Long War: The Obama Administration is alarmed that the forces winning the war in Syria are linked to Al-Qaeda. Gasp! In response it wants to give more non-lethal aid to the moderate (non-Al-Qaeda) fighters within the rebel movement. Maybe the moderate fighters will get portable toasters ovens, which will bolster their spirits and make them fight better. I'm not sure what's really going on within the Administration but Qatari Intelligence and the CIA seem to have the situation well in hand and are happy with the job Al-Qaeda is doing for them. The spooks seem confident that the Frankenstein monster they have created can be controlled. And they are probably right.
Here's the thing with war: You have to win. It never works to worry too much about the messy aftermath of a war if these worries prevent you from winning. Win the &^%$ war and then try to clean up the mess afterwards, that's what works.
As the Syrian War has progressed the bad guys (Assad's Alawite religious sect) have hardened and become fanatical. They are damn good. They are tough to beat. the Al-Qaeda warriors in the conflict are even better. They are feeding Assad a non-stop diet of strategic suicde bombers in downtown Damascus. The only way to win this war is with superhuman Al-Qaeda warriors.
Is the CIA making the right choice? The only way to know is to take the global temperature of the CIA. Which is to say, how is Langley doing across the entire Long War. Is it screwed up? Is it hitting on all eight cylinders everywhere else besides Syria? If we can ascertain that it is doing a kick-ass job overall, then we can also say it is doing a good job in Syria. We have to make this calculation because there is no way for us to know what Syrian Al-Qaeda fighters are really like. How the hell can know that, sitting on our fat butts here at home while drinking fancy imported beer?
So overall how does it look? Yesterday the French Foreign Legion killed 30 AQIM fighters including one of the top three AQIM leaders. Public accounts tell us that the Legion is getting intellience from the CIA, that isn't a guess, that is a fact. So Langley has moles in AQIM and used them to take out a top leader and his bodyguards. So Langley has its crap together.
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Qatar: Most Powerful Country on Earth? WTF?
Long War: Throughout the Mideast and North Africa the shape of the Long War is being molded by the tiny Gulf kingdom of Qatar. A few examples: Since the Arab Spring exploded across the region a few years ago the Muslim Brotherhood has become the dominate political force. Most important Brotherhood leaders now reside in Qatar and the organization seems to have been pretty much co-opted by Qatari Intelligence, giving it the ability to pull strings throughout the Arab world. The good guys in the Libyan War were financed and at least partially led by Qatar. The Syrian War has seen even greater influence from Qatar. Egypt is heavily dependent on Qatari financing and its leaders are beholden to the tiny kingdom. The Taliban peace talks are being held in Qatar. Al Jazerra, the news agency owned by Qatar, pretty much sets the tone for news coverage in the Muslim world. In instance after instance a common thread runs throughout most big LW battlefields, Qatar is running the show for the good guys.
One more example: In Tunisia we have seen a recent descent into chaos. But all of a sudden the hard line Islamic interior minister, Ali Larayedeh, is being elevated to a leadership position. Yes, Larayedh is a hardliner who will impose Shariah law on Tunisia but he is also a savage fighter against Al-Qaeda. This has Qatari fingerprints all over it. Qatar always makes this move: hard line Islamic leaders are put in charge of civilian, military, or militia-type organizations but these good bad guys are savage enemies of the real bad guys. This is the bargain, no democracy, no freedom of the press, but no Al-Qaeda and I think in the long run no socialism.
In the early years of the Cold War we saw the CIA almost completely in charge of the global conflict and the policy back then was to promote anti-communist, pro-free market dictators, without American troops dying on distant battlefields. This policy worked. Maybe you and I wish pie-in-the-sky, dreamy, idealistic democracy would have worked back then, maybe the CIA's hard-nosed but successful policy was a sad commentary on the state of mankind's moral development. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. But it %$#& worked. The &^%$* Soviet Union was destroyed. Ten thousand Soviet nuclear warheads no longer threaten to destroy the planet.
So let's abandon our dreamy philosophical nonsense and ask the main question of the day: How closely linked are Qatari Intelligence and the CIA? Consider what just happened today. The Free Syrian Army attacked and liberated an old and non-functioning Syrian nuclear reactor, which at one time was being used to make nuclear weapons for Assad. Today the old nuclear reactor has no strategic value, it is just a pile of junk, but it has big propaganda value in the US because this reactor was destroyed by Israel many years ago in an air raid. It looks like the Free Syrian Army is finishing up a job started by the Israelis. This news story will really only resonate in the US. It looks like CIA fingerprints are behind Qatari fingerprints. I know this sounds nebulous, but analyzing intelligence agencies is a game of shadows and I am seeing shadows within shadows that look pretty $#@% good to me.
One more example: In Tunisia we have seen a recent descent into chaos. But all of a sudden the hard line Islamic interior minister, Ali Larayedeh, is being elevated to a leadership position. Yes, Larayedh is a hardliner who will impose Shariah law on Tunisia but he is also a savage fighter against Al-Qaeda. This has Qatari fingerprints all over it. Qatar always makes this move: hard line Islamic leaders are put in charge of civilian, military, or militia-type organizations but these good bad guys are savage enemies of the real bad guys. This is the bargain, no democracy, no freedom of the press, but no Al-Qaeda and I think in the long run no socialism.
