killings "Insider Killing" either way this is when a Taliban infiltrator within the Afghan Army kills a single NATO soldier or several soldiers. This is how most NATO soldiers meet their death, not in actual combat. Infiltrating an organization like an army is an intelligence agency activity. Preventing such an infiltration is an intelligence agency activity.
The entire Long War is an intelligence agency activity. That's why we should get the US Army and USMC out of all LW hot spots and turn the global war over to Special Forces and CIA. That's why the CIA should have complete operational command over all Special Forces. That's why, for the first time, we have the right person in the position of CIA Director.
And this transition is occuring. More jihadist are dying from the thermal shock wave of drone fired hellfire missiles than any other cause in Afpak. Whether you adhere to one of the three Abrahamic faiths or not, the Jihadist do, and the hellfire missile therefore has religious significance for them at least. The hellfire's thermal shock wave is calibrated to exactly replicate the ambient temperature of hell itself, which is 6500 degrees. So the engineers at Raytheon have designed this missile to give the jihadists a taste here on Earth of the place that they are destined to spend eternity. That's why they call it "hellfire."
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
The Truth Shall Set You Free. Not!
Charts: Round number support is key right now for the major indexes. The S&P 500 is finding significant support at 1400. The Nasdaq is finding support at 3000. However the small cap Russell 2000 just lost support at 800. Overall action is flat with a slight upward bias. Volume was very low today, which is good for a flat market.
Fundamentals: The strong rally that started with the ECB promising another round of QE (printing money out of thin air to buy bonds) is fading because the ECB hasn't started QE yet. The market loves QE even though it doesn't work. The Bank of England is getting ready for QE4, yet the British economy sucks. Japan is on something like QE20, its economy really sucks. QE does two things, it jacks up the price of commodities and it jacks up stocks. Higher stock prices creates a wealth effect which is good. Higher commodities obviously hurts economic growth. The two cancel out, so QE ends up doing nothing. It is being used as a substitute for free market reform. There is no substitute.
Long War: The civilian government of Egypt is busy sacking army officials. Normally you'd think that is bad, but the Egyptian Army has gone to war against Al-Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula, which should have been done a long time ago. Something therefore is going right in Egypt. As the good guys dig into the Sinai they are discovering that Al-Qaeda is much stronger than they thought, so strong that the bad guys could probably start a war with Israel and drag Egypt into it. This is why Egypt is attacking.
In Syria, the rebels are grimly holding on in Aleppo but they are opening a new front in the oil producing region of the country. Assad cannot afford to lose any oil fields, so if this new offensive makes headway, then bad guy troops will have to be funneled out of Aleppo. Good chess playing on somebody's part.
More and more experienced fighters from Libya are turning up in the ranks of the FSA, training, leading, inspiring. Here we have another example of CIA fingerprints, and they are well disguised prints, hard for anybody to fathom.
It pays to ponder the very nature of the CIA. Imagine you are walking through the marble clad headquarters in Langley. Overhead you will see an inscription, the CIA motto, which is from the Bible: The Truth Shall Set You Free. Not far from this inscription are a few rows of stars, representing all the CIA operatives that have died in the line of duty. There are only about 50 or so stars. A number that is laughably low, absurdly low, an obvious lie. A lie right next to the motto about truth. Here we have an existential message concerning the world's premier intelligence agency: We are lying to you, but its for your own good. So shut your pie-hole, look the other way, leave us alone, and let us do our thing.
Fundamentals: The strong rally that started with the ECB promising another round of QE (printing money out of thin air to buy bonds) is fading because the ECB hasn't started QE yet. The market loves QE even though it doesn't work. The Bank of England is getting ready for QE4, yet the British economy sucks. Japan is on something like QE20, its economy really sucks. QE does two things, it jacks up the price of commodities and it jacks up stocks. Higher stock prices creates a wealth effect which is good. Higher commodities obviously hurts economic growth. The two cancel out, so QE ends up doing nothing. It is being used as a substitute for free market reform. There is no substitute.
Long War: The civilian government of Egypt is busy sacking army officials. Normally you'd think that is bad, but the Egyptian Army has gone to war against Al-Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula, which should have been done a long time ago. Something therefore is going right in Egypt. As the good guys dig into the Sinai they are discovering that Al-Qaeda is much stronger than they thought, so strong that the bad guys could probably start a war with Israel and drag Egypt into it. This is why Egypt is attacking.
In Syria, the rebels are grimly holding on in Aleppo but they are opening a new front in the oil producing region of the country. Assad cannot afford to lose any oil fields, so if this new offensive makes headway, then bad guy troops will have to be funneled out of Aleppo. Good chess playing on somebody's part.
More and more experienced fighters from Libya are turning up in the ranks of the FSA, training, leading, inspiring. Here we have another example of CIA fingerprints, and they are well disguised prints, hard for anybody to fathom.
It pays to ponder the very nature of the CIA. Imagine you are walking through the marble clad headquarters in Langley. Overhead you will see an inscription, the CIA motto, which is from the Bible: The Truth Shall Set You Free. Not far from this inscription are a few rows of stars, representing all the CIA operatives that have died in the line of duty. There are only about 50 or so stars. A number that is laughably low, absurdly low, an obvious lie. A lie right next to the motto about truth. Here we have an existential message concerning the world's premier intelligence agency: We are lying to you, but its for your own good. So shut your pie-hole, look the other way, leave us alone, and let us do our thing.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Moral Superiority Part II
Syrian Civil War: The FSA rebels (good guys) have downed a Syrian fighter jet with a manpad missile. So the CIA is almost certainly giving the rebels surface to air missiles. If this is true, then the media will eventually sleuth out that the missiles are being paid for by Qatar, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia. This doesn't mean that the missiles aren't being green lighted by Langley, just that tracks are being laid to disguise the ultimate source.
The rebels say that Al-Qaeda is indeed fighting on their side but Jihadist brigades are isolated from other brigades and are in effect quarantined from the bulk of the FSA to avoid infection, in an almost medical fashion. The idea is that once Assad is overthrown there will be a second war against Al-Qaeda and this quarantine structure will make it possible to win that war. The FSA needs Al-Qaeda fighters because they are the best of the best and bring crucial skills to the battlefield. Of course this is dancing with the devil and of course it is a dangerous game to play. The Long War is a dangerous game to play and without good bad guys we would be in worse shape than we already are.
Hillary Clinton and Turkey's top leaders are talking about opening a no-fly-zone over Syria. If this were to happen, then Assad would be defeated within a few months. It is 100% the right thing to do. The Jordanian Army has already clashed with Assad's Syrian Army once, the longer this war drags on the wider it will become until it starts consuming oil fields and pushes the global economy into a recession. It is impossible to overstate how positive an American-Turkish no-fly-zone would be. Hillary then has to somehow infuse Obama with a set. This is a big challenge because Obama runs scared before elections.
Assad's army has backed off on trying to take the key Salaheddine district with a massive infantry assault. He is once again standing back and pounding it with heavy weapons. Assad has taken about 90% of Salaheddine and about 50% of Aleppo as a whole. I remind you that the Battle of Aleppo is the most important Long War battle by a huge margin right now. It is everything.
Assad seemingly cannot put soldiers up one for one against the rebels for any length of time because the rebels are willing to die for their cause and Assad's soldiers are not. The rebels have gigantic moral superiority. Assad advantage is the possession of fighter jets, helicopters, artillery, armored personal carriers, and tanks; none of which the rebels have. But setting up a no-fly-zone or giving the rebels advanced manpad missiles will help eliminate Assad's advantage. Small portable missiles are problematic because Al-Qaeda is fighting on the rebels side. A no-fly-zone is the best answer then, but it is the most unlikely politically because only Hillary has a set in the Obama Administration. So you need the CIA and Special Forces in there with missiles.
The rebels say that Al-Qaeda is indeed fighting on their side but Jihadist brigades are isolated from other brigades and are in effect quarantined from the bulk of the FSA to avoid infection, in an almost medical fashion. The idea is that once Assad is overthrown there will be a second war against Al-Qaeda and this quarantine structure will make it possible to win that war. The FSA needs Al-Qaeda fighters because they are the best of the best and bring crucial skills to the battlefield. Of course this is dancing with the devil and of course it is a dangerous game to play. The Long War is a dangerous game to play and without good bad guys we would be in worse shape than we already are.
Hillary Clinton and Turkey's top leaders are talking about opening a no-fly-zone over Syria. If this were to happen, then Assad would be defeated within a few months. It is 100% the right thing to do. The Jordanian Army has already clashed with Assad's Syrian Army once, the longer this war drags on the wider it will become until it starts consuming oil fields and pushes the global economy into a recession. It is impossible to overstate how positive an American-Turkish no-fly-zone would be. Hillary then has to somehow infuse Obama with a set. This is a big challenge because Obama runs scared before elections.
Assad's army has backed off on trying to take the key Salaheddine district with a massive infantry assault. He is once again standing back and pounding it with heavy weapons. Assad has taken about 90% of Salaheddine and about 50% of Aleppo as a whole. I remind you that the Battle of Aleppo is the most important Long War battle by a huge margin right now. It is everything.
Assad seemingly cannot put soldiers up one for one against the rebels for any length of time because the rebels are willing to die for their cause and Assad's soldiers are not. The rebels have gigantic moral superiority. Assad advantage is the possession of fighter jets, helicopters, artillery, armored personal carriers, and tanks; none of which the rebels have. But setting up a no-fly-zone or giving the rebels advanced manpad missiles will help eliminate Assad's advantage. Small portable missiles are problematic because Al-Qaeda is fighting on the rebels side. A no-fly-zone is the best answer then, but it is the most unlikely politically because only Hillary has a set in the Obama Administration. So you need the CIA and Special Forces in there with missiles.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Painfully We Move Forward
Charts: The broad index has broken out of its 1 1/2 year consolidation channel by trading convincingly above 1370. By that I mean technical indicators like the advance/decline are supportive. In the last few days the market has been flat, volume has been low, which is good. If volume were high in a flat market we would have stalling, which is bearish. Next resistance is 1422. As screwed up as fundies are we still need consolidation and a new channel of 1400-1422 before a true break-out can be considered strong.
The Eurostoxx 600 (European equivalent to the S&P 500) has executed a Golden Cross, where the 50-day line punches up through the 200-day line. This is bullish. However, the S&P 500's 200 day line has gotten pretty high and any sharp downdraft could pierce it, this is a caution flag.
The Hong Kong market is trying to punch up out of a 5-year consolidation pattern and it shows both long term and short term coiling behavior. So it could ratchet up or hurt you bad depending on how it uncoils. You can buy the index with ticker symbol EWH.
Fundamentals: Data out of China is horrible. Bad news is good. The market thinks Beijing will hit the juice and stimulate the crap out of its economy. Maybe. China levered stocks are up today.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has pushed the rebels out of the key Salaheddine district in the globally crucially Battle of Aleppo. The media is acting like troop movements and territory are key to this battle. But its really all about supply lines. Assad's army has severed rebel supply lines a couple times only to have them reform. The CIA has built a warren of rebel checkpoints on roads through rebel controlled land stretching from Aleppo to rebel supply bases in Turkey. It seems that Langley has done a bang-up job with all this careful spadework.
Assad's army still has not launched its huge ground invasion of Aleppo. It continues to use heavy weapons, small infantry squads, and snipers to push forward. There is fighting throughout the country, not just Aleppo. One gets the feeling that Assad is afraid to flood Aleppo with a massive numbers of infantrymen because he then would have no reserves to counter rebel attacks throughout the rest of the country. A rock and a hard place. It's a bitch being a tin-pot dictator on the wrong side of the CIA. And yet there is a lot of war to be fought. If push comes to shove, Assad will use chemical weapons.
The rest of the Long War grinds along. In Yemen, Al-Qaeda has mounted a huge terror campaign that is knocking the good guys back. Al-Qaeda affiliate Boko Haram is raising hell in Nigeria. The fighting season in Afghanistan is going poorly.
But the big picture is that the CIA is taking over bit by bit in Afghanistan. There was a high level meeting between Director Petraeus and the leaders of Pakistan's ISI. The ISI is now acting like a whipped puppy after this meeting. Painfully we move forward.
The Eurostoxx 600 (European equivalent to the S&P 500) has executed a Golden Cross, where the 50-day line punches up through the 200-day line. This is bullish. However, the S&P 500's 200 day line has gotten pretty high and any sharp downdraft could pierce it, this is a caution flag.
The Hong Kong market is trying to punch up out of a 5-year consolidation pattern and it shows both long term and short term coiling behavior. So it could ratchet up or hurt you bad depending on how it uncoils. You can buy the index with ticker symbol EWH.
Fundamentals: Data out of China is horrible. Bad news is good. The market thinks Beijing will hit the juice and stimulate the crap out of its economy. Maybe. China levered stocks are up today.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has pushed the rebels out of the key Salaheddine district in the globally crucially Battle of Aleppo. The media is acting like troop movements and territory are key to this battle. But its really all about supply lines. Assad's army has severed rebel supply lines a couple times only to have them reform. The CIA has built a warren of rebel checkpoints on roads through rebel controlled land stretching from Aleppo to rebel supply bases in Turkey. It seems that Langley has done a bang-up job with all this careful spadework.
Assad's army still has not launched its huge ground invasion of Aleppo. It continues to use heavy weapons, small infantry squads, and snipers to push forward. There is fighting throughout the country, not just Aleppo. One gets the feeling that Assad is afraid to flood Aleppo with a massive numbers of infantrymen because he then would have no reserves to counter rebel attacks throughout the rest of the country. A rock and a hard place. It's a bitch being a tin-pot dictator on the wrong side of the CIA. And yet there is a lot of war to be fought. If push comes to shove, Assad will use chemical weapons.
The rest of the Long War grinds along. In Yemen, Al-Qaeda has mounted a huge terror campaign that is knocking the good guys back. Al-Qaeda affiliate Boko Haram is raising hell in Nigeria. The fighting season in Afghanistan is going poorly.
But the big picture is that the CIA is taking over bit by bit in Afghanistan. There was a high level meeting between Director Petraeus and the leaders of Pakistan's ISI. The ISI is now acting like a whipped puppy after this meeting. Painfully we move forward.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Syrian Civil War
The Battle of Aleppo: Assad's army has almost secured the staging grounds for the infantry assault on the rebel held Salaheddine district. Assad is trying to clear the last rebel toehold out of Damascus to cover his back. As he does this he is pouring everything he's got into the staging grounds. Once he has total control of Damascus, then a huge assault will sweep into Aleppo.
