Obama Confused

Charts: The broad index is forming a wedge pattern. This pattern means the market is making up its mind whether to favor the bulls or the bears. When and if it breaks hard out of the wedge, the direction it then takes should decide the debate. The Libyan Civil War is the primary cause of the wedge pattern, this is what the market is casting judgment on.

Long War: Libyan rebel leaders say they are getting fresh weapons from the government of Qatar. So we are seeing stronger evidence of CIA involvement in the Libyan Civil War, which is good.
Britain and France are drafting a resolution in the UN Security Council for a No-Fly Zone. Since Russia and China will veto the resolution, this effectively kills the No-Fly Zone. It is hard to understand what Obama has in mind by dangling the NFZ in front of the rebels and then taking it away. On the surface it seems incredibly stupid.
And it is impossible so far to know what is really happening with the CIA and the Libyan rebels. On the ground, the rebels are trying to launch an offensive on the town of Bin Jaward and Gaddafi's army is attacking Zawiyah. These are the two key battles right now.
Gaddafi reached out to the Egyptian Army. The contact is reported in the mainstream press but we obviously don't know what he is saying to the Egyptian officers although he will clearly want to build allies as the LCW rages on. Gaddafi is still receiving oil revenue and the rebels are not. If 75% of Libya's production is shut down that still leaves hundreds of millions of dollar in yearly revenue flowing into Gaddafi's coffers.