In the early years of the Cold War we saw the CIA almost completely in charge of the global conflict and the policy back then was to promote anti-communist, pro-free market dictators, without American troops dying on distant battlefields. This policy worked. Maybe you and I wish pie-in-the-sky, dreamy, idealistic democracy would have worked back then, maybe the CIA's hard-nosed but successful policy was a sad commentary on the state of mankind's moral development. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe. But it %$#& worked. The &^%$* Soviet Union was destroyed. Ten thousand Soviet nuclear warheads no longer threaten to destroy the planet.
So let's abandon our dreamy philosophical nonsense and ask the main question of the day: How closely linked are Qatari Intelligence and the CIA? Consider what just happened today. The Free Syrian Army attacked and liberated an old and non-functioning Syrian nuclear reactor, which at one time was being used to make nuclear weapons for Assad. Today the old nuclear reactor has no strategic value, it is just a pile of junk, but it has big propaganda value in the US because this reactor was destroyed by Israel many years ago in an air raid. It looks like the Free Syrian Army is finishing up a job started by the Israelis. This news story will really only resonate in the US. It looks like CIA fingerprints are behind Qatari fingerprints. I know this sounds nebulous, but analyzing intelligence agencies is a game of shadows and I am seeing shadows within shadows that look pretty $#@% good to me.
Friday, February 22, 2013
CIA Drinks Special Forces Milkshake
Charts: In the last blog I said that if the S&P 500 dropped to 1500, found support, and bounced up, then the technical damage done by the Doji Candlestick formations may be over. The broad index did exactly that, dropping 2% from its recent high and bouncing off 1500. What we need to see is healthy consolidation, not stalling action while the index flatlines, that's what Doji formations are: a form of stalling. We want to see the index move sideways in a rhythmic or trendline or wavelike fashion, not throw up scary candlesticks.
Fundamentals: Corporate profits as a % of GDP are at an all-time high. The value of the stock market as a % of GDP is near an all-time high. This is the main problem we are facing now. Corporate America has become super lean and efficient. It is churning out profits even though GDP is barley growing. This can't last forever. Corporations can only get so efficient. At some point GDP has to grow. the best way for this to happen is a free trade accord between America and the EU. Obama is working on that. He generally sucks at economic issues but he is right on this one.
Long War: 100 US Intelligence troops have landed in a border region near war-torn Mali to secure the area needed to build a US drone base. The Obama Administration calls them intelligence support troops. I think that means CIA paramilitary troops. I think that means the drone base will be CIA. I think Special Forces are not drinking the CIA's milkshake. This is really good news. (if I'm right)
Besides the repeated use of the word "intelligence" in the Executive branch dispatch I am making these above assumptions because there seems to be no more road blocks to the installation of Brennan as CIA Director. In the recent past, when Brennan seems to be moving forward, then the CIA has started kicking ass. When Brennan's nomination bogs down, then the CIA flounders, fearful of some lame director taking over which makes individual operatives want to cover their bungholes and act conservatively.
French and Malian troops have been bogged down in a savage firefight in the Malian town of Gao for several days. Yesterday they seem to have blasted the bad guys out of Gao and are hunting them down in the countryside. So the conventional phase of this war is still going forward in a positive manner.
Now the multi-year guerrilla phase is ready to start. The 7000 strong all-African Army that will fight the guerrilla war under French and CIA leadership is in place and nearly ready to go. It needs to establish road checkpoints across the jihadist threatened territory of the Northern Mali. These checkpoints need to be backed up with CIA drones. Then the lengthy guerrilla campaign will go smoothly.
If all this happens, and is deemed a success, then we will have a template for future LW wars (or campaigns). Native troops establish checkpoints, controlling the ground game, and CIA drones back them up with robotic air support.
Fundamentals: Corporate profits as a % of GDP are at an all-time high. The value of the stock market as a % of GDP is near an all-time high. This is the main problem we are facing now. Corporate America has become super lean and efficient. It is churning out profits even though GDP is barley growing. This can't last forever. Corporations can only get so efficient. At some point GDP has to grow. the best way for this to happen is a free trade accord between America and the EU. Obama is working on that. He generally sucks at economic issues but he is right on this one.
Long War: 100 US Intelligence troops have landed in a border region near war-torn Mali to secure the area needed to build a US drone base. The Obama Administration calls them intelligence support troops. I think that means CIA paramilitary troops. I think that means the drone base will be CIA. I think Special Forces are not drinking the CIA's milkshake. This is really good news. (if I'm right)
Besides the repeated use of the word "intelligence" in the Executive branch dispatch I am making these above assumptions because there seems to be no more road blocks to the installation of Brennan as CIA Director. In the recent past, when Brennan seems to be moving forward, then the CIA has started kicking ass. When Brennan's nomination bogs down, then the CIA flounders, fearful of some lame director taking over which makes individual operatives want to cover their bungholes and act conservatively.
French and Malian troops have been bogged down in a savage firefight in the Malian town of Gao for several days. Yesterday they seem to have blasted the bad guys out of Gao and are hunting them down in the countryside. So the conventional phase of this war is still going forward in a positive manner.
Now the multi-year guerrilla phase is ready to start. The 7000 strong all-African Army that will fight the guerrilla war under French and CIA leadership is in place and nearly ready to go. It needs to establish road checkpoints across the jihadist threatened territory of the Northern Mali. These checkpoints need to be backed up with CIA drones. Then the lengthy guerrilla campaign will go smoothly.