None of this violates the parallel I've been drawing between Aleppo and Stalingrad. I remind you that the Germans conquered 90% of Stalingrad before they were ultimately defeated.
The CIA had been holding back heavy weapons from the rebels because their ranks are infiltrated by Al-Qaeda. Now the heavy weapons are coming through. About 20 soldiers from both sides are dying every day, making this war far and away the biggest among all the global Long War campaigns. This will soon spike up when the big assault is launched.
Russia thinks the rebels might win. It is landing 360 Marines into its Syrian naval base. They will be used to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria if the rebels start winning. Syrians hate Russians and will try to kill them in the aftermath of the war.
Iran thinks the rebels might win. It is saying that it might provide the Afghan Taliban with surface to air missiles at some point in the future. Of course Iran doesn't say it will do this if the rebels win, but that's essentially the point.
Israel sees Iran going into a frenzied chest beating routine at the prospect of its ally Assad getting clobbered and freaks out. Israel is now making the most bellicose noise against Iran in quite some time. Somebody bombed a Palestinian camp in Syria. All the enemies of Israel such as Hezbollah are stirring.
The ripples from the Battle of Aleppo are already surging across the global Long War landscape in a messy and unpredictable fashion. Let us hope President Obama is truly committed to a hands off policy with the CIA because traditional civilian interference right now is a really bad idea.
None of this violates the parallel I've been drawing between Aleppo and Stalingrad. I remind you that the Germans conquered 90% of Stalingrad before they were ultimately defeated.
The CIA had been holding back heavy weapons from the rebels because their ranks are infiltrated by Al-Qaeda. Now the heavy weapons are coming through. About 20 soldiers from both sides are dying every day, making this war far and away the biggest among all the global Long War campaigns. This will soon spike up when the big assault is launched.
Russia thinks the rebels might win. It is landing 360 Marines into its Syrian naval base. They will be used to evacuate Russian citizens from Syria if the rebels start winning. Syrians hate Russians and will try to kill them in the aftermath of the war.
Iran thinks the rebels might win. It is saying that it might provide the Afghan Taliban with surface to air missiles at some point in the future. Of course Iran doesn't say it will do this if the rebels win, but that's essentially the point.
Israel sees Iran going into a frenzied chest beating routine at the prospect of its ally Assad getting clobbered and freaks out. Israel is now making the most bellicose noise against Iran in quite some time. Somebody bombed a Palestinian camp in Syria. All the enemies of Israel such as Hezbollah are stirring.
The ripples from the Battle of Aleppo are already surging across the global Long War landscape in a messy and unpredictable fashion. Let us hope President Obama is truly committed to a hands off policy with the CIA because traditional civilian interference right now is a really bad idea.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
CIA Wears Awesome Maternity Clothes
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has been trying to capture the Salaheddine district in the Battle for Aleppo by standing back and reducing the district to rubble with heavy weapons fire. They tried once to send in foot soldiers, but were beaten back. After that they went back to heavy weapons fire, which isn't working. They need to secure a staging ground near the district, strengthen all their supply lines, build up an invasion force inside the staging grounds, and then move in with infantry (foot soldiers)and painfully clear the district one square yard at a time. The bad guys are trying to do all of this as I write.
The rebels have not captured tanks from the bad guys until now. One or more tanks have suddenly been captured by the good guys and were used to attack Assad's staging grounds, disrupting his invasion force. Because the rebels have not used armor until now the bad guys were caught by surprise.
President Obama is admitting that he signed an order earlier in the year instructing the CIA to get involved in the Syrian Civil War. This makes three different statements describing how pregnant the CIA is in the SCW. Each statement admits to a greater degree of pregnancy than the one before like this: "The CIA is only a little bit pregnant. Okay, we are a bit more pregnant than previously thought. Okay, we are even more pregnant, but still you can barely notice with these awesome maternity clothes that we are wearing."
In Afghanistan, Afghan special forces launched a huge raid that resulted in the capture of key intelligence from the Taliban. This too is CIA activity. It may be one of the first signs of Langley's take over of the Afghan War. In this case the liberal cry, "bring our boys home!" is a good one. Of course the liberals don't follow up with a second cry, "Then unleash the clever bastards from Langley without any oversight so they can break all the rules and build up a war lord economy, etc.. etc..."
The rebels have not captured tanks from the bad guys until now. One or more tanks have suddenly been captured by the good guys and were used to attack Assad's staging grounds, disrupting his invasion force. Because the rebels have not used armor until now the bad guys were caught by surprise.
President Obama is admitting that he signed an order earlier in the year instructing the CIA to get involved in the Syrian Civil War. This makes three different statements describing how pregnant the CIA is in the SCW. Each statement admits to a greater degree of pregnancy than the one before like this: "The CIA is only a little bit pregnant. Okay, we are a bit more pregnant than previously thought. Okay, we are even more pregnant, but still you can barely notice with these awesome maternity clothes that we are wearing."
In Afghanistan, Afghan special forces launched a huge raid that resulted in the capture of key intelligence from the Taliban. This too is CIA activity. It may be one of the first signs of Langley's take over of the Afghan War. In this case the liberal cry, "bring our boys home!" is a good one. Of course the liberals don't follow up with a second cry, "Then unleash the clever bastards from Langley without any oversight so they can break all the rules and build up a war lord economy, etc.. etc..."
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Don't @%$# With The CIA
The Battle for Aleppo: Assad's Syrian Army is in its third day of attacking the Salaheddine district, the key to the battle. The bad guys are throwing everything they have into the district, blackening the sky with smoke from mortars, artillery shells, missiles from jet fighters and other heavy ordnance. The rebels are absorbing this punishing fire and holding the district, against all odds. The FSA says it is gaining ground around the periphery of the battle, starting a pincer movement to engulf Assad's army as it gets sucked into this hellish firestorm.
Assad's army is tearing apart buildings in the city because of its reliance on heavy weapons. The resulting rubble is giving cover to the rebel fighters, turning the once proud city into a nightmare of urban warfare where tanks and jets are not that useful and the fighting quickly descends into hand-to-hand combat and sniper duels. This is exactly what happened at Stalingrad.
The battle wasn't supposed to be going down like this. The rebels aren't following the playbook that the media and the West laid down for them. This battle was supposed to result in a rebel massacre. War crime courts were geared up to prosecute Assad's people for the expected bloodbath.
Russia is making plans to abandon its naval base in Syria in case it is overrun by rebel fighters. This is Russia's only big overseas military base; Russia's pride and joy. The Russians are looking to build a new base elsewhere. They have approached Cuba and other countries.
Why are all the analysts so wrong about this battle? What is it that they don't understand? They answer is that they don't understand what it means to @$#%& with the CIA.
Assad's army is tearing apart buildings in the city because of its reliance on heavy weapons. The resulting rubble is giving cover to the rebel fighters, turning the once proud city into a nightmare of urban warfare where tanks and jets are not that useful and the fighting quickly descends into hand-to-hand combat and sniper duels. This is exactly what happened at Stalingrad.
The battle wasn't supposed to be going down like this. The rebels aren't following the playbook that the media and the West laid down for them. This battle was supposed to result in a rebel massacre. War crime courts were geared up to prosecute Assad's people for the expected bloodbath.
Russia is making plans to abandon its naval base in Syria in case it is overrun by rebel fighters. This is Russia's only big overseas military base; Russia's pride and joy. The Russians are looking to build a new base elsewhere. They have approached Cuba and other countries.
Why are all the analysts so wrong about this battle? What is it that they don't understand? They answer is that they don't understand what it means to @$#%& with the CIA.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Welcome To Stalingrad
Syrian Civil War: Moral superiority is an actual military concept. It means one side in a war is willing to take much higher casualties than the other to achieve victory. In this context the phrase does not have any philosophical meaning. The FSA rebels have moral superiority over Assad's army. The bad guys might have kill ratios of 100-1 over the good guys. And yet the good guys are (so far) winning. This is the most horrible and gruesome way to win a war.
The Battle of Aleppo has begun. Both sides are fighting over the Salaheddine district, which is now key. Assad's army said they had captured Salaheddine one day ago after a withering barrage of rockets, mortars, helicopter gunship fire, and fire from the cannons of tanks. Assad's army moved in infantry to hold the ground they thought they'd captured but rebel fighters crawled out of the ruins and repelled the bad guy foot soldiers. Moral superiority.
The German army captured 90% of Stalingrad before losing the battle. The Germans thought the scorecard for victory was how much of the city they had captured and how many Russian soldiers they had killed. The actual scorecard was the condition of the German supply lines. Every German bullet had to be transported over 1000 miles to Stalingrad. If these supply lines were not robust, Germany would and did lose.
Before the Battle of Aleppo the rebels fought hard and secured all the ground necessary for them to maintain supply lines. The rebel supply lines are impregnable. The CIA has publicly admitted that it is running these supply lines.
We don't know the condition of Assad's supply lines. But as the battle unfolds we will find out.
It is very rare for a vastly outgunned army to defeat a technologically advanced army with moral superiority. The last time this happened was about 140 years ago. It can only happen if the outgunned army has a much better and more sophisticated strategy and tactics. The military minds behind the primitive army must be way better than their opponents. Better chess players.
In Stalingrad the Russians had equal technology compared to the Germans. So this is an imperfect analogy.
The Battle of Aleppo has begun. Both sides are fighting over the Salaheddine district, which is now key. Assad's army said they had captured Salaheddine one day ago after a withering barrage of rockets, mortars, helicopter gunship fire, and fire from the cannons of tanks. Assad's army moved in infantry to hold the ground they thought they'd captured but rebel fighters crawled out of the ruins and repelled the bad guy foot soldiers. Moral superiority.
The German army captured 90% of Stalingrad before losing the battle. The Germans thought the scorecard for victory was how much of the city they had captured and how many Russian soldiers they had killed. The actual scorecard was the condition of the German supply lines. Every German bullet had to be transported over 1000 miles to Stalingrad. If these supply lines were not robust, Germany would and did lose.
Before the Battle of Aleppo the rebels fought hard and secured all the ground necessary for them to maintain supply lines. The rebel supply lines are impregnable. The CIA has publicly admitted that it is running these supply lines.
We don't know the condition of Assad's supply lines. But as the battle unfolds we will find out.
It is very rare for a vastly outgunned army to defeat a technologically advanced army with moral superiority. The last time this happened was about 140 years ago. It can only happen if the outgunned army has a much better and more sophisticated strategy and tactics. The military minds behind the primitive army must be way better than their opponents. Better chess players.
In Stalingrad the Russians had equal technology compared to the Germans. So this is an imperfect analogy.
Friday, July 27, 2012
I'm Sorry For Getting Religious On You.
Charts: The S&P 500 has been in a consolidation channel for 1 1/2 years. Today it moved up to the top of that channel (1370) right after the bell. It moved in and out of resistance at 1370 a dozen times, then punched up through the long term channel. If it trades above 1370 for four days, then the chartsists will say it has achieved a break out.
Long War: A high ranking Syrian general who defected a while ago to join the FSA is painting a very different picture of Assad's army and the looming battle of Aleppo then what I did yesterday. Sorry. General Al-Zobi says the rebels have cut off all supply lines to Assad's army and the bad guys are running out of fuel and rockets. He is hinting that the strategy the rebels are employing in Aleppo is the same that Soviet General Zhukov employed in Stalingrad to destroy Hitler's 6th Army.
Hitler was sucked into Stalingrad. It was a trap, an urban trap. It soon became a death field for the Wehrmacht. Al-Zobi is insinuating that history is repeating itself.
Soviet General Zhukov was considered to be one of the greatest military minds in all of human history. Who is the super-genius at the helm of the FSA? Reuters thinks it has an answer...
Reuters says that the Turks have created a huge "nerve center" that is organizing the FSA. This nerve center is being run (according to Reuters) by the Turks, Saudis, and Qataris. We are told the teeny-tiny Qatari intelligence agency is the brains behind this operation. The high-tech stuff that you would think could only be done by the CIA is (we are told) being done by a vague group of private outside contractors. As you will recall we were also told at the time that the Qataris were running the war in Libya. The mouse is pretending to be an elephant.
I'm not even going to waste my time picking this nonsense apart. If you've been reading this blog for any length of time, then you know exactly what I'm going say about all this happy horse-shit.
All I will say is this... I try not to get too religious when it comes to investing, but today I can't help but fall to my knees and offer this prayer of thanks to the good Lord above, "Dear Lord God Jehovah thank you making the CIA such a bunch of cunning and deceitful bastards. Keep up the good work. Amen."
Long War: A high ranking Syrian general who defected a while ago to join the FSA is painting a very different picture of Assad's army and the looming battle of Aleppo then what I did yesterday. Sorry. General Al-Zobi says the rebels have cut off all supply lines to Assad's army and the bad guys are running out of fuel and rockets. He is hinting that the strategy the rebels are employing in Aleppo is the same that Soviet General Zhukov employed in Stalingrad to destroy Hitler's 6th Army.
Hitler was sucked into Stalingrad. It was a trap, an urban trap. It soon became a death field for the Wehrmacht. Al-Zobi is insinuating that history is repeating itself.
Soviet General Zhukov was considered to be one of the greatest military minds in all of human history. Who is the super-genius at the helm of the FSA? Reuters thinks it has an answer...
Reuters says that the Turks have created a huge "nerve center" that is organizing the FSA. This nerve center is being run (according to Reuters) by the Turks, Saudis, and Qataris. We are told the teeny-tiny Qatari intelligence agency is the brains behind this operation. The high-tech stuff that you would think could only be done by the CIA is (we are told) being done by a vague group of private outside contractors. As you will recall we were also told at the time that the Qataris were running the war in Libya. The mouse is pretending to be an elephant.
I'm not even going to waste my time picking this nonsense apart. If you've been reading this blog for any length of time, then you know exactly what I'm going say about all this happy horse-shit.
All I will say is this... I try not to get too religious when it comes to investing, but today I can't help but fall to my knees and offer this prayer of thanks to the good Lord above, "Dear Lord God Jehovah thank you making the CIA such a bunch of cunning and deceitful bastards. Keep up the good work. Amen."
