Long War: French and American fighter jets are tearing apart Gaddafi's armored columns. American cruise missiles are decimating Gaddafi's command and control centers. Libyan Rage Rebels have recaptured at least one town and are moving the front line west, toward Tripoli. Gaddafi's forces are digging in and girding for a long campaign.
Obama was dragged kicking and screaming to make the decision to go to war against Gaddafis's rump Libyan state by Hillary Clinton. Cutting through the infantile wail of Obama's kicking and screaming, Hillary made an announcement that she would not run for President. She is the only candidate who could beat Obama in a Democratic primary race and her decision not to run probably pushed Obama to reluctantly follow her lead. Initially Obama said the goal of Operation Odyssey Dawn was only to protect civilians, not oust Gaddafi. Then he switched positions and said Gaddafi must go. France is actually doing most of the fighting and it says the goal of the war is to take Gaddafi down. Def. Sec. Gates says the goal is only to protect civilians.
While all this was going on, over the weekend, an election was held in Egypt on a new constitution that was essentially designed by the Muslim Brotherhood and may hand the country over to the bad guys when parliamentary elections are held in a few months. This weekend's election was won by the Muslim Brotherhood.
For the bull market to continue not only must Operation Odyssey Dawn destroy Gaddafi, it must also evolve into the US taking over the Libyan Rage Rebellion, purging it of Al-Qaeda elements and then it must further evolve toward the US reasserting control over Egypt, severing the alliance that has developed between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian Army. And, finally, it must evolve into America taking control over the dozen or so Rage Rebellions exploding across the region.
To that end there are reports of the Egyptian Army funneling weapons to the Libyan Rage Rebels, so a baby step has been made in the right direction. The Rage Rebellions continue to flare throughout the Mideast. Either Al-Qaeda and its parent (the Muslim Brotherhood) will co-opt the Rage or America and its allies will. If America really clobbers Gaddafi, then maybe it will be able to convince Egyptian voters not to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood.
In Operation Odyssey Dawn we see a parallel between the Bay of Pigs /Cuban Missile Crisis. I gave an overly short thumbnail sketch of the Cuban Missile Crisis a few days ago and it was misleading (sorry). JFK didn't so much grow a set during the CMC as a set was forced upon him. In fact he was probably going to back down to Soviet Premier Khrushchev but Air Force general Curtis Le May (on his own hook) started firing ICBMs over the USSR at the height of the crisis. Also, the Canadian Navy disobeyed a direct order from the socialist prime minister of Canada to not join the US Navy blockade. The Soviets saw the US /Canadian military essentially mutinying against their dovish civilian leadership and grew terrified that America's vastly superior nuclear arsenal would be unleashed against them. This is why the good guys won.
Hillary Clinton is today's Curtis LeMay.
Monday, March 21, 2011
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