If all this happens, and is deemed a success, then we will have a template for future LW wars (or campaigns). Native troops establish checkpoints, controlling the ground game, and CIA drones back them up with robotic air support.
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
World Is A Trail Of Tears
Charts: Today saw a sharp downturn. The broad index was down over 1%. Small caps were down 2%. Materials and industrials were down 3%. We've seen Doji Candlestick formations over the past few weeks and have been expecting chart weakness. If this weakness morphs into a correction we have to zero in on support levels and volume to guess what comes next. First support is 1500 for the S&P 500. If that holds convingly the downturn might be over.
One chart that doesn't get much attention is the graph for the US Stock market as a percent of GDP. In other words the stock market is worth X amount and GDP is Y amount and X is a percent of Y. Right now the stock market is about 130% of GDP, normally it is about 75%. The chart shows the % amount has been declining in a classic trend line pattern over the past 13 years, the length of the secular bear market. We will talk more about this in later blogs.
Fundamentals: Fed minutes today said that the party won't last forever and the Fed will have to quit printing funny money someday. The market acted like a spoiled little baby who had a lollipop taken away. Waaa! We want funny money, don't stop printing funny money. I don't like it when the market acts childish because children are unpredictable.
Long War: Senator McCain is acting as though he will give up trying to block Obama's picks for Sec. of Defense and CIA. Why did he change his mind? More important, why was he being so stupid in the first place? Okay forget the theory he was smoking crack. Probably he was acting so porky because the CIA is allowing Qatari Intelligence to use Al-Qaeda to win the Syria War. Fair enough, that is pretty scary. I think McCain changed his mind about blocking the nominees because somebody he respects sat down and had a chat with him, telling him in no uncertain terms to "Back the %$^# off and greenlight these nominees, you jackass. You don't have a %&$# clue how we should win this war with your fat ass welded to a Washington swivel chair." In any case he does appear to be caving and soon we will have a dovish Sec. of Defense and a hawkish CIA Director.
Sounds good to me. I will agree with liberals and say "Bring our boys home. Get the US Army out of the Long War." Of course the liberals don't want to hear what I have to say next, which is: "Turn loose the spooks from Langley."
And what a good job the spooks have been doing. Syrian rebels have taken away Assad's artillery bases. So Assad has to use Scud missiles to hit back instead of artillery. Scud missiles are inaccurate terror weapons designed to hit civilians, not weapons of war that can be used against other armies. The fact that he is using these terror weapons shows that he is at the end of his rope.
In Mali the French need help from the CIA. It can't come soon enough. The French government is planning on pulling the Foreign Legion out in a couple weeks but the bad guys are striking back hard. Yesterday the Legion was caught in a firefight that involved hundreds of soldiers. If France pulled out right now Al-Qaeda would regain control over the north very quickly and there would be no chance of a second Western intervention.
Mali needs CIA drones and it needs them yesterday. Unfortunately the looming budget cuts known as sequestration will slash the production of drones dramatically. Sequestration is designed to cut the most vital of programs because of a half-baked notion that if the cuts are really really stupid then they won't occur. Right now the Pentagon is saying, "Please give us flexibility, we will cut the amount specified but let us pick and choose." Probably the brain dead politicians will pull their heads out of their bungholes just long enough to say to the Pentagon, "Okay."Then their heads will go back into their bungs and they will do more stupid brain-dead nonsense. This is the world we live in. It is a trail of tears.
One chart that doesn't get much attention is the graph for the US Stock market as a percent of GDP. In other words the stock market is worth X amount and GDP is Y amount and X is a percent of Y. Right now the stock market is about 130% of GDP, normally it is about 75%. The chart shows the % amount has been declining in a classic trend line pattern over the past 13 years, the length of the secular bear market. We will talk more about this in later blogs.
Fundamentals: Fed minutes today said that the party won't last forever and the Fed will have to quit printing funny money someday. The market acted like a spoiled little baby who had a lollipop taken away. Waaa! We want funny money, don't stop printing funny money. I don't like it when the market acts childish because children are unpredictable.
Long War: Senator McCain is acting as though he will give up trying to block Obama's picks for Sec. of Defense and CIA. Why did he change his mind? More important, why was he being so stupid in the first place? Okay forget the theory he was smoking crack. Probably he was acting so porky because the CIA is allowing Qatari Intelligence to use Al-Qaeda to win the Syria War. Fair enough, that is pretty scary. I think McCain changed his mind about blocking the nominees because somebody he respects sat down and had a chat with him, telling him in no uncertain terms to "Back the %$^# off and greenlight these nominees, you jackass. You don't have a %&$# clue how we should win this war with your fat ass welded to a Washington swivel chair." In any case he does appear to be caving and soon we will have a dovish Sec. of Defense and a hawkish CIA Director.
Sounds good to me. I will agree with liberals and say "Bring our boys home. Get the US Army out of the Long War." Of course the liberals don't want to hear what I have to say next, which is: "Turn loose the spooks from Langley."
And what a good job the spooks have been doing. Syrian rebels have taken away Assad's artillery bases. So Assad has to use Scud missiles to hit back instead of artillery. Scud missiles are inaccurate terror weapons designed to hit civilians, not weapons of war that can be used against other armies. The fact that he is using these terror weapons shows that he is at the end of his rope.