Thursday, July 26, 2012
The Battle Of Aleppo This Weekend
Charts: The broad index has repeatedly tested battleground support at 1333. Today we have a monster rally. This means that the key support level is rock hard and well tested. So the charts look good. The downside is volatility, which is screeching high and makes chart analysis difficult.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has cleared most rebel positions out of Damascus in what appears to be a hard fought victory for the bad guys. However the FSA maintains a toehold in the capital city. A huge battle is looming in the largest city, Aleppo. Assad is ringing the city with a wall of armor. Syrian helicopter gunships fill the sky. Assad's military assets are being stripped from all parts of the country. He is throwing everything he has into the Battle of Aleppo, which will probably start this weekend.
The rebels are doing the same thing, pouring in reinforcements, throwing everything they've got into Aleppo, pea-shooters and courage against Soviet T-72 main battle tanks. Currently the rebels control half the city. It is hard to see how they will prevail. But then it is hard to see how Assad will retake the rest of the country after giving it up to win this big battle.
Many experts think Assad doesn't want the rest of the country but is instead going to create a mini-state on the coast for his Alawite clansmen. This might actually be okay.
In Mali, the General in charge of America's Africa Command, Carter Ham, says AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) has become enormously rich and powerful. AQIM controls all of northern Mali, it has its own country, which is bigger than France. General Ham is hinting that CIA drone bases must be built around this gigantic Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda. And this is likely to happen over the next few years. General Ham is working to whip the African Union in shape to attack AQIM in Mali.
The President of the African Union is now a South African. A sleeping giant is stirring. South Africa has never taken a leadership role like this before. It will take the South African Army to dislodge AQIM from Mali. The building blocks are falling in place for this to happen.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army has cleared most rebel positions out of Damascus in what appears to be a hard fought victory for the bad guys. However the FSA maintains a toehold in the capital city. A huge battle is looming in the largest city, Aleppo. Assad is ringing the city with a wall of armor. Syrian helicopter gunships fill the sky. Assad's military assets are being stripped from all parts of the country. He is throwing everything he has into the Battle of Aleppo, which will probably start this weekend.
The rebels are doing the same thing, pouring in reinforcements, throwing everything they've got into Aleppo, pea-shooters and courage against Soviet T-72 main battle tanks. Currently the rebels control half the city. It is hard to see how they will prevail. But then it is hard to see how Assad will retake the rest of the country after giving it up to win this big battle.
Many experts think Assad doesn't want the rest of the country but is instead going to create a mini-state on the coast for his Alawite clansmen. This might actually be okay.
In Mali, the General in charge of America's Africa Command, Carter Ham, says AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) has become enormously rich and powerful. AQIM controls all of northern Mali, it has its own country, which is bigger than France. General Ham is hinting that CIA drone bases must be built around this gigantic Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda. And this is likely to happen over the next few years. General Ham is working to whip the African Union in shape to attack AQIM in Mali.
The President of the African Union is now a South African. A sleeping giant is stirring. South Africa has never taken a leadership role like this before. It will take the South African Army to dislodge AQIM from Mali. The building blocks are falling in place for this to happen.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Hellfire Missiles Rain Down From The Heavens
Charts: Yesterday the broad index hit the 50-day moving average, found support and so far today that support is holding. We are balanced on a razor's edge and need desperately for 1333 to hold.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army is pulling forces from all parts of the country to reinforce his drive into the two largest cities: Aleppo and Damascus. This is a desperate measure. He is giving up everything to hold these two big cities. If he were to establish control in the two cities, then he will have a very hard time fighting outward to retake the rest of the country.
The rebels are taking advantage of Assad's strategy by seizing border crossings, trying to seal off Syria from the rest of the world, preventing Assad from getting weapons and support from abroad.
Syrian prisons have been infiltrated by good guys and jail breaks are occurring. This means Assad's army has to stop fighting the rebels to restore order in these prisons. This is the work of an advanced intelligence agency.
In Yemen, the CIA is stretched thin and AQAP knows it. In June AQAP was totally routed from the little Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda it had carved out in southern Yemen. AQAP is starting a campaign to reconquer the villages it had been booted out of. But the first bad guy attack was repelled by well-armed and well-trained good guy local militia. So Langley has done some good advanced planning and has forces in place to deal with an expected AQAP push back.
In the Pak Tribal Lands, jihadist gunmen attacked a compound that a top Pakistan Taliban commander had been using. The gunmen killed the Taliban chieftian. Okay, it is time for everybody to admit that the CIA has its own jihadist forces. The Pakistan government sure seems to think so. They are now on their best behavior, using the Pak Air Force once again to strike bad guy positions. NATO supply routes are open and the Pak government is keeping its pie-hole shut about CIA drone strikes.
Speaking of which... The CIA drone campaign is once again roaring ahead full throttle, with Hellfire missiles raining down from the heavens, chewing up bad guy encampments and filling the air with the terrifying sounds and smells of American vengeance.
Long War: In Syria, Assad's army is pulling forces from all parts of the country to reinforce his drive into the two largest cities: Aleppo and Damascus. This is a desperate measure. He is giving up everything to hold these two big cities. If he were to establish control in the two cities, then he will have a very hard time fighting outward to retake the rest of the country.
The rebels are taking advantage of Assad's strategy by seizing border crossings, trying to seal off Syria from the rest of the world, preventing Assad from getting weapons and support from abroad.
Syrian prisons have been infiltrated by good guys and jail breaks are occurring. This means Assad's army has to stop fighting the rebels to restore order in these prisons. This is the work of an advanced intelligence agency.
In Yemen, the CIA is stretched thin and AQAP knows it. In June AQAP was totally routed from the little Kingdom-of-Al-Qaeda it had carved out in southern Yemen. AQAP is starting a campaign to reconquer the villages it had been booted out of. But the first bad guy attack was repelled by well-armed and well-trained good guy local militia. So Langley has done some good advanced planning and has forces in place to deal with an expected AQAP push back.
In the Pak Tribal Lands, jihadist gunmen attacked a compound that a top Pakistan Taliban commander had been using. The gunmen killed the Taliban chieftian. Okay, it is time for everybody to admit that the CIA has its own jihadist forces. The Pakistan government sure seems to think so. They are now on their best behavior, using the Pak Air Force once again to strike bad guy positions. NATO supply routes are open and the Pak government is keeping its pie-hole shut about CIA drone strikes.
Speaking of which... The CIA drone campaign is once again roaring ahead full throttle, with Hellfire missiles raining down from the heavens, chewing up bad guy encampments and filling the air with the terrifying sounds and smells of American vengeance.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The CIA Director is a Screw-Up. Not.
Charts: At midday on July 24 the S&P 500 is trading just under 1333 which is both the 50-day moving average and the final Fibonacci retracement level in the series. This is also the bottom of the recent trading channel and a battleground support level. A convincing break below 1333 means the charts are saying a serious correction has begun. I have my puke bucket only inches from my desk and it seems to be calling to me: "Puke, Dave, go ahead, let it out!"
Fundamentals: Yesterday I said Spain will default. But the media is saying Spain will get bailed out like Greece and not default. Newsflash: Greek debt gave investors a 75% haircut, that's called defaulting.
Long War: In their wisdom the international NGOs in Afghanistan gave the Taliban a free pass on poisoning little girls in girls-only-schools. The Taliban of course has infiltrated Afghan security forces. Before the Taliban moles would have to kill themselves to take out honest security personnel; go out in a blaze of fire. Now they are using poison and living to fight another day. Can you see why we need to get the western liberal do-gooders out of Afghanistan?
In Syria, for the first time Assad's Air Force is strafing rebel positions with fighter jets. So FSA rebels armed with AK-47 and itty-bitty grenade launchers are being attacked by main battle tanks, heavy artillery, fighter-bombers, and attack helicopters. Not surprisingly, the good guys are being knocked back.
What possible advantage do the good guys have? What force is on their side against this overwhelming firepower? Consider the following two news items...
Russia is warning Assad not to use chemical weapons. Somebody or something is pressuring the holy crap out of Russia. Who could it be?
The Wall Street Journal ran an article yesterday asserting that the CIA is a little bit more pregnant in the Syrian Civil War than previously admitted, but only by a tiny amount. The article used the word "limited" several times. The CIA is indeed pregnant but only in the most limited manner possible. Then the article highlighted the blunders the CIA supposedly has made in its limited pregnancy. Shipments of arms have gotten through. Langley is not really doing that great of a job, yada yada yada. This is called disinformation.
Today the Wall Street Urinal is running an article asserting that David Petraeus' number one concern is getting a new gym for the spooks at Langley. What a srew-up he must be. Not.
This is what the out-gunned FSA rebels have on their side, the raw genius of the greatest military mind in the world.
Fundamentals: Yesterday I said Spain will default. But the media is saying Spain will get bailed out like Greece and not default. Newsflash: Greek debt gave investors a 75% haircut, that's called defaulting.
Long War: In their wisdom the international NGOs in Afghanistan gave the Taliban a free pass on poisoning little girls in girls-only-schools. The Taliban of course has infiltrated Afghan security forces. Before the Taliban moles would have to kill themselves to take out honest security personnel; go out in a blaze of fire. Now they are using poison and living to fight another day. Can you see why we need to get the western liberal do-gooders out of Afghanistan?
In Syria, for the first time Assad's Air Force is strafing rebel positions with fighter jets. So FSA rebels armed with AK-47 and itty-bitty grenade launchers are being attacked by main battle tanks, heavy artillery, fighter-bombers, and attack helicopters. Not surprisingly, the good guys are being knocked back.
What possible advantage do the good guys have? What force is on their side against this overwhelming firepower? Consider the following two news items...
Russia is warning Assad not to use chemical weapons. Somebody or something is pressuring the holy crap out of Russia. Who could it be?
The Wall Street Journal ran an article yesterday asserting that the CIA is a little bit more pregnant in the Syrian Civil War than previously admitted, but only by a tiny amount. The article used the word "limited" several times. The CIA is indeed pregnant but only in the most limited manner possible. Then the article highlighted the blunders the CIA supposedly has made in its limited pregnancy. Shipments of arms have gotten through. Langley is not really doing that great of a job, yada yada yada. This is called disinformation.
Today the Wall Street Urinal is running an article asserting that David Petraeus' number one concern is getting a new gym for the spooks at Langley. What a srew-up he must be. Not.
This is what the out-gunned FSA rebels have on their side, the raw genius of the greatest military mind in the world.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Ramadan Violence is Not Good
Fundamentals: Spain is going to need a bail out from the EU and ECB or it is likely to default. Greece has exhausted its bail out funding and it too will probably default on existing debt. Much of Greece's debt has been written down, but it hasn't been written down to zero, so it can obviously still default. The ECB could just print Euros out of thin air and vaporize all this bad debt. This would only work if southern European countries actually implemented free market reforms, giving them the ability to start growing again. But they refuse to make these reforms. So huge injections of ECB funds would just flow into foolish make work projects and wealth transfer schemes. So the fundies look really bad.
Long War: Al-Qaeda in Iraq killed over 100 people today, including dozens of Iraqi soldiers. A while ago the CIA told us quite openly it was pulling all assets out of Iraq. I speculated that the CIA was pouring its Iraqi resources into Syria and wanted to leave a juicy target behind in Iraq for the bad guys to play with, preventing them from getting too heavily involved in the Syrian Civil War. Looks like I was right. The CIA is stretched thin. It can't be everywhere at once and is therefore doing the right thing. The Long War is a nasty business and there are no wonderful Hollywood answers to every problem.
The Muslim majority Mombasa region on Kenya's coast is being infiltrated and taken over by Al-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia. A small guerrilla war is brewing there that will someday explode into a big war. Remember my long term prediction, that jihadist wars will spread down either coast of Africa, forming a gigantic pincer movement that ultimately will be directed at South Africa? Facts on the ground are bearing this prediction out.
At some point the sleeping giant will be awakened. At some point South Africa will rise up and send divisions of Christian soldiers north. The Long War will become more religious and much more bloody when that happens. Scary.
Syria is making statements about when and how it will use chemical weapons. The statements are disinformation of course. The take-away here is that chemical weapons will soon enter the battlefield. Not good.
In Saudi Arabia, Sunni/Shiite violence is increasing on a street level. Violence across the Muslim world is increasing as the Holy month of Ramadan gets underway. It is not good that Ramadan is causing violence to go up rather than the opposite.
Time to analyze the analyst.... Analysts that are good at making forecasts usually have one big weakness: they always get the timing wrong. They think future events they are predicting will happen either too quickly or too slowly. The Long War is moving more quickly than I thought it would.
Long War: Al-Qaeda in Iraq killed over 100 people today, including dozens of Iraqi soldiers. A while ago the CIA told us quite openly it was pulling all assets out of Iraq. I speculated that the CIA was pouring its Iraqi resources into Syria and wanted to leave a juicy target behind in Iraq for the bad guys to play with, preventing them from getting too heavily involved in the Syrian Civil War. Looks like I was right. The CIA is stretched thin. It can't be everywhere at once and is therefore doing the right thing. The Long War is a nasty business and there are no wonderful Hollywood answers to every problem.
The Muslim majority Mombasa region on Kenya's coast is being infiltrated and taken over by Al-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia. A small guerrilla war is brewing there that will someday explode into a big war. Remember my long term prediction, that jihadist wars will spread down either coast of Africa, forming a gigantic pincer movement that ultimately will be directed at South Africa? Facts on the ground are bearing this prediction out.
At some point the sleeping giant will be awakened. At some point South Africa will rise up and send divisions of Christian soldiers north. The Long War will become more religious and much more bloody when that happens. Scary.
Syria is making statements about when and how it will use chemical weapons. The statements are disinformation of course. The take-away here is that chemical weapons will soon enter the battlefield. Not good.
In Saudi Arabia, Sunni/Shiite violence is increasing on a street level. Violence across the Muslim world is increasing as the Holy month of Ramadan gets underway. It is not good that Ramadan is causing violence to go up rather than the opposite.
Time to analyze the analyst.... Analysts that are good at making forecasts usually have one big weakness: they always get the timing wrong. They think future events they are predicting will happen either too quickly or too slowly. The Long War is moving more quickly than I thought it would.
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Evil Fears These 3 Letters: C... I... A...
