Monday, March 7, 2011

Obama, Break the Cycle

Long War: The West Point Terrorism Center says more jihadist fighters captured in Iraq came from Libya than any other country, except Saudi Arabia. On a per capita basis, Libya produced more jihadist fighters than any other country on Earth. Almost all the Libyan jihadists came from eastern Libya, where the Rage Rebels now have control. The Libyan Rage Rebellion must be using jihadist fighters as foot soldiers but it is not yet controlled by the Jihadists. This is not necessarily a permanent state of affairs, everyday Islamist (jihad-lite) leaders gain more control over the rebellion.
Libyan Al-Qaeda training camps are, fortunately, thought to be located in territory now controlled by Gaddafi. As far as we know, at present, the Rage Rebels are not reaching out to Al-Qaeda but rather to America, asking for a No-Fly Zone and a No-Drive Zone (NFZ and NDZ). Team Obama is apparently saying "no" to the Rage Rebels' request and instead asking Saudi Arabia to arm the rebels. Saudi Arabia is busily tamping down the early embers of its own Rage Rebellion and is in no position to suddenly take on the mantle of global superpower.
Over the weekend Libyan rebels were clearly losing to Gaddafi's army and it would be natural for them to ask Al-Qaeda for help. Doing nothing is not a safe and conservative policy for America. When a deer freezes in the headlights of an oncoming car, it is not safe and prudent for the deer to stand still and do nothing.

Think about the successful early months of the Afghan War, when the tribal based Northern Alliance did all the ground fighting (led by the CIA) and America backed them with air power. That was an aggressive NFZ and NDZ and it led to an early victory that was latter partially squandered by policies such as the foolish anti-War Lord campaign. Now think about the more passive NFZ America maintained over Iraq after the first Gulf War; half measures like that always lead to big problems later. Not all NFZ are created equal.

And America needs desperately to take control over the various Rage Rebellions, taking over and leading the Libyan Rage Rebellion is the only way to do that. I'll leave you with one morsel to chew on: the Rage Rebels in Bahrain cannot agree on a set of demands, except a second increase in the minimum wage. They have already demanded one increase of 40%. But they are united on demanding a second larger increase. The Rage was ignited by inflation. At every corner the Rage makes inflation worse. The Rage is caught in a leaderless negative feedback loop. Only America can break the cycle. If this does not happen, then we should probably take a defensive stance with our investments.

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