In Mali the French need help from the CIA. It can't come soon enough. The French government is planning on pulling the Foreign Legion out in a couple weeks but the bad guys are striking back hard. Yesterday the Legion was caught in a firefight that involved hundreds of soldiers. If France pulled out right now Al-Qaeda would regain control over the north very quickly and there would be no chance of a second Western intervention.
Mali needs CIA drones and it needs them yesterday. Unfortunately the looming budget cuts known as sequestration will slash the production of drones dramatically. Sequestration is designed to cut the most vital of programs because of a half-baked notion that if the cuts are really really stupid then they won't occur. Right now the Pentagon is saying, "Please give us flexibility, we will cut the amount specified but let us pick and choose." Probably the brain dead politicians will pull their heads out of their bungholes just long enough to say to the Pentagon, "Okay."Then their heads will go back into their bungs and they will do more stupid brain-dead nonsense. This is the world we live in. It is a trail of tears.
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Al-Qaeda Is Our Friend? How Can That Be?
Charts: The S&P 500 is throwing up a series of Doji Candlestick formations. Doji Candlesticks can best be viewed in a day to day chart sequence that covers a few weeks. In a chart like that a Doji looks like a little rectangle on any given day, a little box that pops up with the starting and finishing price for the day about the same, a kind of sawtooth pattern emerges. This is bearish, signaling a market peak, but it is only a short term or medium term pattern, unlike a big head and shoulder pattern which would be scary under these circumstance.
If we look at longer term patterns it looks better. The average secular (long term) bear market lasts 13 years. Today it looks as though a 13 year secular bear market is ending. The S&P 500 has to go up another 5% for it to convincingly beat its previous secular bull market peak, this would then be saying a new secular bull market is under way.
If 1500 is taken out in big volume and the Doji formation proves prescient, it could spell a new leg down. The jury would then be out on the 13 year bear market being over.
Cold War II: The US Navy isn't sure that the Chinese Navy really zapped the Japanese Navy with targeting radar ( a very hostile act, the prelude to weapons fire). We can ascertain this by reading between the lines in official US Navy pronouncements on the issue. China is actually acting pretty grown up all of a sudden, and Japan sort of looks like a whiny baby. Both countries are talking to the US Navy like they are kids talking to an adult. "He started it!" "No, he started it!" Cold War II looks to be mellowing out a little bit, for now.
Long War: Syrian rebels continue to take the wood to Assad's Army. The best group of fighters are Al-Qaeda militias. The Al-Qaeda fighters are ripping Assad apart. This is only happening because Qatari Intelligence seems to be pretty much running the show. Qatar is okay with using Al-Qaeda as a weapon. Probably the CIA wouldn't do this if it were 100% in the driver's seat. The Qataris probably think they can control the Al-Qaeda good bad guys once the bullets stop flying. The good guys have no choice but to go along with the Qatari game plan. This is beyond terrifying. This is like having your bowels turn into a block of ice. When analyzing terrifying geopolitical phenomena it is okay to scream out loud. Let it rip, belt out a wail of remorse, fear and panic, it helps, trusrt me.
If we look at longer term patterns it looks better. The average secular (long term) bear market lasts 13 years. Today it looks as though a 13 year secular bear market is ending. The S&P 500 has to go up another 5% for it to convincingly beat its previous secular bull market peak, this would then be saying a new secular bull market is under way.
If 1500 is taken out in big volume and the Doji formation proves prescient, it could spell a new leg down. The jury would then be out on the 13 year bear market being over.
Cold War II: The US Navy isn't sure that the Chinese Navy really zapped the Japanese Navy with targeting radar ( a very hostile act, the prelude to weapons fire). We can ascertain this by reading between the lines in official US Navy pronouncements on the issue. China is actually acting pretty grown up all of a sudden, and Japan sort of looks like a whiny baby. Both countries are talking to the US Navy like they are kids talking to an adult. "He started it!" "No, he started it!" Cold War II looks to be mellowing out a little bit, for now.
Long War: Syrian rebels continue to take the wood to Assad's Army. The best group of fighters are Al-Qaeda militias. The Al-Qaeda fighters are ripping Assad apart. This is only happening because Qatari Intelligence seems to be pretty much running the show. Qatar is okay with using Al-Qaeda as a weapon. Probably the CIA wouldn't do this if it were 100% in the driver's seat. The Qataris probably think they can control the Al-Qaeda good bad guys once the bullets stop flying. The good guys have no choice but to go along with the Qatari game plan. This is beyond terrifying. This is like having your bowels turn into a block of ice. When analyzing terrifying geopolitical phenomena it is okay to scream out loud. Let it rip, belt out a wail of remorse, fear and panic, it helps, trusrt me.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
North Korean Nuke
Cold War II: North Korea has successfully tested a miniaturized nuclear warhead. This took analysts by surprise. Previously North Korea has struggled with detonating primitive Hiroshima type A-bombs. This is a bit of big game-changer but not that momentous. North Korea will in the near future be able to target nuclear missiles on Japan and the Western United States. Beyond the capability this will give North Korea itself we can surmise that Iran will eventually get nuclear warheads that it can use with its already robust ballistic missiles, threatening Israel. The only way the US and Japan can counter this new threat is to expand their respective Aegis class anti-missile warship fleets. Despite the frenzy of military cuts we are experiencing right now the Aegis fleet will in time be expanded because public opinion will force the issue and Aegis technology will neutralize the bad guys' nascent nuclear arsenals.