Syria: The FSA offensive into Damascus saw several thousand rebel fighters infiltrate key sections of the city before the battle had begun. Additionally, a fifth column of anti-Assad civilians living in Damascus had been trained and prepped before the battle. When the main rebel force swept into the urban battlefield the pre-positioned fighters launched a diversionary attack and the fifth column ignited gigantic piles of tires on street corners; all of this occurred some distance from the actual point of attack. This caused Assad's army to defend the wrong locations and get attacked from behind. Furthermore, the assassination of Assad's top military leaders occurred as the battle was being joined. This left Assad's army without leadership at a key moment.
The tactical planning was incredible, the timing and execution was incredibly professional. Compound this with the fact that the rebel army is beating back tanks and helicopter gunships with nothing more than small arms.
You want more evidence that the CIA is running the show? The bomb that killed Assad's top military commanders was clearly set in place by a high level Assad insider and it was detonated remotely with a sophisticated wireless device. So somebody was able to offer this insider a life outside Syria as payment for turning traitor, something the FSA cannot do.
There is a reason why the CIA is only giving the rebels light weapons, namely the rebel army is infiltrated with Al-Qaeda cells and we don't want these bad guys to have sophisticated weapons. As brilliant as Petraeus is, Assad is getting ready to use chemical weapons and it is about to get really hairy in Syria.
The Pak Tribal Lands: A suicide bomber blew up a compound used by a small Taliban militia in the Orakzai tribal region, killing 9 jihadists and wounding 20 more. A jihadist killed a bunch of jihadists. This is further evidence that the CIA has jihadist forces of its own. There is an old saying: "To catch a thief, set a thief."
Jihad sounds like a bad word, doesn't it? The literal English translation is crusade. The two words have identical meanings. They both mean holy war. The CIA has native Islamic forces willing to kill Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the name of Allah, in the name of God. These fighters believe they are clawing back their religion from the clutches of evil, from Satan. If you are an atheist we'll go with the word "evil." Fine, here is the question then: How evil is the Taliban? Please read on...
Afghanistan: The number of girls dying in girl-only-schools has soared this year, hitting all time records. Hundreds of girl students have died from poisoned wells. The handful of foreign NGOs charged with investigating all these deaths have written a report saying the Taliban is not to blame and the deaths are the result of unspecified natural pathogens. The foreign workers for the NGOs were not killed or targeted by the Taliban because of their report, disgusting. They will be leaving when NATO pulls out in 2014 and don't want to stick their necks out. Cowards.
The Taliban is getting ready for the day when NATO pulls out. It wants to send a message to the average citizens of Afghanistan: a new reign of terror is about to begin and you had better bow your heads in submission to us or we will chop them off.
I believe that by then there will be a new breed of jihadist in Afghanistan and the old jihadists will have their hands full. In the first couple years of the Afghan war the Northern Alliance (native war lords) and the CIA totally routed the Taliban. The war went sideways when anti-war lord programs were put in place by the State Department (under Bush) and the Pentagon took over from the CIA. This was a huge mistake. But that mistake will be reversed in 2014 and their will be a new sheriff in town. 2014 is a long ways away and this year's fighting season is not going that great.
The tactical planning was incredible, the timing and execution was incredibly professional. Compound this with the fact that the rebel army is beating back tanks and helicopter gunships with nothing more than small arms.
You want more evidence that the CIA is running the show? The bomb that killed Assad's top military commanders was clearly set in place by a high level Assad insider and it was detonated remotely with a sophisticated wireless device. So somebody was able to offer this insider a life outside Syria as payment for turning traitor, something the FSA cannot do.
There is a reason why the CIA is only giving the rebels light weapons, namely the rebel army is infiltrated with Al-Qaeda cells and we don't want these bad guys to have sophisticated weapons. As brilliant as Petraeus is, Assad is getting ready to use chemical weapons and it is about to get really hairy in Syria.
The Pak Tribal Lands: A suicide bomber blew up a compound used by a small Taliban militia in the Orakzai tribal region, killing 9 jihadists and wounding 20 more. A jihadist killed a bunch of jihadists. This is further evidence that the CIA has jihadist forces of its own. There is an old saying: "To catch a thief, set a thief."
Jihad sounds like a bad word, doesn't it? The literal English translation is crusade. The two words have identical meanings. They both mean holy war. The CIA has native Islamic forces willing to kill Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the name of Allah, in the name of God. These fighters believe they are clawing back their religion from the clutches of evil, from Satan. If you are an atheist we'll go with the word "evil." Fine, here is the question then: How evil is the Taliban? Please read on...
Afghanistan: The number of girls dying in girl-only-schools has soared this year, hitting all time records. Hundreds of girl students have died from poisoned wells. The handful of foreign NGOs charged with investigating all these deaths have written a report saying the Taliban is not to blame and the deaths are the result of unspecified natural pathogens. The foreign workers for the NGOs were not killed or targeted by the Taliban because of their report, disgusting. They will be leaving when NATO pulls out in 2014 and don't want to stick their necks out. Cowards.
The Taliban is getting ready for the day when NATO pulls out. It wants to send a message to the average citizens of Afghanistan: a new reign of terror is about to begin and you had better bow your heads in submission to us or we will chop them off.
I believe that by then there will be a new breed of jihadist in Afghanistan and the old jihadists will have their hands full. In the first couple years of the Afghan war the Northern Alliance (native war lords) and the CIA totally routed the Taliban. The war went sideways when anti-war lord programs were put in place by the State Department (under Bush) and the Pentagon took over from the CIA. This was a huge mistake. But that mistake will be reversed in 2014 and their will be a new sheriff in town. 2014 is a long ways away and this year's fighting season is not going that great.
Friday, July 20, 2012
Will Dave Be Visited by Men In Black?
Long War: The CIA has just assassinated the head of Assad's Syrian Intelligence. But wait a minute, the media is saying the rebel FSA is doing all these assassinations. In other words, the FSA has suddenly become better than Mossad or any other world class intelligence agency. Remember my analogy about a ten-year old Girl Scout killing 20 Hell's Angels with a pocket knife? (If not, see blog below this one). Okay, now we are to believe the Girl Scout's next move was to jump on her tricycle, peddle to the Hell's Angel headquarters and kill half of its top leadership. That is one bad ass Girl Scout!
The FSA rebel army continues to shred Assad's army. I've said this offensive is being led by Navy SEALs and I am being sloppy here. Sorry. The CIA has its own paramilitary soldiers. They are all former US Special Forces soldiers. But now they work for Langley, not the US Navy. A technicality.
For the first time Russia is hinting that Assad must step down. A while ago Russia agreed to stop selling weapons to Assad. At the time I said the CIA was pressuring Russia in some manner. I went on to say I didn't know how but a couple years ago there seemed to be CIA pressure on China in the form of Langley controlled jihadist terror strikes. I guess I shouldn't have been circumspect with that blog by hinting that I think Langley has its own jihadist forces. For one thing I don't want to have a "Tom Clancy Moment" where I get a knock on the door. Anyway, since I made that hint about potential CIA controlled terror strikes in Russia, that very event has occurred. In the Tararstan region there has been a huge spike in jihadist activity and nobody knows why. This area had been very peaceful until recently. Russia usually only has to deal with Islamic bad guys in the North Caucasus region.
There is no fact checker to turn to when you are analyzing and predicting CIA activity. Langley is the world's greatest liar and it is very difficult to see through the smoke and mirrors. The only report card possible for someone like me is to make predicitions about what will happen if a given theory is true and then wait to see if these predicitions come through. My report card has an "A" on it next to a shiny gold star. I'm leaving my house now before the men in black suits show up.
The FSA rebel army continues to shred Assad's army. I've said this offensive is being led by Navy SEALs and I am being sloppy here. Sorry. The CIA has its own paramilitary soldiers. They are all former US Special Forces soldiers. But now they work for Langley, not the US Navy. A technicality.
For the first time Russia is hinting that Assad must step down. A while ago Russia agreed to stop selling weapons to Assad. At the time I said the CIA was pressuring Russia in some manner. I went on to say I didn't know how but a couple years ago there seemed to be CIA pressure on China in the form of Langley controlled jihadist terror strikes. I guess I shouldn't have been circumspect with that blog by hinting that I think Langley has its own jihadist forces. For one thing I don't want to have a "Tom Clancy Moment" where I get a knock on the door. Anyway, since I made that hint about potential CIA controlled terror strikes in Russia, that very event has occurred. In the Tararstan region there has been a huge spike in jihadist activity and nobody knows why. This area had been very peaceful until recently. Russia usually only has to deal with Islamic bad guys in the North Caucasus region.
There is no fact checker to turn to when you are analyzing and predicting CIA activity. Langley is the world's greatest liar and it is very difficult to see through the smoke and mirrors. The only report card possible for someone like me is to make predicitions about what will happen if a given theory is true and then wait to see if these predicitions come through. My report card has an "A" on it next to a shiny gold star. I'm leaving my house now before the men in black suits show up.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Will Iran Stick Its Weenie In The Meat Grinder?
Charts: Over the past year and a half the broad index has been in a long term consolidation channel of 1320-1370. It is now at the upper end of that channel. There had been a short term upward sloping trading channel of 1334-1364. The index is now above that short term channel. If it stays above 1370 for 4 days in a row, then the charts are saying there has been a break out. This rosy view would be easier to swallow if volatility stays low. High volatility makes a mockery of chart analysis.
Long War: Off the Coast of Iran: The US Navy is adding a third aircraft carrier battle group to the mighty Persian Gulf flotilla. There are two battle groups there now. These three battle groups are augmented by fleets from 19 allied navies. This gigantic armada is ready to begin a joint naval exercise designed to train it to work as a single unit to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz, when and if Iran sticks its weenie in the meat grinder.
The Pentagon has almost finished building an anti-ballistic missile shield in the Gulf designed to blow away Iranian missiles. This will shield the Persian Gulf flotilla and allow it to rain holy hell on the bad guys.
The UAE has just finished a $4 billion overland oil pipeline that is now pumping Mideast oil that would have had to have been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but now cannot be touched by Iran, which makes a naval engagement in the Gulf much easier for the good guys.
A couple days ago a refueling ship inside one of the Persian Gulf battle groups fired on an Indian fishing boat that looked a little bit like an Iranian attack speedboat if you squinted just right. The fishing boat had nothing to do with Iran, but it was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Navy did not apologize, instead it said every vessel in the Gulf had better watch its ass because the good guys are not dicking around with Iran any more. This means that the rules of engagement for the Navy have been loosened up to allow for an all-out war.
The full weight of oil sanctions are now hitting Iran. Its economy will soon get so bad that revolution against the regime is possible. This means that as suicidal as it may seem, Iran may attack the mighty armada off its coast. The mouse may attack the lion. But this isn't Aesop's Fables. The mouse will get annihilated.
In Syria: The CIA just assassinated Assad's #1 Defense Minister and his #2 Deputy Defense Minister, dealing a savage blow to the tin pot dictator.
The FSA (good guys) says it is conquering Damascus, the seat of power. The FSA is right. They are winning. They are taking apart Assad's army as if it were an old clock. But its not an old clock; it used to be the most professional army in the Arab world. The media tells us that the FSA is winning because rag tag FSA fighters are taking out Assad's heavy armor with grenade launchers. That's like saying a ten-year-old Girl Scout armed with only a pocket knife has just walked into a biker bar filled with 20 Hell's Angels armed with Uzis. The little girl then start a fight with the bikers. Within minutes she has killed all 20 Hell's Angels. She calmly wipes off the blood, puts her little knife back in her pocket, and sells cookies to the bar patrons that haven't been killed. In the real world that is not possible. In the real world the Girl Scout is a Navy SEAL.
Long War: Off the Coast of Iran: The US Navy is adding a third aircraft carrier battle group to the mighty Persian Gulf flotilla. There are two battle groups there now. These three battle groups are augmented by fleets from 19 allied navies. This gigantic armada is ready to begin a joint naval exercise designed to train it to work as a single unit to remove mines from the Strait of Hormuz, when and if Iran sticks its weenie in the meat grinder.
The Pentagon has almost finished building an anti-ballistic missile shield in the Gulf designed to blow away Iranian missiles. This will shield the Persian Gulf flotilla and allow it to rain holy hell on the bad guys.
The UAE has just finished a $4 billion overland oil pipeline that is now pumping Mideast oil that would have had to have been shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but now cannot be touched by Iran, which makes a naval engagement in the Gulf much easier for the good guys.
A couple days ago a refueling ship inside one of the Persian Gulf battle groups fired on an Indian fishing boat that looked a little bit like an Iranian attack speedboat if you squinted just right. The fishing boat had nothing to do with Iran, but it was in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Navy did not apologize, instead it said every vessel in the Gulf had better watch its ass because the good guys are not dicking around with Iran any more. This means that the rules of engagement for the Navy have been loosened up to allow for an all-out war.
The full weight of oil sanctions are now hitting Iran. Its economy will soon get so bad that revolution against the regime is possible. This means that as suicidal as it may seem, Iran may attack the mighty armada off its coast. The mouse may attack the lion. But this isn't Aesop's Fables. The mouse will get annihilated.
In Syria: The CIA just assassinated Assad's #1 Defense Minister and his #2 Deputy Defense Minister, dealing a savage blow to the tin pot dictator.
The FSA (good guys) says it is conquering Damascus, the seat of power. The FSA is right. They are winning. They are taking apart Assad's army as if it were an old clock. But its not an old clock; it used to be the most professional army in the Arab world. The media tells us that the FSA is winning because rag tag FSA fighters are taking out Assad's heavy armor with grenade launchers. That's like saying a ten-year-old Girl Scout armed with only a pocket knife has just walked into a biker bar filled with 20 Hell's Angels armed with Uzis. The little girl then start a fight with the bikers. Within minutes she has killed all 20 Hell's Angels. She calmly wipes off the blood, puts her little knife back in her pocket, and sells cookies to the bar patrons that haven't been killed. In the real world that is not possible. In the real world the Girl Scout is a Navy SEAL.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Navy SEALs Kick Nine Yards of Ass
Fundamentals: It is possible that the only realistic engine for global economic growth is China. Therefore we have to dig deeper into the recent GDP data out of China, even though we don't want to. The new methodology eliminates one layer of corrupt government officials, but leaves one layer in place. That makes you think it is about 50% more accurate than the old method.
Private economists have been aware of the kinkiness of Chinese data for years and have come up with their own formulas and methodologies. The best so far is measuring electricity output. This data is not filtered through the government at all and comes to us straight from utilities and consumers like state owned factories. State owned Chinese companies that float shares on the stock market are by and large pretty honest. So here we have good solid data. The most recent Chinese electricity figures show production has been flat quarter on quarter. The GDP data that everybody got so excited about showed an increase well over 7%, not flat. This is very scary.