Long War: The Syrian rebels have just captured the largest hydroelectric facility in the country. They just captured 24 fighter jets from Assad. They are mounting a powerful offensive against Assad on his home turf in Damascus. They are cutting off Assad's supply lines. The rebels are slowly advancing on all fronts. The credit for most of this goes to Qatari Intelligence, no doubt working hand in glove with the CIA. The endgame is probably still a year away but the rebels will win. Most conventional LW wars turn into guerrilla wars after the good guys win. This will probably happen with Syria because Iran will be working day and night to support an Assad guerrilla movement. Qatar will have to stay involved in Syria and battle Iran for the foreseeable future.
In Thailand, starting about three weeks ago, we saw an explosion of jihadist violence. The good guys were knocked back on their heels but have recently regrouped and are now taking the wood to the rebels, stopping at least one big terror strike in its track and wiping out all the bad guys in the process.
Hanging over all LW battlefields is the fate of the CIA leadership and the nomination of Brennan to Director. If Brennan is canned it will get hairy in jihadist land.
Long War: The Syrian rebels have just captured the largest hydroelectric facility in the country. They just captured 24 fighter jets from Assad. They are mounting a powerful offensive against Assad on his home turf in Damascus. They are cutting off Assad's supply lines. The rebels are slowly advancing on all fronts. The credit for most of this goes to Qatari Intelligence, no doubt working hand in glove with the CIA. The endgame is probably still a year away but the rebels will win. Most conventional LW wars turn into guerrilla wars after the good guys win. This will probably happen with Syria because Iran will be working day and night to support an Assad guerrilla movement. Qatar will have to stay involved in Syria and battle Iran for the foreseeable future.
In Thailand, starting about three weeks ago, we saw an explosion of jihadist violence. The good guys were knocked back on their heels but have recently regrouped and are now taking the wood to the rebels, stopping at least one big terror strike in its track and wiping out all the bad guys in the process.
Hanging over all LW battlefields is the fate of the CIA leadership and the nomination of Brennan to Director. If Brennan is canned it will get hairy in jihadist land.
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
McCain Smokes Crack
Long War: All of a sudden its gotten real hairy in the LW. In Thailand and Malaysia we have seen low level Islamic insurgencies blaze up to the size of the big bad guerrilla conflicts of the Mideast, especially in Thailand where innocent civilians are starting to get mowed down, buildings blown up, cops killed in gun battles, bad stuff.
In Mali we find out that French fighter-bombers are only hitting paper targets in the deep desert where the bad guys are holed up. And a new guerrilla war has taken root in Mali with suicide bombers hitting soft targets. Many of the bombing victories from the early stages of the Mali War were also cardboard and paper targets, fake training camps, and other artful devices. AQIM is not hurt as bad as we thought, although it did get kicked out into the desert, it did lose to the French in stage one of the conflict, there is no denying that. However it was more of a strategic retreat than a total rout.
One of the reasons for much of this bad news is that the CIA has returned to wandering the wilderness, rudderless without a permanent, kick-ass, Director. When it wanders the wilderness, the CIA loses its mojo, bad things happen on planet Earth.
A cabal of Senators has put a "hold" on Brennan's nomination as CIA Director. A hold is like a filibuster and theoretically has no time limit. Obama is getting boxed in a corner. Before they will green-light Brennan the Senators are asking the White House to release crucial classified information about the CIA attack drone program, this information can be used to challenge the drone program in US civilians courts. If civilian courts start ruling on the legality of the drone program, it will immediately cease to exist. The drone program may be the most awesome forc on Earth, but we just found its version of kryptonite (the US Court system). So Brennan is at risk of having his nomination jerked away if Obama really is forced to release classified info to these Senators, because he will probably not release anything.
The President then will have to put up a weaker candidate for CIA Director because the doves are ruling the roost over the hawks. This is only possible beause Senator McCain has become a big dove and is throwing his weight onto the wrong side of this arguement within the Senate.
One explanation for McCain's behavior is that he has started smoking crack. This explanation polls highest among the analysts at Dave's Market Update. The chief analyst recently said, "Hell yes, McCain is smoking crack, look at the burn marks on his hands, crack-pipe burns."
In Mali we find out that French fighter-bombers are only hitting paper targets in the deep desert where the bad guys are holed up. And a new guerrilla war has taken root in Mali with suicide bombers hitting soft targets. Many of the bombing victories from the early stages of the Mali War were also cardboard and paper targets, fake training camps, and other artful devices. AQIM is not hurt as bad as we thought, although it did get kicked out into the desert, it did lose to the French in stage one of the conflict, there is no denying that. However it was more of a strategic retreat than a total rout.
One of the reasons for much of this bad news is that the CIA has returned to wandering the wilderness, rudderless without a permanent, kick-ass, Director. When it wanders the wilderness, the CIA loses its mojo, bad things happen on planet Earth.
A cabal of Senators has put a "hold" on Brennan's nomination as CIA Director. A hold is like a filibuster and theoretically has no time limit. Obama is getting boxed in a corner. Before they will green-light Brennan the Senators are asking the White House to release crucial classified information about the CIA attack drone program, this information can be used to challenge the drone program in US civilians courts. If civilian courts start ruling on the legality of the drone program, it will immediately cease to exist. The drone program may be the most awesome forc on Earth, but we just found its version of kryptonite (the US Court system). So Brennan is at risk of having his nomination jerked away if Obama really is forced to release classified info to these Senators, because he will probably not release anything.