Long War: In Syria: Independent UN examiners and better media scrutiny than before tells us that the so-called massacre at Tremseh was a simple battle with both sides taking hits, not an atrocity, not a genocide, not a massacre. I said exactly that at the time in this blog the other day. The CIA is manipulating the media in a fantastic manner. Totally awesome.
The rebel FSA army (good guys) is tearing apart Assad Syrian Army (bad guys). The fighting is pushing into the capital city. Assad's army is getting knocked back. This is the most savage fighting yet in the war. The Navy SEALs are kicking nine yards of ass.
Assad has taken all his chemical weapons out of storage and is getting ready to use them. He wants to carve out a separate little country on the coast, where his Alawite clansmen can create a new home and survive the massacre that the Sunni majority will mete out to his people otherwise. In other words, Assad knows he is destined to lose this war and wants to salvage something out of it. That something is the survival of his people. Assad knows what he is up against: the full might of the new Petraeues CIA, a terrifying and implacable foe.
Private economists have been aware of the kinkiness of Chinese data for years and have come up with their own formulas and methodologies. The best so far is measuring electricity output. This data is not filtered through the government at all and comes to us straight from utilities and consumers like state owned factories. State owned Chinese companies that float shares on the stock market are by and large pretty honest. So here we have good solid data. The most recent Chinese electricity figures show production has been flat quarter on quarter. The GDP data that everybody got so excited about showed an increase well over 7%, not flat. This is very scary.
Long War: In Syria: Independent UN examiners and better media scrutiny than before tells us that the so-called massacre at Tremseh was a simple battle with both sides taking hits, not an atrocity, not a genocide, not a massacre. I said exactly that at the time in this blog the other day. The CIA is manipulating the media in a fantastic manner. Totally awesome.
The rebel FSA army (good guys) is tearing apart Assad Syrian Army (bad guys). The fighting is pushing into the capital city. Assad's army is getting knocked back. This is the most savage fighting yet in the war. The Navy SEALs are kicking nine yards of ass.
Assad has taken all his chemical weapons out of storage and is getting ready to use them. He wants to carve out a separate little country on the coast, where his Alawite clansmen can create a new home and survive the massacre that the Sunni majority will mete out to his people otherwise. In other words, Assad knows he is destined to lose this war and wants to salvage something out of it. That something is the survival of his people. Assad knows what he is up against: the full might of the new Petraeues CIA, a terrifying and implacable foe.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Americans Are Warlike, If Carefully Manipulated
Charts: The upward sloping wedge pattern for the broad index has widened and is now an upward sloping trading channel. This is a big improvement because wedge patterns have not worked well in this market. Friday saw a big rally, which repaired some really bad chart patterns, at least for now. For instance, one more big down day would have caused a Death Cross to form in the NYSE composite. Death Crosses result in bear markets 50% of the time. The overall market finished the week flat. Volatility is sky high and has been for almost two years. Up till now extreme volatility has given us sideways action. The flat finish for the week mirrors the flat finish for all of 2011. It seems like we're going somewhere but we're really running in place.
Fundamentals: The reason for the big up day is China's GDP data came in as expected. Traders were afraid it would come in way worse because China is using a new methodology to calculate GDP. The old methodology was super kinky and corrupt. The new one is mildly kinky and corrupt. In China privately owned and state owned companies report economic data to government bureaucrats, who then massage the data to make themselves look better, i.e. they inflate GDP growth and dial back inflation. The new methodology eliminates one layer of crooked bureaucrats. The data still sucks, but not as bad as before.
Long War: Yesterday's Wall Street Journal ran an article titled "Unleash The CIA in Syria." It was written by a retired CIA case officer who still has lots of connections to Langley. He said that the CIA is only a little bit pregnant as far as Syria is concerned and it isn't really that involved in the war. He recommends that the CIA ramp it up. This is great propaganda. It is heartening to see that the CIA is lying to us in such an effective manner. In reality the CIA is full throttle in Syria.
CIA media manipulation is getting better and better. The air waves are full of the latest Syrian attack against a rebel held village. Except it isn't being called an attack by the media but a massacre, genocide, atrocity. All good stuff. Remember, Americans are a warlike people. They just need to be carefully whipped up into a frenzy.
Some aggressive Reuters reporters cornered a couple Syrian rebel military commanders and badgered them about the source of weaponry that the FSA is getting. It turns out that the FSA is getting a surprising amount of firepower from South Africa. Do you remember my last blog? Where I said in the future the CIA would get South Africa involved in the Long War? The future is now. Some weapons are coming from South Africa, but most are coming from former Soviet Bloc countries. Obvious CIA fingerprints. Also, old but high quality sniper rifles are coming from Belgium. More fingerprints, not only CIA but Navy SEAL, because who is training the rebels in sniper techniques except our good friends the frogmen?
Fundamentals: The reason for the big up day is China's GDP data came in as expected. Traders were afraid it would come in way worse because China is using a new methodology to calculate GDP. The old methodology was super kinky and corrupt. The new one is mildly kinky and corrupt. In China privately owned and state owned companies report economic data to government bureaucrats, who then massage the data to make themselves look better, i.e. they inflate GDP growth and dial back inflation. The new methodology eliminates one layer of crooked bureaucrats. The data still sucks, but not as bad as before.
Long War: Yesterday's Wall Street Journal ran an article titled "Unleash The CIA in Syria." It was written by a retired CIA case officer who still has lots of connections to Langley. He said that the CIA is only a little bit pregnant as far as Syria is concerned and it isn't really that involved in the war. He recommends that the CIA ramp it up. This is great propaganda. It is heartening to see that the CIA is lying to us in such an effective manner. In reality the CIA is full throttle in Syria.
CIA media manipulation is getting better and better. The air waves are full of the latest Syrian attack against a rebel held village. Except it isn't being called an attack by the media but a massacre, genocide, atrocity. All good stuff. Remember, Americans are a warlike people. They just need to be carefully whipped up into a frenzy.
Some aggressive Reuters reporters cornered a couple Syrian rebel military commanders and badgered them about the source of weaponry that the FSA is getting. It turns out that the FSA is getting a surprising amount of firepower from South Africa. Do you remember my last blog? Where I said in the future the CIA would get South Africa involved in the Long War? The future is now. Some weapons are coming from South Africa, but most are coming from former Soviet Bloc countries. Obvious CIA fingerprints. Also, old but high quality sniper rifles are coming from Belgium. More fingerprints, not only CIA but Navy SEAL, because who is training the rebels in sniper techniques except our good friends the frogmen?
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Good Things Happen In The Dark
Charts: I am writing this within a few minutes of the opening bell July 12, so we'll see how the market finishes. At the open key technical support at 1333 was shattered. But the next support level of 1328 held. I eyed my puke bucket but didn't actually vommit, then I pushed away from my screen.
Long War: All the "Arab Spring" elections saw Muslim Brotherhood Islamist candidates winning big time and pro-American secular parties losing. Except in one case: Libya. In Libya, the Muslim Brotherhood was slaughtered in the election last weekend. Rebel military leader Mahmond Jibril will be the next PM of Libya.
Let's backtrack and talk about CIA involvement in the Libya War. Besides Western commandos (Navy SEALs and Green Berets) with phony British accents there is reason to believe that many of the air strikes attributed to NATO war planes actually came from CIA drones. At the time this blog dug into evidence supporting this claim and you can scroll down and reread those old blogs if you want; or just trust me that this was the case. Furthermore, oil production came back in Libya ten times faster than petro analysts expected, further evidence to support my assertion. So there was massive CIA involvement in the Libya War.
Military commander Jibril would have then and still does have massive CIA connections. Now look at the election. Even in the towns and villages with overwhelming jihadist presence, the bad guys still lost.
Yet there is no talk of vote rigging or fraud. Somebody is doing a @#$ good job of keeping the bad guys from running Libya.
There has been almost no Pentagon presence in Libya. Just the spooks at Langley.
Now look at Afghanistan. Eight American soldiers were killed in the last few days there. It's pretty screwed up. Yes, I am sounding like a broken record when I say over and over that the only the CIA can win the Long War, not the Pentagon. But this blog is not supposed to be interesting or entertaining.
In 2014 all NATO troops leave Afghanistan. This will be a good thing, the opposite of what most people believe.
Long War: All the "Arab Spring" elections saw Muslim Brotherhood Islamist candidates winning big time and pro-American secular parties losing. Except in one case: Libya. In Libya, the Muslim Brotherhood was slaughtered in the election last weekend. Rebel military leader Mahmond Jibril will be the next PM of Libya.
Let's backtrack and talk about CIA involvement in the Libya War. Besides Western commandos (Navy SEALs and Green Berets) with phony British accents there is reason to believe that many of the air strikes attributed to NATO war planes actually came from CIA drones. At the time this blog dug into evidence supporting this claim and you can scroll down and reread those old blogs if you want; or just trust me that this was the case. Furthermore, oil production came back in Libya ten times faster than petro analysts expected, further evidence to support my assertion. So there was massive CIA involvement in the Libya War.
Military commander Jibril would have then and still does have massive CIA connections. Now look at the election. Even in the towns and villages with overwhelming jihadist presence, the bad guys still lost.
Yet there is no talk of vote rigging or fraud. Somebody is doing a @#$ good job of keeping the bad guys from running Libya.
There has been almost no Pentagon presence in Libya. Just the spooks at Langley.
Now look at Afghanistan. Eight American soldiers were killed in the last few days there. It's pretty screwed up. Yes, I am sounding like a broken record when I say over and over that the only the CIA can win the Long War, not the Pentagon. But this blog is not supposed to be interesting or entertaining.
In 2014 all NATO troops leave Afghanistan. This will be a good thing, the opposite of what most people believe.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Dave's 100-year Long Range LW Forecast
Charts: The S&P 500 plunged downward today, hit 1333, and popped back up to finish flat. 1333 is the final Fibonacci retracement level in the series, a level the market has been struggling with for almost two years. 1333 is the bottom of the trading channel the market has been in for the past couple months. 1333 is also very close to the 50-day moving average. It is impossible to overstate how important it is for the market to find support at 1333. I don't know about you, but I am on my knees praying to the stock market Gods that 1333 holds.
On June 29 the market experienced a follow through day that turned a rally attempt into a technical rally. That was the day that the EU said it will bail out Spanish banks without making the Spanish government liable for these loans.
Fundamentals: EU ministers are squabbling like children about whether the Spanish government is liable for Spanish bank bail outs, even though they seemingly made up their minds that Spain's government is not liable. The fact that the EU can't make up its mind, that it can't shoot straight, puts an icy feeling into my bowels and makes me want to vomit. Luckily I have a puke bucket near my desk, so its all good.
Dave's Long Range LW forecast: A year and a half ago I made my last long range forecast. Back then I said the CIA would build a string of drone bases stretching from the Mideast into North Africa and into the deep Sahara. This is now actually happening. Investing is no place for false modesty. Even though I am normally a modest person, I am forced to admit that I have mad skills at long range geopolitical forecasting. I've got the skills. I've got the tools. And I am putting them to use. Here goes...
For the sake of simplicity let's say the Long War started right after 9/11. In the early years there were only two LW campaigns (or LW wars): Iraq and Afghanistan. Since Iraq has heated up enough to be called a LW campaign once again there are currently 7 LW campaigns: Afghanistan, Pak Tribal Lands, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Mali. There is a clear trend of more wars and they are moving down the African continent. Nigeria is on the verge of tipping into a jihadist guerrilla war, Kenya is heating up, and Sudan is always near a boil.
So two big jihadist pincer movements are creeping down either side of the African continent, pointing at South Africa, the strongest country in Africa by far. South Africa is militantly Christian. The bad guys need the Long War to become a Muslim vs Christian conflict to really light the world on fire. In time they will succeed, unless the CIA really has its shit together. But Petraeus will probably be followed by a weaker Director, so it won't have its shit together. When this weak Director takes over, the wars in Africa will explode. There will be blow back up the continent and Iran will catch fire. When all this happens we will see much bigger wars, the size of Vietnam. By then there will be a third CIA Director and he will be as good as the current one. If the CIA is left alone then countries like South Africa, Ethopia, and Turkey will do most of the fighting. The good guys will win. It will take a few decades to mop up the aftermath. The whole process will take about 100 years.
On June 29 the market experienced a follow through day that turned a rally attempt into a technical rally. That was the day that the EU said it will bail out Spanish banks without making the Spanish government liable for these loans.
Fundamentals: EU ministers are squabbling like children about whether the Spanish government is liable for Spanish bank bail outs, even though they seemingly made up their minds that Spain's government is not liable. The fact that the EU can't make up its mind, that it can't shoot straight, puts an icy feeling into my bowels and makes me want to vomit. Luckily I have a puke bucket near my desk, so its all good.
Dave's Long Range LW forecast: A year and a half ago I made my last long range forecast. Back then I said the CIA would build a string of drone bases stretching from the Mideast into North Africa and into the deep Sahara. This is now actually happening. Investing is no place for false modesty. Even though I am normally a modest person, I am forced to admit that I have mad skills at long range geopolitical forecasting. I've got the skills. I've got the tools. And I am putting them to use. Here goes...
For the sake of simplicity let's say the Long War started right after 9/11. In the early years there were only two LW campaigns (or LW wars): Iraq and Afghanistan. Since Iraq has heated up enough to be called a LW campaign once again there are currently 7 LW campaigns: Afghanistan, Pak Tribal Lands, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, and Mali. There is a clear trend of more wars and they are moving down the African continent. Nigeria is on the verge of tipping into a jihadist guerrilla war, Kenya is heating up, and Sudan is always near a boil.
So two big jihadist pincer movements are creeping down either side of the African continent, pointing at South Africa, the strongest country in Africa by far. South Africa is militantly Christian. The bad guys need the Long War to become a Muslim vs Christian conflict to really light the world on fire. In time they will succeed, unless the CIA really has its shit together. But Petraeus will probably be followed by a weaker Director, so it won't have its shit together. When this weak Director takes over, the wars in Africa will explode. There will be blow back up the continent and Iran will catch fire. When all this happens we will see much bigger wars, the size of Vietnam. By then there will be a third CIA Director and he will be as good as the current one. If the CIA is left alone then countries like South Africa, Ethopia, and Turkey will do most of the fighting. The good guys will win. It will take a few decades to mop up the aftermath. The whole process will take about 100 years.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
CIA Has A Rat In Its Mouth And Is Shaking Hard
Long War: We know that the CIA was heavily involved in the Libyan Civil War because there were a vast number of media reports of Western Special Forces soldiers helping the rebels and these Western soldier all had phony British accents. We don't really need to fish around for CIA fingerprints in Syria because the CIA has openly told the media it is setting up supply lines to the rebels as well as training them in communication. This means Langley is up to its neck in the Syrian War, running every aspect of it.
Assad's Syrian Army is at least ten times more professional than Gaddafi's crappy toy soldier army was before it was annihilated. The Syrian Army is a tough nut to crack. But look what's happening now...
The rebel FSA has control of over half the country. It is tearing the heart out of Assad's army. Neighboring countries besides Turkey are now opening up refugee camps that the FSA will use as military bases, allowing the FSA (good guys) to attack Assad from different angles. Lebanon has moved its army to the Syrian border, threatening Assad and we don't hear a peep out of Hezbollah, Syria's jihadist ally within Lebanon. Assad is proposing a new peace plan to Kofi Annan (the UN peace negotiator). This plan calls for a bunch of little ceasefires in the areas of Syria where Assad's army is losing. Annan took this plan to Assad's boss: the Ayatollah of Iran. The Ayatollah was horrified that Assad is on his knees begging for peace, begging Iran to give him permission to surrender piecemeal. Annan then took this peace plan to Iraq, which is more or less an ally of Iran, a way to apply pressure to Iran. On top of all this Russia says it will stop selling weapons to Syria. Then (incredibly) it practically apologized for its recent weapons sales. Somebody or something is pressuring Russia, threatening Russia in a way that is scaring the evil old bear. I don't want to speculate how Russia is being pressured but we saw jihadist attacks within China a couple years ago that seemed to bear CIA fingerprints.
If the FSA rebels are winning, then the war will get bigger and nastier because the good guys are going to want to slaughter the bad guys when and if they achieve victory, a horrific bloodbath. The bad guys know this and will therefore fight to the last man.
Yes, the good guys will commit genocide, just as the good guys carpet-bombed Germany in WW II, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children. This isn't a Hollywood movie where the good guys wear white hats and never do anything morally confusing. This is the Long War, a century-long nightmare that is only just beginning.
What we are seeing is a sort of Petraeus Doctrine, where assets are siphoned off of less important Long War battlefields, funneled into the one crucial battlefield, and then these assets are used without mercy in a savage offensive that involves multiple layers of complexity.
Assad's Syrian Army is at least ten times more professional than Gaddafi's crappy toy soldier army was before it was annihilated. The Syrian Army is a tough nut to crack. But look what's happening now...
The rebel FSA has control of over half the country. It is tearing the heart out of Assad's army. Neighboring countries besides Turkey are now opening up refugee camps that the FSA will use as military bases, allowing the FSA (good guys) to attack Assad from different angles. Lebanon has moved its army to the Syrian border, threatening Assad and we don't hear a peep out of Hezbollah, Syria's jihadist ally within Lebanon. Assad is proposing a new peace plan to Kofi Annan (the UN peace negotiator). This plan calls for a bunch of little ceasefires in the areas of Syria where Assad's army is losing. Annan took this plan to Assad's boss: the Ayatollah of Iran. The Ayatollah was horrified that Assad is on his knees begging for peace, begging Iran to give him permission to surrender piecemeal. Annan then took this peace plan to Iraq, which is more or less an ally of Iran, a way to apply pressure to Iran. On top of all this Russia says it will stop selling weapons to Syria. Then (incredibly) it practically apologized for its recent weapons sales. Somebody or something is pressuring Russia, threatening Russia in a way that is scaring the evil old bear. I don't want to speculate how Russia is being pressured but we saw jihadist attacks within China a couple years ago that seemed to bear CIA fingerprints.
If the FSA rebels are winning, then the war will get bigger and nastier because the good guys are going to want to slaughter the bad guys when and if they achieve victory, a horrific bloodbath. The bad guys know this and will therefore fight to the last man.
Yes, the good guys will commit genocide, just as the good guys carpet-bombed Germany in WW II, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent women and children. This isn't a Hollywood movie where the good guys wear white hats and never do anything morally confusing. This is the Long War, a century-long nightmare that is only just beginning.
What we are seeing is a sort of Petraeus Doctrine, where assets are siphoned off of less important Long War battlefields, funneled into the one crucial battlefield, and then these assets are used without mercy in a savage offensive that involves multiple layers of complexity.
Monday, July 9, 2012
No, We Don't Worship the CIA
Long War: A video has gone viral showing an Afghani woman being executed by the Taliban for adultery. Her adulterous act was to be raped over the course of several months by two Taliban commanders. She probably started fighting back, which pissed off the two commanders, hence the charge of adultery. This all took place only a few miles from Kabul, well away from the parts of Afghanistan under complete Taliban control. The woman's sentence was handed down by a Taliban court controlled by the two commanders. These courts are much more popular than official government courts because in matters of property and business they are virtually corruption free. In other words, if my neighbor builds a fence on my goat pasture, then a Taliban court will force the fence to be removed without shaking me down. A government court will demand a bribe, but it will leave the fence up if my neighbor can pay a bigger bribe. So if I am a goat herder in Afghanistan, then I will respect and obey the Taliban if I can keep my head down in my personal life, keep my wife and daughters covered head to toe and indoors all the time.
The Taliban leaders can afford to be corruption free in their governance because they make huge money in the heroin trade. Shaking down a small goat herder is unnecessary when you are making huge money selling narcotics.
What this means is that the Pentagon, the Army and the USMC, can never win the war in Afghanistan. There is only one way to win the war: The CIA has to create its own Taliban, one that it can control, and then this organization has to take over the heroin trade and the Taliban court system. This can only happen when NATO leaves the country, international aid stops, NGOs leave, and the media leaves. In the darkness of benign neglect the CIA can easily win the war, like falling off a log. This is how the CIA won the Cold War. It is a proven formula. It is not appealing. It is morally questionable. The only thing it has going for it is that it works and will bring peace and prosperity to a war torn planet.
Kofi Anan (the UN point man for Syria) says he has made a breakthrough in negotiating with Assad and has just arrived in Iran to peddle whatever deal he has come up with to Syria's boss, the Ayatollah. Maybe this is a big breakthrough and maybe not. For the sake of argument let's say it is a breakthrough. It has come about because the CIA is running the war in Syria and it is not playing by the Boy Scout Pentagon rule book. For example, the CIA almost succeeded in getting Turkey to attack Assad's government, which certainly scared the crap out of the tin pot dictator.
In Libya election results are coming in and the Islamist parties are taking it on the chin. Probably the election there was not fair. It was probably rigged by our good friends in Langley. Again, the Boy Scout, Dudley Doright, rule book is not widely read by the spooks in Langley. They don't play fair. They don't fight fair. The kick you in the balls, pull your hair, say you started it all, and everybody believes them. Not Kosher. Not cool. Not cricket.
We don't worship the CIA. We don't think they walk on water. All we are saying here is that they are the right tool for the job at hand: winning the @#$%& Long War.
The Taliban leaders can afford to be corruption free in their governance because they make huge money in the heroin trade. Shaking down a small goat herder is unnecessary when you are making huge money selling narcotics.
What this means is that the Pentagon, the Army and the USMC, can never win the war in Afghanistan. There is only one way to win the war: The CIA has to create its own Taliban, one that it can control, and then this organization has to take over the heroin trade and the Taliban court system. This can only happen when NATO leaves the country, international aid stops, NGOs leave, and the media leaves. In the darkness of benign neglect the CIA can easily win the war, like falling off a log. This is how the CIA won the Cold War. It is a proven formula. It is not appealing. It is morally questionable. The only thing it has going for it is that it works and will bring peace and prosperity to a war torn planet.
Kofi Anan (the UN point man for Syria) says he has made a breakthrough in negotiating with Assad and has just arrived in Iran to peddle whatever deal he has come up with to Syria's boss, the Ayatollah. Maybe this is a big breakthrough and maybe not. For the sake of argument let's say it is a breakthrough. It has come about because the CIA is running the war in Syria and it is not playing by the Boy Scout Pentagon rule book. For example, the CIA almost succeeded in getting Turkey to attack Assad's government, which certainly scared the crap out of the tin pot dictator.
In Libya election results are coming in and the Islamist parties are taking it on the chin. Probably the election there was not fair. It was probably rigged by our good friends in Langley. Again, the Boy Scout, Dudley Doright, rule book is not widely read by the spooks in Langley. They don't play fair. They don't fight fair. The kick you in the balls, pull your hair, say you started it all, and everybody believes them. Not Kosher. Not cool. Not cricket.
We don't worship the CIA. We don't think they walk on water. All we are saying here is that they are the right tool for the job at hand: winning the @#$%& Long War.
Friday, July 6, 2012
A Tale of Two Geniuses
Charts: The S&P 500 has formed an upward sloping wedge pattern. The outer boundaries currently for the wedge are 1364 on the top and 1334 on the bottom. When the index last hit the upper band of this wedge it formed a Doji Candle; this minor chart pattern within the larger wedge means that buyers and sellers are evenly divided on the overall direction of the market (as a group they are confused). The Doji Candle formation magnifies the importance of a break below the wedge, meaning further losses are likely if 1334 is breached. If the market breaks up out of the wedge, then further gains are likely with resistance at 1392. Wedge patterns in general mean that investors are confused. The current bull market has created lots of wedge patterns because we are in a time of maximum confusion and uncertainty.
Long War: When Osama Bin Laden was in charge of Al-Qaeda he stressed the importance of always attacking America above all else. OBL felt this way for religious reasons, i.e. America is the Great Satan and everything else is small potatoes. Back in the day, Al-Qaeda's #2, Zawahri, counseled against attacking America, and urged his peeps to get busy carving out pieces of the Caliphate in Africa by stressing cooperation among AQ affiliates.
Zawahri is now in charge of AQ. He is a military geniuses of the highest caliber. He invented the concept of suicide bombing, which entails religious education for children tailored to this end as well as all other aspects of Islamic culture in a given society. Essentially, every successful terror tactic in existence was invented by Zawahri.
Zawahri has at last fully taken the reins of the global terror network and his policy of local AQ chapters working together is bearing fruit. One example: Al-Qaeda in Iraq is sending huge numbers of fighters into Syria in an attempt at co-opting the rebellion there. I think the CIA has deliberately left the door open in Iraq for the bad guys, hoping they will commit acts of terror in Iraq, not in Syria. This is sort of working.
There are other examples. In Nigeria bad guys from Boko Haram are being caught who are clearly funded by AQIM. Funding is flowing into Al-Qaeda in Britain and bad guys are being caught there with their hands in the terror jar. This latter move is brilliant because Zawahri can say to the old diehards that loved OBL, "Yo dudes, I know you are itching to strike America, but take that energy and strike Britain instead, they both fit under the rubric of Great Satan and the Limeys are bunch of sissies who won't hit us back."
Zawahri doesn't want to strike America because he doesn't want to awaken a sleeping giant. He simply wants to build the Caliphate one country at a time, patiently carving out little jihadist kingdoms like Mali. Smart.
So the planet is a giant chessboard with CIA director Petraeus moving against Zawahri, two of the greatest military minds to have ever existed.
Long War: When Osama Bin Laden was in charge of Al-Qaeda he stressed the importance of always attacking America above all else. OBL felt this way for religious reasons, i.e. America is the Great Satan and everything else is small potatoes. Back in the day, Al-Qaeda's #2, Zawahri, counseled against attacking America, and urged his peeps to get busy carving out pieces of the Caliphate in Africa by stressing cooperation among AQ affiliates.
Zawahri is now in charge of AQ. He is a military geniuses of the highest caliber. He invented the concept of suicide bombing, which entails religious education for children tailored to this end as well as all other aspects of Islamic culture in a given society. Essentially, every successful terror tactic in existence was invented by Zawahri.
Zawahri has at last fully taken the reins of the global terror network and his policy of local AQ chapters working together is bearing fruit. One example: Al-Qaeda in Iraq is sending huge numbers of fighters into Syria in an attempt at co-opting the rebellion there. I think the CIA has deliberately left the door open in Iraq for the bad guys, hoping they will commit acts of terror in Iraq, not in Syria. This is sort of working.
There are other examples. In Nigeria bad guys from Boko Haram are being caught who are clearly funded by AQIM. Funding is flowing into Al-Qaeda in Britain and bad guys are being caught there with their hands in the terror jar. This latter move is brilliant because Zawahri can say to the old diehards that loved OBL, "Yo dudes, I know you are itching to strike America, but take that energy and strike Britain instead, they both fit under the rubric of Great Satan and the Limeys are bunch of sissies who won't hit us back."
Zawahri doesn't want to strike America because he doesn't want to awaken a sleeping giant. He simply wants to build the Caliphate one country at a time, patiently carving out little jihadist kingdoms like Mali. Smart.
So the planet is a giant chessboard with CIA director Petraeus moving against Zawahri, two of the greatest military minds to have ever existed.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Syria and Iraq
A couple months ago the CIA said it was pulling entirely out of Iraq. Since then jihadist violence has spiked in the desert country, this means the CIA was telling the truth and it really has pulled out of Iraq. At the time this announcement was made I speculated that the Iraqi CIA officers would mostly go to Afghanistan. I seem to be wrong with my first guess. It now seems more likely that the Iraqi CIA contingent is focused on Syria and letting the bad guys run rampant in Iraq.
The reason I think this is because Al-Qaeda in Iraq has taken the lead in injecting jihadist fighters into the Syrian Civil War. This means CIA operatives with experience fighting AQII in Iraq are the best qualified to fight AQII in Syria. And AQII has been mostly shut down in Syria. After making a big splash, suicide (Al-Qaeda style) attacks are way down in Syria.
But suicide attacks are way up in Iraq. The CIA can't be everywhere so it is making a trade-off.
Meanwhile, in the primary war zone, Syria has for three days in a row buzzed the Turkish border with helicopters, mostly troop transporters, probably stuffed with convicts in military uniforms. Each time Syria buzzes the Turkish border, the Turkish Air Force scrambles fighter jets, who line up to shoot down the Syrian helicopters. So far the Turks have not yet fired because the Syrian choppers are turning around once they are threatened by the Turkish Air Force.