The President then will have to put up a weaker candidate for CIA Director because the doves are ruling the roost over the hawks. This is only possible beause Senator McCain has become a big dove and is throwing his weight onto the wrong side of this arguement within the Senate.
One explanation for McCain's behavior is that he has started smoking crack. This explanation polls highest among the analysts at Dave's Market Update. The chief analyst recently said, "Hell yes, McCain is smoking crack, look at the burn marks on his hands, crack-pipe burns."
Sunday, February 10, 2013
A Long Road Ahead
Long War: There are three major wars or campaigns raging within the Long War at present: 1) Afghanistan. 2) Syria. 3) Mali. The CIA attack drone program is only operational in Yemen and the Pakistan tribal region. Amazingly, CIA attack drones aren't flying and fighting within any of the central battlefields of any of the 3 major wars, although I admit the Pak tribal belt is strategically vital to the Afghan War; nevertheless, CIA attack drones do not (as far as we know) operate anywhere within Afghanistan. CIA surveillance drones are free to fly anywhere. But attack drones are muzzled to a degree by the White House and Senate.
A drone base is being built in Algeria to be used against the bad guys in Mali, which is the most important of the three wars. US Special Forces will operate Mali attack drones, not the CIA. At least this is the structure that is evolving at present. And a screwed up structure it is. How many times has this blog advised our civilian leaders in Washington to leave the CIA the %$^# alone? Why aren't they listening? Of course we know the answer, the civilian leadership is bunch of pinheads.
We are feeling the loss of General Petraeus as CIA Director. Hell, he was grabbing assets away from the US Army while he was Director, things were going gret back then. Now the Army is drinking the CIA's milkshake. It is not good to have the CIA's milkshake sucked away by Special Forces. We want is the CIA taking over Special Forces (not the other way around) and simply rebadge the SEALs, Green Beret, etc... within the CIA Paramiltary Force, the CIA's ground forces. We want the CIA's ground forces to get hundreds of times bigger.
But the new Director hasn't taken over yet. The senate is hammering away at Brennan, in the hearings. The Senate Intelligence Committee is trying to grow the stones needed to turn down Brennan. Assuming that doesn't happen, then Brennan will be confirmed and he is going to work night and day to overcome the damage caused by the CIA's long meandering trip through the wilderness, when the Deputy Director was in charge.
In 2014 the CIA drone program becomes operational throughout Afghanistan and the US Army, USMC leave. That is baked into the cake. This is a good thing. It gives the CIA an automatic shot of testosterone. Before that happens, the CIA needs to take over the Mali drone base. If that happens the CIA will be on steroids This will be goal one for the new Director. To make it happen he needs to gut punch the US Special Forces. Is that easy? Is it easy to gut punch a Green Beret? You try it. I won't.
A drone base is being built in Algeria to be used against the bad guys in Mali, which is the most important of the three wars. US Special Forces will operate Mali attack drones, not the CIA. At least this is the structure that is evolving at present. And a screwed up structure it is. How many times has this blog advised our civilian leaders in Washington to leave the CIA the %$^# alone? Why aren't they listening? Of course we know the answer, the civilian leadership is bunch of pinheads.
We are feeling the loss of General Petraeus as CIA Director. Hell, he was grabbing assets away from the US Army while he was Director, things were going gret back then. Now the Army is drinking the CIA's milkshake. It is not good to have the CIA's milkshake sucked away by Special Forces. We want is the CIA taking over Special Forces (not the other way around) and simply rebadge the SEALs, Green Beret, etc... within the CIA Paramiltary Force, the CIA's ground forces. We want the CIA's ground forces to get hundreds of times bigger.
But the new Director hasn't taken over yet. The senate is hammering away at Brennan, in the hearings. The Senate Intelligence Committee is trying to grow the stones needed to turn down Brennan. Assuming that doesn't happen, then Brennan will be confirmed and he is going to work night and day to overcome the damage caused by the CIA's long meandering trip through the wilderness, when the Deputy Director was in charge.
In 2014 the CIA drone program becomes operational throughout Afghanistan and the US Army, USMC leave. That is baked into the cake. This is a good thing. It gives the CIA an automatic shot of testosterone. Before that happens, the CIA needs to take over the Mali drone base. If that happens the CIA will be on steroids This will be goal one for the new Director. To make it happen he needs to gut punch the US Special Forces. Is that easy? Is it easy to gut punch a Green Beret? You try it. I won't.
Thursday, February 7, 2013
Drones Are All We've Got
Long War: The nominee for CIA Director, John Brennan, was in on the begining of George Bush's CIA drone program. As a Nartional Security Advisor, Brennan was the leading force in convincing Obama to continue the drone program and later expand it 15-fold (Wow!). Brennan was the architect of the CIA's drone program in Yemen, a jihadist playground that at one point held more Al-Qaeda operatives than Afghanistan and Pakistan combined. The Yemeni program can only be described as brilliant and it throttled back the gravest danger zone in the Long War up till Mali. Brennan is Mr. Drone. Here's the rub, with US troops pulling out of Afghanistan and massive military cuts on the horizon, all the good guys have in their arsenal is drones. Without drones we lose the Long War, plain and simple.
The Senators didn't like Brennan telling them to shove their questions about CIA enhanced interrogation where the sun doesn't shine. In their witless anger the brain-dead and mindless politicians decided to strike back. They are demanding documents from the Obama Administration detailing and justifying how CIA drones are used to kill Al-Qaeda (and other bad guys) who are US citizens. The Senators are making a power play, they want more oversight and control over the CIA and think this malarkey about US citizens playes well in Peoria, yeah, like CIA drones are gunning down Boy Scouts in midtown America. This is bad.
Many of the world's top jihadists are US citizens, in fact the most effective bad guy leaders are US citizens. More to the point it would be easy for Al-Qaeda to recruit US citizens and fill their ranks with drone proof bad guys if laws were passed preventing drone usage against US citizens.
Obama needs to step it up. He needs to protect the CIA. He needs to keep citizen oversight to a minimum. He needs to make sure our only effective attack dog is not wearing a muzzle.
The Senators didn't like Brennan telling them to shove their questions about CIA enhanced interrogation where the sun doesn't shine. In their witless anger the brain-dead and mindless politicians decided to strike back. They are demanding documents from the Obama Administration detailing and justifying how CIA drones are used to kill Al-Qaeda (and other bad guys) who are US citizens. The Senators are making a power play, they want more oversight and control over the CIA and think this malarkey about US citizens playes well in Peoria, yeah, like CIA drones are gunning down Boy Scouts in midtown America. This is bad.
Many of the world's top jihadists are US citizens, in fact the most effective bad guy leaders are US citizens. More to the point it would be easy for Al-Qaeda to recruit US citizens and fill their ranks with drone proof bad guys if laws were passed preventing drone usage against US citizens.
Obama needs to step it up. He needs to protect the CIA. He needs to keep citizen oversight to a minimum. He needs to make sure our only effective attack dog is not wearing a muzzle.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
A New Sheriff In Town
Charts: First support for the S&P 500 is a band between 1498-1502, the band centers on the round number 1500. Next support is 1474, the 2012 peak. The index has screeched up 6% year to date. It needs to consolidate and bounce up off these support levels if we are to avoid the harsh corrections we've seen in this bull market thus far.
Long War: The presumptive CIA Director, John Brennan, recently completed his first round of Senate hearings. Anything involving the CIA is a closed hearing. The Senators left the hearing spitting mad. Normally they wouldn't say much to the media after this closed door hearing but the politicians were so angry they flapped their gums like gossipy schoolgirls. They said Brennan was not forthcoming on his views on enhanced interrogation (torture) or his views on rendition (farming torture out to allied intelligence agencies). They had specifically told the nominee to have his positions ready to go. But NOOOO, he stonewalled them, telling them to shove their questions about torture where the sun doesn't shine. My oh my, one simply doesn't talk to senators in that manner, especially when they have the power to can your nomination. Does anybody know how to spell brass balls?
But the senators won't can his nomination, they don't have the stones to do that. And they will be starting off in a very weak position once Brennan takes over. Civilian oversight may be almost nonexistent with the new Director. I can't imagine a better start to the Brennan era.
The French Foreign Legion had been knocking the crap out of Al-Qaeda in Mali. Over the last couple days the bad guys have regrouped and started fighting back, halting the string of lightning victories enjoyed by the good guys. AQIM is tough. AQIM doesn't just roll over and play dead. The French have responded by mobilizing Tuareg rebels, throwing them into the fight, even though this is controversial and anti-democratic; also it puts France in the position of dictating the eventual political map of Mali, tsk tsk. Good move, anything to win. This move has CIA fingerprints all over it. Isn't it nice to have a new sheriff in town?
Cold War II: Over the past year Japanese fighter jets have scrambled against Chinese fighter jets about 100 times. Nothing like this has happened since WW II. A week ago Chinese warships started painting Japanese warships with targeting radar, a prelude to launching missile volleys. This has never happened before. Defense experts say that war between Japan and China is impossible for two reasons: such a war is "unthinkable" and the trade flows between the two Asian giants are large. This is what I have to say about "unthinkable"... I just thought about such a war so its not unthinkable. As far as trade flows... there is no historic relationship between high economic activity between two great powers and peaceful outcome to disputes; in other words throughout history big powers that trade with each other go to war all the time.
America is about to slash its military spending. Conventional firepower is going take a big hit. Do you think this has anything to do with the Great Dragon roaring so loudly. Is this a good day to give up sniffing glue? No, it is a bad day to give up sniffing glue, which is my cute way of saying we need to keep all our firepower up to snuff, but that's not going to happen.
Long War: The presumptive CIA Director, John Brennan, recently completed his first round of Senate hearings. Anything involving the CIA is a closed hearing. The Senators left the hearing spitting mad. Normally they wouldn't say much to the media after this closed door hearing but the politicians were so angry they flapped their gums like gossipy schoolgirls. They said Brennan was not forthcoming on his views on enhanced interrogation (torture) or his views on rendition (farming torture out to allied intelligence agencies). They had specifically told the nominee to have his positions ready to go. But NOOOO, he stonewalled them, telling them to shove their questions about torture where the sun doesn't shine. My oh my, one simply doesn't talk to senators in that manner, especially when they have the power to can your nomination. Does anybody know how to spell brass balls?
But the senators won't can his nomination, they don't have the stones to do that. And they will be starting off in a very weak position once Brennan takes over. Civilian oversight may be almost nonexistent with the new Director. I can't imagine a better start to the Brennan era.