While all this is going on Iran is test firing missiles designed to hit Israel and beating its chest with anti-Israeli rhetoric.
Then Syrian dictator Assad says the Turkish F4 his people shot down earlier this week looked like an Israeli fighter on Syrian radar screens. They could practically see Stars of Davids on those screens, the Israeli vibe was that strong from the Turkish fighter.
The reason I think this is because Al-Qaeda in Iraq has taken the lead in injecting jihadist fighters into the Syrian Civil War. This means CIA operatives with experience fighting AQII in Iraq are the best qualified to fight AQII in Syria. And AQII has been mostly shut down in Syria. After making a big splash, suicide (Al-Qaeda style) attacks are way down in Syria.
But suicide attacks are way up in Iraq. The CIA can't be everywhere so it is making a trade-off.
Meanwhile, in the primary war zone, Syria has for three days in a row buzzed the Turkish border with helicopters, mostly troop transporters, probably stuffed with convicts in military uniforms. Each time Syria buzzes the Turkish border, the Turkish Air Force scrambles fighter jets, who line up to shoot down the Syrian helicopters. So far the Turks have not yet fired because the Syrian choppers are turning around once they are threatened by the Turkish Air Force.
While all this is going on Iran is test firing missiles designed to hit Israel and beating its chest with anti-Israeli rhetoric.
Then Syrian dictator Assad says the Turkish F4 his people shot down earlier this week looked like an Israeli fighter on Syrian radar screens. They could practically see Stars of Davids on those screens, the Israeli vibe was that strong from the Turkish fighter.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Long War
Turkey has moved missile batteries, anti-aircraft guns, and other military assets to its border with Syria. The Turkish Prime Minister said yesterday that his country will "support the liberation of Syria" from Assad's dictatorship. At that point Turkey was a heartbeat away from declaring war on Syria. I remind you that Turkey is roughly ten times more powerful than Syria and would win easily in a few months. Turkey would then have to occupy Syria for several years just as America had to occupy Iraq after a short conventional war. Long War occupations involve messy guerilla wars.
Syria has massed 170 tanks around a non-descript rebel held town that is right next to the buffer zone inside Syria that Turkey is drawing red lines under. Turkey is saying that Syria cannot engage in military activity within a buffer zone near the Syrian/Turkish border, or else. Syria does not need 170 tanks to retake the non-descript rebel town. It looks as though Syria is responding to the Turkish military build-up along the border with its own build-up.
With these two militaries building forces along their mutual border, and the Turkish PM all but declaring war, it did indeed look like a war was in the offing. At the height of all this tension, Russia said (in obtuse diplomatic language) that Assad should go. This would have been a huge breakthrough since Russia and Iran are Syria's only real allies. But then the Turkish PM backed off in his bellicosity and tensions ebbed. Russia then changed its mind and threw support back to Assad.
In Yemen, Al-Qaeda has been blasted out of the towns, cities, and villages that it once held. A gigantic whack-a-mole is taking place, where bad guys are leaving Yemen for other locales. At first it looked like the bad guys were mostly going to Somalia to join Al-Shabab. But the Somali Army stepped on Al-Shabab hard and conquered (liberated) a bad guy village three days ago. Yemeni officials are now saying most of the Yemeni bad guys are going to Oman, an Arab country sharing a border with Yemen. Oman has had almost no jihadist activity up till now so its security forces are weak, a good place to set up shop.
In Mali, Al-Qaeda has blasted the Tuareg rebels (good guys) out of all major towns in northern Mali. AQIM and its affilates have been massively reinforced by jihadist fighters from all over the globe including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mali is very important for the bad guys and they are putting a lot of effort into this fire zone.
There are six major LW wars taking place right now: Afghanistan, Pakistan Tribal Lands, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, and Mali. The good guys are stretched thin and there doesn't seem to be much help for the Tuareg rebels in Mali.
Syria has massed 170 tanks around a non-descript rebel held town that is right next to the buffer zone inside Syria that Turkey is drawing red lines under. Turkey is saying that Syria cannot engage in military activity within a buffer zone near the Syrian/Turkish border, or else. Syria does not need 170 tanks to retake the non-descript rebel town. It looks as though Syria is responding to the Turkish military build-up along the border with its own build-up.
With these two militaries building forces along their mutual border, and the Turkish PM all but declaring war, it did indeed look like a war was in the offing. At the height of all this tension, Russia said (in obtuse diplomatic language) that Assad should go. This would have been a huge breakthrough since Russia and Iran are Syria's only real allies. But then the Turkish PM backed off in his bellicosity and tensions ebbed. Russia then changed its mind and threw support back to Assad.
In Yemen, Al-Qaeda has been blasted out of the towns, cities, and villages that it once held. A gigantic whack-a-mole is taking place, where bad guys are leaving Yemen for other locales. At first it looked like the bad guys were mostly going to Somalia to join Al-Shabab. But the Somali Army stepped on Al-Shabab hard and conquered (liberated) a bad guy village three days ago. Yemeni officials are now saying most of the Yemeni bad guys are going to Oman, an Arab country sharing a border with Yemen. Oman has had almost no jihadist activity up till now so its security forces are weak, a good place to set up shop.
In Mali, Al-Qaeda has blasted the Tuareg rebels (good guys) out of all major towns in northern Mali. AQIM and its affilates have been massively reinforced by jihadist fighters from all over the globe including Pakistan and Afghanistan. Mali is very important for the bad guys and they are putting a lot of effort into this fire zone.
There are six major LW wars taking place right now: Afghanistan, Pakistan Tribal Lands, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, and Mali. The good guys are stretched thin and there doesn't seem to be much help for the Tuareg rebels in Mali.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Black Opps
Long War: The White House says it abhors the violence on both sides of the Syrian Civil War. Both sides should just stop fighting is official US policy.
The CIA is telling the press corp a different story than the White House. It admits to taking sides and to the fact that it is training the Free Syria Army. The CIA goes on to say the training is only in communication technology. Almost sorrowfully the CIA further admits that it is also building supply lines for the FSA and training the rebels in logistics. When the CIA admits to that kind of backing for a rebel army, then it is safe to assume that what it is actually doing is ten times greater than what it admits in public. This is why the FSA is knocking on the doors of the Presidential palace in Damascus.
Al Qaeda in Mali attacked a Toureg village and conquered it, turning a Toureg town into an Al-Qaeda town. A war has started between the Toureg rebels and Al-Qaeda, which is a good thing, before AQIM had no enemies shooting at them. It is not good that Al-Qaeda struck the first blow but this war is young and we will have to see what the Toureg do as far as a counter-offensive. If they could take their town back that would be positive.
It is obvious that the CIA is once again stretched thin. It should however be able to tap into resources with the African Union as far as Mali is concerned. As you will recall the AU is getting ready to train 3,000 soldiers for the express purpose of attacking Al-Qaeda in Mali. The AU claims that it cannot attack the bad guys in Mali without UN approval and funding. I think if the funding were to materialize the issue of UN approval would go away since there is a shooting war going on within rebel held Mali and Petraeus would find a way to use the AU soldiers under these circumstances, i.e. Al-Qaeda could win the war if he did nothing.
In the 1950s the CIA ran hundreds of secret private sector companies that were highly profitable. It would us those profits to run covert opps without Congressional approval. Also in the 50s it could raise huge sums by shaking down governments, gangsters, and business. I wonder how it is raising money for black opps today?
The CIA is telling the press corp a different story than the White House. It admits to taking sides and to the fact that it is training the Free Syria Army. The CIA goes on to say the training is only in communication technology. Almost sorrowfully the CIA further admits that it is also building supply lines for the FSA and training the rebels in logistics. When the CIA admits to that kind of backing for a rebel army, then it is safe to assume that what it is actually doing is ten times greater than what it admits in public. This is why the FSA is knocking on the doors of the Presidential palace in Damascus.
Al Qaeda in Mali attacked a Toureg village and conquered it, turning a Toureg town into an Al-Qaeda town. A war has started between the Toureg rebels and Al-Qaeda, which is a good thing, before AQIM had no enemies shooting at them. It is not good that Al-Qaeda struck the first blow but this war is young and we will have to see what the Toureg do as far as a counter-offensive. If they could take their town back that would be positive.
It is obvious that the CIA is once again stretched thin. It should however be able to tap into resources with the African Union as far as Mali is concerned. As you will recall the AU is getting ready to train 3,000 soldiers for the express purpose of attacking Al-Qaeda in Mali. The AU claims that it cannot attack the bad guys in Mali without UN approval and funding. I think if the funding were to materialize the issue of UN approval would go away since there is a shooting war going on within rebel held Mali and Petraeus would find a way to use the AU soldiers under these circumstances, i.e. Al-Qaeda could win the war if he did nothing.
In the 1950s the CIA ran hundreds of secret private sector companies that were highly profitable. It would us those profits to run covert opps without Congressional approval. Also in the 50s it could raise huge sums by shaking down governments, gangsters, and business. I wonder how it is raising money for black opps today?
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Super Warriors
Long War: I blew it yesterday with my instant analysis of the Syrian military leadership defection to Turkey. I said the defectors helped shoot down the Turkish F4 jet. In reality the defectors were probably selling or giving weapons to the rebels. The general who defected was in charge of munition storage. He would have access to military supplies and probably was funneling ammo to the good guys. He probably figured that the heat would be on for any turncoat Syrian officer who was taking money from the CIA and helping the rebels. He and 199 other people (biggest defection yet) all skipped town and landed up in Turkey. So a valuable asset in country has been lost.
The US general in charge of Africa Command says that AQIM, Al-Shabab, and Bokom Haram have melded into a single entity, the co-operation is that close. They are shuttling fighters from one battlefield to another, sharing hardware, making bombs together, and sharing money. The three Islamic militias mentioned above constitute 90% of the jihadist firepower in Africa. And this new jihadist super-organization evolving in Africa has the country of Mali right smack dab in the middle of their stomping grounds. AQIM owns about half of Mali. So AQIM is the new power in Africa.
On that note, AQIM's partner in Mali, the Toureg rebels, have turned on the jihadists at least to some degree because Toureg rebels have been firing on AQIM positions in Mali. A low level war seems to be emerging between the non-jihadist Toureg rebels and AQIM in Mali. The Touregs and AQIM were partners when they took over 2/3 of Mali but now they are enemies. I count this as the CIA fingerprint of the day.
In Syria, Turkey has changed its rules of engagement vis a vis Syria. Now any Syrian war vehicle approaching the Turkish border in an aggressive manner can be fired upon by the Turkish Army. The old rules of engagement said a Syrian war vehicle would have had to penetrate Turkey's border before being fired upon. So under current rules Turkey can shoot Syrian tanks and planes even if the vehicles are still in Syria. This means that if the CIA has another rogue cell of treasonous officers in the Syrian Army, then it will have a much easier time goading Turkey into declaring war on Syria because of this rule change.
Also in Syria, the FSA is tearing into the Syrian Army like an enraged grizzly. We are seeing evidence of super warriors on the battlefield. Syrian tanks are being devoured by itty-bitty little hand held rocket launchers because somebody can wield weapons like this in a super warrior fashion, i.e. popping up from a concealed position that had been established a week ago and stuffing anti-tank missiles up the exhaust pipes of an entire armored platoon, you know super warrior stuff. What is another word for super-warrior? SEALS.
The US general in charge of Africa Command says that AQIM, Al-Shabab, and Bokom Haram have melded into a single entity, the co-operation is that close. They are shuttling fighters from one battlefield to another, sharing hardware, making bombs together, and sharing money. The three Islamic militias mentioned above constitute 90% of the jihadist firepower in Africa. And this new jihadist super-organization evolving in Africa has the country of Mali right smack dab in the middle of their stomping grounds. AQIM owns about half of Mali. So AQIM is the new power in Africa.
On that note, AQIM's partner in Mali, the Toureg rebels, have turned on the jihadists at least to some degree because Toureg rebels have been firing on AQIM positions in Mali. A low level war seems to be emerging between the non-jihadist Toureg rebels and AQIM in Mali. The Touregs and AQIM were partners when they took over 2/3 of Mali but now they are enemies. I count this as the CIA fingerprint of the day.
In Syria, Turkey has changed its rules of engagement vis a vis Syria. Now any Syrian war vehicle approaching the Turkish border in an aggressive manner can be fired upon by the Turkish Army. The old rules of engagement said a Syrian war vehicle would have had to penetrate Turkey's border before being fired upon. So under current rules Turkey can shoot Syrian tanks and planes even if the vehicles are still in Syria. This means that if the CIA has another rogue cell of treasonous officers in the Syrian Army, then it will have a much easier time goading Turkey into declaring war on Syria because of this rule change.
Also in Syria, the FSA is tearing into the Syrian Army like an enraged grizzly. We are seeing evidence of super warriors on the battlefield. Syrian tanks are being devoured by itty-bitty little hand held rocket launchers because somebody can wield weapons like this in a super warrior fashion, i.e. popping up from a concealed position that had been established a week ago and stuffing anti-tank missiles up the exhaust pipes of an entire armored platoon, you know super warrior stuff. What is another word for super-warrior? SEALS.
Monday, June 25, 2012
Screaming Fingerprints
Long War: For nearly five decades there was close to a 100% corelation between the fortunes of America in the Cold War and the global stock market. If the US was winning the Cold War stocks went up. When the US was losing stocks went down. Not so with the Long War. It only has a tight corelation with the stock market when Long War conflict is obvioulsy affecting the price of oil. Long War combat that is far away from oil fields and doesn't directly involve Iran isn't (for now) having a very big impact on stock prices.
That will change. Stocks markets will not ignore major Long War developments forever, so we need to keep the eye on the ball and understand what's happening in the global war zone.
Turkey has called a meeting of the NATO war council. Turkey is saying Syria shot down a Turkish F4 fighter over international waters. The downed jet is under thousands of feet of water so Syria can't touch it and probably Turkey can't either. Probably only the US can locate and recover the downed jet. So the US could prove one way or the other if the jet was shot down in international waters.
If the F4 didn't penetrate Syrian air space, then Turkey can press NATO into taking military action against Syria. Turkey itself is more likely to take military action depending on how the US handles the recovery of the downed jet.
Yesterday several top Syrian military officers defected to Turkey. It is likely that these officers had something to do with ordering the F4 shot down and they are getting out of Dodge.