The French Foreign Legion had been knocking the crap out of Al-Qaeda in Mali. Over the last couple days the bad guys have regrouped and started fighting back, halting the string of lightning victories enjoyed by the good guys. AQIM is tough. AQIM doesn't just roll over and play dead. The French have responded by mobilizing Tuareg rebels, throwing them into the fight, even though this is controversial and anti-democratic; also it puts France in the position of dictating the eventual political map of Mali, tsk tsk. Good move, anything to win. This move has CIA fingerprints all over it. Isn't it nice to have a new sheriff in town?
Cold War II: Over the past year Japanese fighter jets have scrambled against Chinese fighter jets about 100 times. Nothing like this has happened since WW II. A week ago Chinese warships started painting Japanese warships with targeting radar, a prelude to launching missile volleys. This has never happened before. Defense experts say that war between Japan and China is impossible for two reasons: such a war is "unthinkable" and the trade flows between the two Asian giants are large. This is what I have to say about "unthinkable"... I just thought about such a war so its not unthinkable. As far as trade flows... there is no historic relationship between high economic activity between two great powers and peaceful outcome to disputes; in other words throughout history big powers that trade with each other go to war all the time.
America is about to slash its military spending. Conventional firepower is going take a big hit. Do you think this has anything to do with the Great Dragon roaring so loudly. Is this a good day to give up sniffing glue? No, it is a bad day to give up sniffing glue, which is my cute way of saying we need to keep all our firepower up to snuff, but that's not going to happen.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
CIA Is Back
Long War: After David Petraeus was eliminated last year as CIA Director the agency went through a long walk through the wilderness, not sure if a hawk or a dove would be appointed as the next director. Not surprisingly, the bad guys made huge progress in the global struggle during this period of inactivity on the part of Langley. Specifically, AQIM (Al-Qaeda North Africa) decided to take over the other half of Mali that it didn't already own. Fortunately Obama did appoint a hawk to take over the CIA, a firebreather in fact. John Brennan is the architect of the CIA's drone program, the best of the best.
And with the appointment of Brennan, even though the Senate has not yet confirmed him, like a coiled spring Langley sprang into action. A coup was staged against the jihadist state of Eritrea. The coup did not succeed in overthrowing the government of Eritrea but now that evil little country has a permanent opposition agitating for change night and day, forcing the jihadist government to turn inward; this is a bigger deal than it sounds because it sends a message to bad guys everywhere: the CIA is back.
France sent the Foreign Legion into action against Al-Qaeda in Mali, knocking the bad guys out of all population centers. At first the Obama Administration said it wasn't helping France at all. But the French told the media that they were receiving all sorts of help from "American Intelligence." Then Obama said a CIA drone base was being built in Algeria to go after AQIM on a long term basis. Right before that announcement Algeria attacked Al-Qaeda hostage-takers along the border of Algeria and Mali. Algeria didn't even try to rescue the hostages, no it just wiped out everybody, good, bad and indifferent. This attack had big CIA fingerprints on it. The attack was a monster body blow to Al-Qaeda. President Obama's change of heart probably came from Hillary Clinton holding his fingers to the fire, dragging him kicking and screaming back to fighting the Long War.
France continues to attack Al-Qaeda in North Africa, acting with unusual aggression. They wouldn't be that tough on their own. They are certainly being led by the CIA. For one thing France is obviously using US satellite imagery for its current bombing campaign, which means NSA and CIA are knee deep in the war.
While all this was going on the CIA began intercepting Iranian missile shipment across the Mideast, acting through the US Navy and local Arab allies.
This is all very promising. Still, there is a lot of Long War to fight. The USMC and US Army are going to leave Afghanistan much more quickly than anyone imagines. The CIA has the right leadership to take over. As always, it just needs civilian leadership to get out of the way.
And with the appointment of Brennan, even though the Senate has not yet confirmed him, like a coiled spring Langley sprang into action. A coup was staged against the jihadist state of Eritrea. The coup did not succeed in overthrowing the government of Eritrea but now that evil little country has a permanent opposition agitating for change night and day, forcing the jihadist government to turn inward; this is a bigger deal than it sounds because it sends a message to bad guys everywhere: the CIA is back.
France sent the Foreign Legion into action against Al-Qaeda in Mali, knocking the bad guys out of all population centers. At first the Obama Administration said it wasn't helping France at all. But the French told the media that they were receiving all sorts of help from "American Intelligence." Then Obama said a CIA drone base was being built in Algeria to go after AQIM on a long term basis. Right before that announcement Algeria attacked Al-Qaeda hostage-takers along the border of Algeria and Mali. Algeria didn't even try to rescue the hostages, no it just wiped out everybody, good, bad and indifferent. This attack had big CIA fingerprints on it. The attack was a monster body blow to Al-Qaeda. President Obama's change of heart probably came from Hillary Clinton holding his fingers to the fire, dragging him kicking and screaming back to fighting the Long War.
France continues to attack Al-Qaeda in North Africa, acting with unusual aggression. They wouldn't be that tough on their own. They are certainly being led by the CIA. For one thing France is obviously using US satellite imagery for its current bombing campaign, which means NSA and CIA are knee deep in the war.
While all this was going on the CIA began intercepting Iranian missile shipment across the Mideast, acting through the US Navy and local Arab allies.
This is all very promising. Still, there is a lot of Long War to fight. The USMC and US Army are going to leave Afghanistan much more quickly than anyone imagines. The CIA has the right leadership to take over. As always, it just needs civilian leadership to get out of the way.
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