The defecting officers are strong evidence that the CIA had something (or everything) to do with Syria's insane desicion to try and goad Turkey into declaring war on Syria.
That will change. Stocks markets will not ignore major Long War developments forever, so we need to keep the eye on the ball and understand what's happening in the global war zone.
Turkey has called a meeting of the NATO war council. Turkey is saying Syria shot down a Turkish F4 fighter over international waters. The downed jet is under thousands of feet of water so Syria can't touch it and probably Turkey can't either. Probably only the US can locate and recover the downed jet. So the US could prove one way or the other if the jet was shot down in international waters.
If the F4 didn't penetrate Syrian air space, then Turkey can press NATO into taking military action against Syria. Turkey itself is more likely to take military action depending on how the US handles the recovery of the downed jet.
Yesterday several top Syrian military officers defected to Turkey. It is likely that these officers had something to do with ordering the F4 shot down and they are getting out of Dodge.
The defecting officers are strong evidence that the CIA had something (or everything) to do with Syria's insane desicion to try and goad Turkey into declaring war on Syria.
Sunday, June 24, 2012
Whack-a-Mole and Donut Crumbs
Long War: The African Union has not eliminated Al-Shabab in Somalia. The bad guys still control a few villages even though the position they once held of dominating the entire country has been shattered. Eliminating those few remaining Al-Shabab villages seemed as though it would be a mere mopping up operation.
The mopping up has gotten tougher as fighters from Yemen are being chased out of country by a ferocious good guy offensive and landing in Somalia, well-armed, pissed off and ready to fight. Al-Shabab is offering a home to the rats fleeing the last battles of the Yemen War. Clearly resources will have to be channeled to the AU offensive in Somalia because the whack-a-mole effect is bolstering the bad guys there.
But in Yemen its doesn't look so good for the bad guys. The Yemeni Army is now opening up access to oil producing regions that Al-Qaeda had blocked off. Soon oil revenue will start flowing back into the Yemeni government and the Yemeni Army. This will allow the Yemeni offensive to continue. The next target will be the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in northern Yemen. But Al-Qaeda is not dead yet in Yemen, even though it has lost all the towns and cities it once controlled. From hilltop hideaways the bad guys have mounted a desperate campaign to kill top Yemeni generals. In fact last week they assassinated the number one general. There is a lot of fighting ahead for this war torn nation.
But Al-Qaeda is crumbling in Yemen and this is triggering a big whack-a-mole effect, where bad guys flee one battlefield to pop up in another. Bad guys will eventually be flowing into Mali from Somalia and Yemen as the good guys keep winning their respective wars. This means the Mali War (which is still a couple years away from starting) will be bigger than most people think. Naturally Petareus will not be caught by surprise.
The Syrian Air Force shot down a Turkish jet. It is likely that the Turkish jet was not even in Syrian air space. Turkey is ten times stronger than Syria. Turkey is already the host country for the rebel Free Syria Army, giving the FSA bases and a safe haven to fight from. In other words, Turkey is already halfway declaring war on Syria as it is. If the upper levels of Syria's leadership deliberately provoked Turkey by shooting down that fighter jet, then the Syrian leadership is 100% insane. But this is not the case, they are not insane. This means a Syrian Air Force officer or several officers are insane. But this probably isn't true either. So what are we left with to explain the downed jet?
How about a couple of Syrian Air Force officers are undergoing plastic surgery and are getting ready to open donut shops in San Diego? How about this jet getting shot down is another example of CIA fingerprints, very sticky and crusted with donut crumbs?
The mopping up has gotten tougher as fighters from Yemen are being chased out of country by a ferocious good guy offensive and landing in Somalia, well-armed, pissed off and ready to fight. Al-Shabab is offering a home to the rats fleeing the last battles of the Yemen War. Clearly resources will have to be channeled to the AU offensive in Somalia because the whack-a-mole effect is bolstering the bad guys there.
But in Yemen its doesn't look so good for the bad guys. The Yemeni Army is now opening up access to oil producing regions that Al-Qaeda had blocked off. Soon oil revenue will start flowing back into the Yemeni government and the Yemeni Army. This will allow the Yemeni offensive to continue. The next target will be the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels in northern Yemen. But Al-Qaeda is not dead yet in Yemen, even though it has lost all the towns and cities it once controlled. From hilltop hideaways the bad guys have mounted a desperate campaign to kill top Yemeni generals. In fact last week they assassinated the number one general. There is a lot of fighting ahead for this war torn nation.
But Al-Qaeda is crumbling in Yemen and this is triggering a big whack-a-mole effect, where bad guys flee one battlefield to pop up in another. Bad guys will eventually be flowing into Mali from Somalia and Yemen as the good guys keep winning their respective wars. This means the Mali War (which is still a couple years away from starting) will be bigger than most people think. Naturally Petareus will not be caught by surprise.
The Syrian Air Force shot down a Turkish jet. It is likely that the Turkish jet was not even in Syrian air space. Turkey is ten times stronger than Syria. Turkey is already the host country for the rebel Free Syria Army, giving the FSA bases and a safe haven to fight from. In other words, Turkey is already halfway declaring war on Syria as it is. If the upper levels of Syria's leadership deliberately provoked Turkey by shooting down that fighter jet, then the Syrian leadership is 100% insane. But this is not the case, they are not insane. This means a Syrian Air Force officer or several officers are insane. But this probably isn't true either. So what are we left with to explain the downed jet?
How about a couple of Syrian Air Force officers are undergoing plastic surgery and are getting ready to open donut shops in San Diego? How about this jet getting shot down is another example of CIA fingerprints, very sticky and crusted with donut crumbs?
Sunday, June 17, 2012
War In Mali
Long War: As you will recall I blogged a few days ago about the African Union being willing to wage war against Al-Qaeda (AQIM) in Mali. At the time I said the AU wanted $200 million to crush the bad guys in Mali and we would likely see CIA fingerprints in funding efforts for this proposed war.
Over the weekend the AU announced that the task force destined to launch an invasion into the AQIM stronghold in Mali has a name. It is called the Mali Intervention Force (MIF). Three AU member countries countries are raising forces for the MIF: Nigeria, Niger, and Senegal. Apparently about 3,000 troops have been hived off from these national armies and will soon be given to the nascent MIF, at that point mission planning will get underway. All this makes me think that the CIA has scrounged up enough money to get the project started, maybe $10-20 million if I had to guess.
The AU says that the MIF will not attack AQIM in Mali without UN Security Council approval. Russia and China probably won't allow MIF to go to war in Mali until the Syrian War has come to more of a tipping point and on its way to being resolved one way or the other. It will take a while to get Syria resolved so UN approval will be slow in coming for the proposed Mali War.
But we've seen Petraeus jump over hurdles like this before. If he has an army on the border of Mali and a clear funding source, then he will use that army with UN permission or without.
Boko Haram is an Al-Qaeda franchisee in Nigeria. It is separate from AQIM but obviously a close ally. Boko Haram launched big terror strikes in Nigeria when the existence of MIF was announced. If these terror strikes continue Nigeria is going to want to get MIF fighting in Mali sooner rather than later plus do something more about Boko Haram.
We can see that the Mali War will spread right away into Nigeria and probably other countries as well. I get the feeling that this war will be bigger than most geopolitical analysts are currently projecting.
Over the weekend the AU announced that the task force destined to launch an invasion into the AQIM stronghold in Mali has a name. It is called the Mali Intervention Force (MIF). Three AU member countries countries are raising forces for the MIF: Nigeria, Niger, and Senegal. Apparently about 3,000 troops have been hived off from these national armies and will soon be given to the nascent MIF, at that point mission planning will get underway. All this makes me think that the CIA has scrounged up enough money to get the project started, maybe $10-20 million if I had to guess.
The AU says that the MIF will not attack AQIM in Mali without UN Security Council approval. Russia and China probably won't allow MIF to go to war in Mali until the Syrian War has come to more of a tipping point and on its way to being resolved one way or the other. It will take a while to get Syria resolved so UN approval will be slow in coming for the proposed Mali War.
But we've seen Petraeus jump over hurdles like this before. If he has an army on the border of Mali and a clear funding source, then he will use that army with UN permission or without.
Boko Haram is an Al-Qaeda franchisee in Nigeria. It is separate from AQIM but obviously a close ally. Boko Haram launched big terror strikes in Nigeria when the existence of MIF was announced. If these terror strikes continue Nigeria is going to want to get MIF fighting in Mali sooner rather than later plus do something more about Boko Haram.
We can see that the Mali War will spread right away into Nigeria and probably other countries as well. I get the feeling that this war will be bigger than most geopolitical analysts are currently projecting.
Friday, June 15, 2012
Fingerprints
Long War: The CIA is not perfect. It told Hillary Clinton that Russia was sending a shipload of attack helicopters to Syria. In reality the shipload of attack helicopters are old choppers that Syria has owned for a long time and Russia rebuilt to be just like new. This sounds like a trivial distinction but it is actually a big blunder. Besides rebuilt helicopters and a bunch of other weapons, Russia is sending troops to the war torn nation (scary). The CIA blunder on the choppers makes it harder for the US State Department to scream bloody murder over the fact that Russia is sending troops in country. The number of Russian troops being sent is very small and there is almost no chance they will see combat supporting Assad, nevertheless this is a pretty ballsy move on the part of the Russians. They are crossing swords with the CIA, so they better watch their ass or it will get handed back to them on a platter.
Yes, we can point to a blunder, but overall the CIA is kicking nine yards of ass. Overnight the Yemeni Army flattened another Al-Qaeda fortress city. The internet is filled with images of liberated villagers dancing in the streets after being freed from the tyranny of the human monsters called Al-Qaeda. It looks like the aftermath of the US Army liberating Paris from the Nazis, powerful good propaganda.
The Yemeni Army is massing around the town of Azzan. This will be the last big battle of the conventional phase of this war. It might be the biggest battle yet. Over the last few weeks the Yemeni Army has killed about 50 Al-Qaeda soldiers and fighters a day. It is a relentless Al-Qaeda killing machine, spitting out dead bad guys like an assembly line.
In the rest of the Long War that is controlled by the CIA we continue to see fingerprints, coming at us in a fast and furious pace. There seems to be a sort of CIA blitz going on. It does indeed look like somebody took the muzzle off the attack dog. In fact it seems as though somebody took the muzzle off the attack dog and then whispered in its ear: "I'm sorry for muzzling you. Please make up for lost time by attacking every global jihadist problem with everything you've got." It seems like somebody wants to get reelected.
Here is the fingerprint of the day: Right before the big vote this weekend, the Egyptian military dissolved the Egyptian Parliament, which is filled with Islamic radicals and semi-radicals. The military then said it will be the legislative body running the country until the results of the election come in. The military is implying that if it doesn't like the results of the election, it might toss out the results. It would do this if the elections resulted in too many Salafist or hard line radical Islamic politicians being voted in.
The Muslim Brotherhood just got kicked in the teeth. The Brotherhood is hardly complaining. It is telling voters to go out and vote and to not worry that the military has placed itself back into a dominate political role. If this structure stays intact it means that Egypt's democracy will be like the one Turkey had for so many decades, i.e. a democracy where the military can void any election if jihadist politicians win too big a piece of the pie, a democracy where Al-Qaeda cannot take over by way of the ballot box.
Always remember, Hitler came to power in Germany through a series of elections, the early elections were fair and square, even the later ones held the possibility of Hitler losing despite his efforts to rig them.
No Muslim country has become a functioning democracy without the Turkish structure, that is without the military reserving the right to boot radical Islamic politicians out of office. It is like saying 1930s Germany will allow free elections except Nazis cannot win. Sounds like a pretty @#$%& good idea.
Egypt is the cultural center of the Arab world. As Egypt goes so goes the entire Arab world. This election is very important. We need CIA fingerprints. We want CIA fingerprints. We pray for CIA fingerprints.
Yes, we can point to a blunder, but overall the CIA is kicking nine yards of ass. Overnight the Yemeni Army flattened another Al-Qaeda fortress city. The internet is filled with images of liberated villagers dancing in the streets after being freed from the tyranny of the human monsters called Al-Qaeda. It looks like the aftermath of the US Army liberating Paris from the Nazis, powerful good propaganda.
The Yemeni Army is massing around the town of Azzan. This will be the last big battle of the conventional phase of this war. It might be the biggest battle yet. Over the last few weeks the Yemeni Army has killed about 50 Al-Qaeda soldiers and fighters a day. It is a relentless Al-Qaeda killing machine, spitting out dead bad guys like an assembly line.
In the rest of the Long War that is controlled by the CIA we continue to see fingerprints, coming at us in a fast and furious pace. There seems to be a sort of CIA blitz going on. It does indeed look like somebody took the muzzle off the attack dog. In fact it seems as though somebody took the muzzle off the attack dog and then whispered in its ear: "I'm sorry for muzzling you. Please make up for lost time by attacking every global jihadist problem with everything you've got." It seems like somebody wants to get reelected.
Here is the fingerprint of the day: Right before the big vote this weekend, the Egyptian military dissolved the Egyptian Parliament, which is filled with Islamic radicals and semi-radicals. The military then said it will be the legislative body running the country until the results of the election come in. The military is implying that if it doesn't like the results of the election, it might toss out the results. It would do this if the elections resulted in too many Salafist or hard line radical Islamic politicians being voted in.
The Muslim Brotherhood just got kicked in the teeth. The Brotherhood is hardly complaining. It is telling voters to go out and vote and to not worry that the military has placed itself back into a dominate political role. If this structure stays intact it means that Egypt's democracy will be like the one Turkey had for so many decades, i.e. a democracy where the military can void any election if jihadist politicians win too big a piece of the pie, a democracy where Al-Qaeda cannot take over by way of the ballot box.
Always remember, Hitler came to power in Germany through a series of elections, the early elections were fair and square, even the later ones held the possibility of Hitler losing despite his efforts to rig them.
No Muslim country has become a functioning democracy without the Turkish structure, that is without the military reserving the right to boot radical Islamic politicians out of office. It is like saying 1930s Germany will allow free elections except Nazis cannot win. Sounds like a pretty @#$%& good idea.
Egypt is the cultural center of the Arab world. As Egypt goes so goes the entire Arab world. This election is very important. We need CIA fingerprints. We want CIA fingerprints. We pray for CIA fingerprints.
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